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Brian Gutekunst new Packers GM
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 758160"><p>Right. But the way you backload the cap is by giving the player cash up front in a signing bonus. That implies more salary at the back end. Without the former you don't get to do the latter. It's all of a piece.</p><p></p><p>Let's say the Packers and Rodgers agree to wipe out the last two years of Rodgers current deal and replace it with a 5 year deal going out to age 39 at the previously suggested $145 million total. One attractive aspect of this approach is there's no signing bonus cap hangover left from the last deal that would have to be worked around.</p><p></p><p>So lets cut him and sign Alex Smith for a lot less. LOL But I digress for some cheap humor.</p><p></p><p>Anyway, you could hit him with a $58 million dollar signing bonus which is the only guaranteed money and a $1 million salary in 2018 and 2019.</p><p></p><p>Rodgers gets a big fat check up front which would certainly make him happy, the cap hit in the first two years is $12.6 million vs. the current $21 million, so that buys you an $8.4 million per year free agent for two years.</p><p></p><p>After than you start to run into problems. To get to $145 million, you're spreading $120 million cap hit, or $40 million per year, over the last 3 years. The dead cap in year 3 is $37.8 million and then $25.2 million in year 4 from the signing bonus leaving zero protection against decline. "Decline" is not just from age. It could be from accumulated injuries that affect performance but does not prevent playing. In the current state of affairs, to take one example, that's the Bulaga question coming off his 3rd. IR injury, ACL, Hip, ACL, and other miscellaneous bumps, bruises and sprains.</p><p></p><p>The problem is further compounded by Rodgers age. Unlike a 30 year old player, you cannot get to the 3rd. or 4th. year, restructure again, and kick the can further down the road. This kind of deal going out to age 39 is as far as you can expect to go. It's terminal.</p><p></p><p>In the mean time, what about that $8.4 million free agent you signed back in 2018? If that was a 4 year deal because you wanted to add some impact, and you back loaded the cap on that one too, there's cap spillover into the third and fourth years where the Rodgers cap his starting to build.</p><p></p><p>We can talk about deferring cap and we can talk ab0ut singing a name free agent or two until we're blue in the face, but that's not going to fix a mediocre roster.</p><p></p><p>The key to winning in this league, once you have your franchise QB, is to get a critical mass of players who perform above their contracts, and the best way to do that is from good players under cheap rookie contracts drafted in a narrow 4 year window where they're all cheap simultaneously. If you get that, then you'll have cap to fill in with free agents. That's how Seattle got to two Super Bowls...5 Pro Bowlers all on cheap deals, and then 4 after that, and then big contracts doled out to them, and then a gradual slide as the cap flexibility became very limited.</p><p></p><p>If you don't draft well, and your name is not Hoodie in the land of magical wheeling and dealing, you're spinning your wheels even if the spinning is at a high level of early playoff exits. Even Hoodie is nearing the end of the road as he's had to cut too close to the bone on defense and his QB is 40 years old. No wonder there's strains showing in NFL's Nirvanaville.</p><p></p><p>Everybody who touts draft and develop likes to talk about bringing guys in who learn and grow within the Packer (or Steeler or whoever) process. That's nice, but what they don't want to say out loud is they're cheap players for 4 years.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 758160"] Right. But the way you backload the cap is by giving the player cash up front in a signing bonus. That implies more salary at the back end. Without the former you don't get to do the latter. It's all of a piece. Let's say the Packers and Rodgers agree to wipe out the last two years of Rodgers current deal and replace it with a 5 year deal going out to age 39 at the previously suggested $145 million total. One attractive aspect of this approach is there's no signing bonus cap hangover left from the last deal that would have to be worked around. So lets cut him and sign Alex Smith for a lot less. LOL But I digress for some cheap humor. Anyway, you could hit him with a $58 million dollar signing bonus which is the only guaranteed money and a $1 million salary in 2018 and 2019. Rodgers gets a big fat check up front which would certainly make him happy, the cap hit in the first two years is $12.6 million vs. the current $21 million, so that buys you an $8.4 million per year free agent for two years. After than you start to run into problems. To get to $145 million, you're spreading $120 million cap hit, or $40 million per year, over the last 3 years. The dead cap in year 3 is $37.8 million and then $25.2 million in year 4 from the signing bonus leaving zero protection against decline. "Decline" is not just from age. It could be from accumulated injuries that affect performance but does not prevent playing. In the current state of affairs, to take one example, that's the Bulaga question coming off his 3rd. IR injury, ACL, Hip, ACL, and other miscellaneous bumps, bruises and sprains. The problem is further compounded by Rodgers age. Unlike a 30 year old player, you cannot get to the 3rd. or 4th. year, restructure again, and kick the can further down the road. This kind of deal going out to age 39 is as far as you can expect to go. It's terminal. In the mean time, what about that $8.4 million free agent you signed back in 2018? If that was a 4 year deal because you wanted to add some impact, and you back loaded the cap on that one too, there's cap spillover into the third and fourth years where the Rodgers cap his starting to build. We can talk about deferring cap and we can talk ab0ut singing a name free agent or two until we're blue in the face, but that's not going to fix a mediocre roster. The key to winning in this league, once you have your franchise QB, is to get a critical mass of players who perform above their contracts, and the best way to do that is from good players under cheap rookie contracts drafted in a narrow 4 year window where they're all cheap simultaneously. If you get that, then you'll have cap to fill in with free agents. That's how Seattle got to two Super Bowls...5 Pro Bowlers all on cheap deals, and then 4 after that, and then big contracts doled out to them, and then a gradual slide as the cap flexibility became very limited. If you don't draft well, and your name is not Hoodie in the land of magical wheeling and dealing, you're spinning your wheels even if the spinning is at a high level of early playoff exits. Even Hoodie is nearing the end of the road as he's had to cut too close to the bone on defense and his QB is 40 years old. No wonder there's strains showing in NFL's Nirvanaville. Everybody who touts draft and develop likes to talk about bringing guys in who learn and grow within the Packer (or Steeler or whoever) process. That's nice, but what they don't want to say out loud is they're cheap players for 4 years. [/QUOTE]
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