Coaching Carousel Thoughts

[Dantés]

Seeing the names that are being thrown around as coaching candidates right now has reinforced something I've been thinking for a while.

The NFL coordinators who currently seem to stand the best chance of landing a HC gig are:

• Robert Saleh, DC
• Eric Bieniemy, OC
• Arthur Smith, OC
• Brian Daboll, OC

2020 Hires:

• Kevin Stefanski, OC
• Joe Judge, STC

2019 Hires:

• Matt LaFleur, OC
• Vic Fangio, DC
• Brian Flores, DC
• Freddie Kitchens, OC

2018 Hires:

• Pat Shurmur, OC
• Matt Patricia, DC
• Steve Wilks, DC
• Mike Vrabel, DC
• Frank *****, OC
• Matt Nagy, OC

2017 Hires:

• Vance Joseph, DC
• Sean McDermott, DC
• Sean McVay, OC
• Anthony Lynn, OC

2016 Hires:

• Doug Pederson, OC
• Adam Gase, OC
• Dirk Koetter, OC
• Hue Jackson, OC
• Ben McAdoo, OC

So in the last five years, of the 21 coordinators who have become head coaches, 13 were offensive coordinators, 7 were defensive coordinators, and 1 was a special teams coordinator. And now three of the four strongest candidates are offensive guys as well.

Offensive coaches are just in higher demand. This makes sense. The best avenue to sustained success in the NFL is on the offensive side of the ball. Strong offense and good QB play are much more stable, year over year, than defensive success.

This increased demand for offensive guys means that even if you find a great defensive head coach, that guy's OC position is either going to suck or be a revolving door.

For instance, Vrabel is about to hire his 3rd OC heading into his fourth season.

McDermott hired Roman, fired Roman, promoted Lynn, lost Lynn, hired Daboll, and is now about to lose Daboll.

And then there are guys who have struggled to even find OC's that they want to keep, let alone who other teams see as HC material (e.g. Patricia in DET, Carroll, Fangio, etc.).

Because OC's are in higher demand for HC jobs, there are just fewer of them available for coordinator jobs, and it's harder to keep them. Great DC's will get jobs too, no doubt, but at a lower rate. And of course, the opposite is true-- with fewer getting HC jobs, there are more available to be coordinators.

 

[Poppa San]

Offense puts butts in the seats. Defense is "boring." Which do owners want to see? All else being a crapshoot of course. Truly they want to hoist the Lombardi but they'd take packed stadiums also.

 

[Dantés]

Offense puts butts in the seats. Defense is "boring." Which do owners want to see? All else being a crapshoot of course. Truly they want to hoist the Lombardi but they'd take packed stadiums also.

I do think that there is an element of that-- offense sells.

But there's a legit on-field reason too. Offensive success is more sustainable year to year, not because offensive success doesn't fluctuate, but because it doesn't fluctuate as drastically as defensive success.

In my opinion, this is because offensive success is so strongly tied to one player-- the QB. So stability there will make a huge difference in terms of stability for the offense as a whole. On defense, it's less about one player and more about the unit altogether. And it's just harder to keep, say, 8 key guys together and consistent.

 

[Dantés]

The counter to my logic is that there's a mark inefficiency to take advantage of in defensive coaches.

If we assume that coaching talent is evenly distributed between offensive and defensive coaches, then the lower demand for defensive guys means that any given team has a better chance of landing a great one.

But I still think the downside of a revolving door at OC outweighs the upside of maybe finding a difference making defensive coach.

 

[ARPackFan]

I do think that there is an element of that-- offense sells.

But there's a legit on-field reason too. Offensive success is more sustainable year to year, not because offensive success doesn't fluctuate, but because it doesn't fluctuate as drastically as defensive success.

In my opinion, this is because offensive success is so strongly tied to one player-- the QB. So stability there will make a huge difference in terms of stability for the offense as a whole. On defense, it's less about one player and more about the unit altogether. And it's just harder to keep, say, 8 key guys together and consistent.

I'd rather take an OC to be the head coach for many of the reasons you point out. On PFT this morning Florio pointed out that the Vikings have had three different OCs in the last three years and with Kubiak probably retiring it will be 4 for 4. I doubt having to learn a new system every year is a path to consistency for any offense. Rodgers is smart but it his game got better once he learned the new system and understood the concepts.

 

[Dantés]

Someone explain this to me:

I have heard several times from media types that cover the league that there will be a huge firestorm of discontentment if Bieniemy doesn't get a head coaching job, because of the assumption that it would be based on ethnicity.

Now first things first-- Bieniemy is a great HC candidate. I don't even think that needs to be explained. He should be getting serious consideration.

But as the game of coaching musical chairs starts winding down, it looks like another HC candidate might not have a chair-- Brian Daboll.

On paper, Brian Daboll is just straight up a better candidate than Bieniemy. The offense in Buffalo has been all his (as opposed to KC, where Reid is obviously the first and foremost architect of the offense). He's done more play calling. Developing Allen was the single biggest QB development job we've seen in recent memory. And his offense this year was better than KC's.

I have not heard one single word, whisper, or peep of frustration as it looks like Daboll won't get hired. The assumption will simply be that it didn't work out this go around and ethnicity won't even come up.

 

[ARPackFan]

Two OCs for teams that are still playing. I think part of the problems is that owners and/or GMs get an itchy trigger finger on making a HC hire and are afraid the coach will be gone or they may get turned down if they wait too long. A no hire and no contact restriction until after the SB may help.

 

[Dantés]

Two OCs for teams that are still playing. I think part of the problems is that owners and/or GMs get an itchy trigger finger on making a HC hire and are afraid the coach will be gone or they may get turned down if they wait too long. A no hire and no contact restriction until after the SB may help.

Oh totally. I buy that and I don’t think it’s weird at all that neither has a job yet given that they’re tied up.

But why is there all this threatened outrage in the media about Bieniemy, and total silence on Daboll, an objectively better candidate?

 

[Poppa San]

Oh totally. I buy that and I don’t think it’s weird at all that neither has a job yet given that they’re tied up.

But why is there all this threatened outrage in the media about Bieniemy, and total silence on Daboll, an objectively better candidate?

You are asking why the media seems to be biased towards certain candidates? They usually are and have been for quite some time. It's always time for "someone." This year the arrow is stuck on Bienemy.

 

[Dantés]

You are asking why the media seems to be biased towards certain candidates? They usually are and have been for quite some time. It's always time for "someone." This year the arrow is stuck on Bienemy.

It’s not stuck in Bieniemy, it’s stuck on his skin color.

 

[Poppa San]

It’s not stuck in Bieniemy, it’s stuck on his skin color.

Research the media and societal reaction to the Ray Rhodes dismissal in GB.

 

[buggybill2003]

It’s not stuck in Bieniemy, it’s stuck on his skin color.

Uncalled for.

 

[Dantés]

Uncalled for.

I agree— it’s totally uncalled for.

People should focus on Bieniemy’s ample coaching merits and not his skin color.

 

[Half Empty]

I don't pay much attention to other coaching situations, and it's been around for a long time, but isn't the Rooney Rule designed for exactly that reason?

 

[Dantés]

I don't pay much attention to other coaching situations, and it's been around for a long time, but isn't the Rooney Rule designed for exactly that reason?

Yes, the Rooney Rule assumes racial prejudice on behalf of NFL teams and requires them to interview people of a particular skin tone.

Now the NFL is offering draft pick compensation for hiring people of a particular skin tone.

 

[Dantés]

More and more I hear people who cover the NFL assessing hires based solely on skin color. It’s so disgusting.

There is fairly open racism in this league, but not in the way that people think.

 

[Half Empty]

What IS the way people think, and what's the reality? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

[Dantés]

What IS the way people think, and what's the reality? Inquiring minds want to know.

Well all I know is what I read and hear in the sports coverage that I consume. But lately, a lot of mainstream coverage of the NFL, especially of the coaching hires, has been purely based on skin color.

I'm referencing mainly The Athletic here, but there has been other, similar coverage. They're just straight up calling hires good if the coach has dark skin, and are being openly skeptical if the coach has light skin.

For example, the first 15 min of a recent podcast put out by The Athletic expressed all kinds of disappointment that the Lions hired Campbell and not Bieniemy, because Campbell is white and the host feels that Bieniemy is a better candidate. Bieniemy may be a better candidate! But the Lions interviewed both guys and preferred Campbell. Now either the Lions are a bunch of anti-black racists, or they had other reasons. Implying that the assumption has to be the former (without evidence) is gross.

Or another example-- I have heard a few times that one of the big problems holding back new, fresh coaches in this league is the recycling of old coordinators. So meaning an OC or DC who gets a head coach gig, it doesn't work out, and then they cycle back into a coordinator role. It's argued that that's bad, because it blocks young, talented position coaches from getting those coordinator jobs.

I think that makes some sense! If the Packers were hiring a DC, I would probably want a young, promising guy (the one I am really interested in is Chris Hewitt in Baltimore) rather than a Gus Bradley, or a Dan Quinn. But now here's the catch: some of the same people making that argument recently applauded LA hiring Raheem Morris as their DC. Well Raheem Morris is the definition of that "recycled coach" that five minutes ago was supposed to be a problem.

Don't get me wrong-- I'm all for LA hiring Morris. He's more than qualified.

But the standard by which these media types claim to judge hires and the actual standard they are using are two different things. It boils down to minority hires = good, and white hires = skepticism.

They're openly judging human beings based on the color of their skin, and that is the definition of ethnic prejudice. And the easiest way to prove that is to make some of the same statements that are openly discussed in NFL coverage, but in reverse. Had the Lions hired Bieniemy, and someone said "it's disappointing that they didn't give a shot to a more deserving white coach," that analyst/reporter would be fired and black ball, immediately for saying something so obviously infused with ethnic bias.

 

[buggybill2003]

More and more I hear people who cover the NFL assessing hires based solely on skin color. It’s so disgusting.

There is fairly open racism in this league, but not in the way that people think.

I think that was MY point when I commented on a thread the other day. There is no place for racial bias in todays world. It should be best man for the job, regardless of race or colour.

 

[Dantés]

I think that was MY point when I commented on a thread the other day. There is no place for racial bias in todays world. It should be best man for the job, regardless of race or colour.

I 100% agree.

I understand why people would look at the ethnic breakdown of players and then the ethnic breakdown of head coaches and feel that something is amiss. And I'm not claiming to have all the answers. But I do know that openly judging people/hires based on their skin color is not the answer.

 

[buggybill2003]

I 100% agree.

I understand why people would look at the ethnic breakdown of players and then the ethnic breakdown of head coaches and feel that something is amiss. And I'm not claiming to have all the answers. But I do know that openly judging people/hires based on their skin color is not the answer.

Sadly people can be affected by their upbringing without realising it. Let`s hope one day it`ll change for the better. My late wife had racist feelings without realising it because of her fathers innocent enough comments, and yet she was one of the nicest people I ever knew.

 

[Poppa San]

It should be best man for the job

"So you immediately remove half the country's population from consideration based on your misogyny."
I hope this is not what the culture fights its battles on for the next few decades. There are more important things to worry about.

 

[Dantés]

Sadly people can be affected by their upbringing without realising it. Let`s hope one day it`ll change for the better. My late wife had racist feelings without realising it because of her fathers innocent enough comments, and yet she was one of the nicest people I ever knew.

And that may exist in NFL front offices and it may be negatively affecting coaching hires. I could not say. But I think assuming that it must exist and judging hires based on that assumption, which is what a lot of American NFL media coverage is doing right now, is immoral.

 

[buggybill2003]

"So you immediately remove half the country's population from consideration based on your misogyny."
I hope this is not what the culture fights its battles on for the next few decades. There are more important things to worry about.

Don`t quite understand your point her, but the best man or woman should get the job.

 

[Poppa San]

Don`t quite understand your point her, but the best man or woman should get the job.

I've no problem with your comments. Just saw a low hanging fruit I could grab to yank your chain with. All is good on my end.
Going stir crazy from quarantine. I've started dismantling light fixtures to clean the inside of the glass. And vacuuming inside the motors of the ceiling fans