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Breaking Down the NFC North, 2024
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<blockquote data-quote="Thirteen Below" data-source="post: 1034901" data-attributes="member: 18006"><p>Yeah, there's no doubt the Bears are set up better to make a move than they have been in decades, and if I were a Chicago fan, I'm sure I'd be excited as hell right now too. But I'd be a lot more cautious with the bold predictions, because the best predictor of future outcome is past performance. And the Bears have been a very poor team for most of the last 30+ years.</p><p></p><p>They've had some good rosters, some good (or at least decent) W-L records, but they can't <em>build </em>anything. In 30 years, they've only had back-to-back winning seasons once, and only 8 winning seasons total. 8 out of 30. They've proven to be completely incapable of drafting and developing talent - on the field, on they sideline, and in the front office.</p><p></p><p>Now some of the Bears fans are insisting that this time, it's different. And they may be right, but I don't see any reason at all to expect it. They have a talented roster now, that's true, but they've been there many times since the mid-90s, and they've never been able to keep it together long enough to build on it.</p><p></p><p>Caleb tells us that they finally have a top-notch front office, with a great GM, but if that's true I sure don't know where they're hiding these people. Because the guys I see running the team right now look like clowns to me. He insists that this front office has been "patiently, methodically building a roster with premium picks", but when you are in desperate need of talent and you only have 4 draft picks to work with, you don't **** one away on a punter, for god's sake. There's nothing "methodical" about that; that's just crazy. They climbed to wild-card status 4 seasons ago, and in the 3 years since then, that team's been wiped out instead of added to, and they've had a combined record of .471. And they waste a 4th round pick on a punter.</p><p></p><p>They also appear to have seriously mismanaged the one asset that could have given them a major boost in their... well... whatever the hell it is they're trying to do - Justin Fields. At a time when they badly needed both depth and Day Two draft picks, they let Fields get away for a 6th-round pick next year (which will probably end up being a 4th). Going into the combine, Poles had a terrific bargaining chip in Fields, and the way to leverage that was to at the very least stay coy about what his plans were for Fields while taking the temperature of the other teams' interest in him. By confirming he was going to trade him, he removed the uncertainty, and this reduced any sense of urgency on the parts of the other GMs.</p><p></p><p>And then when he did finally deal him - after waiting too long, and turning down offers from apparently at least 2 teams - he admittedly traded Fields to Pittsburgh as a favor to the man, instead of getting more draft capital from a different team (probably Eagles, from what most people say).</p><p></p><p>That's just bad asset management, by a team that can not afford to manage its assets poorly. A Day 3 pick, a full year later, for a starting quarterback? They'd actually have been much better off trading him for a punter and using that draft pick this year for a linebacker or DL.</p><p></p><p>And can you imagine the heat Poles is going to feel in 24 if Fields actually wins the starting job in Pittsburgh and plays well? Especially if Williams struggles?</p><p></p><p>Some might say that Chicago is in a very good position right now, but many others might say just the opposite. They desperately need Williams to work out Year One. Eberflaus is a mediocre coach with no apparent flair for offensive creativity, who kept his job this year largely because the locker room appears to believe in him and support him. But if he is not able to turn the team around in his third year, the Bears will probably have to fire him, and it's the same song the Bears have been singing for years - draft a premium QB early, he gets off to poor start, team falls short of expectations.</p><p></p><p>Head coach fired, young quarterback struggles to adjust to whole new coach and whole new system in Year 2.</p><p></p><p>The young quarterback that was supposed to be the GM's crowning achievement is still unproven after 2 full years in the league, GM is fired.</p><p></p><p>New GM may give 2nd year coach and 3rd year QB another year, maybe not both.</p><p></p><p>Within 3-4 years, new coach is fired, new quarterback is drafted, lather, rinse and repeat.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Thirteen Below, post: 1034901, member: 18006"] Yeah, there's no doubt the Bears are set up better to make a move than they have been in decades, and if I were a Chicago fan, I'm sure I'd be excited as hell right now too. But I'd be a lot more cautious with the bold predictions, because the best predictor of future outcome is past performance. And the Bears have been a very poor team for most of the last 30+ years. They've had some good rosters, some good (or at least decent) W-L records, but they can't [I]build [/I]anything. In 30 years, they've only had back-to-back winning seasons once, and only 8 winning seasons total. 8 out of 30. They've proven to be completely incapable of drafting and developing talent - on the field, on they sideline, and in the front office. Now some of the Bears fans are insisting that this time, it's different. And they may be right, but I don't see any reason at all to expect it. They have a talented roster now, that's true, but they've been there many times since the mid-90s, and they've never been able to keep it together long enough to build on it. Caleb tells us that they finally have a top-notch front office, with a great GM, but if that's true I sure don't know where they're hiding these people. Because the guys I see running the team right now look like clowns to me. He insists that this front office has been "patiently, methodically building a roster with premium picks", but when you are in desperate need of talent and you only have 4 draft picks to work with, you don't **** one away on a punter, for god's sake. There's nothing "methodical" about that; that's just crazy. They climbed to wild-card status 4 seasons ago, and in the 3 years since then, that team's been wiped out instead of added to, and they've had a combined record of .471. And they waste a 4th round pick on a punter. They also appear to have seriously mismanaged the one asset that could have given them a major boost in their... well... whatever the hell it is they're trying to do - Justin Fields. At a time when they badly needed both depth and Day Two draft picks, they let Fields get away for a 6th-round pick next year (which will probably end up being a 4th). Going into the combine, Poles had a terrific bargaining chip in Fields, and the way to leverage that was to at the very least stay coy about what his plans were for Fields while taking the temperature of the other teams' interest in him. By confirming he was going to trade him, he removed the uncertainty, and this reduced any sense of urgency on the parts of the other GMs. And then when he did finally deal him - after waiting too long, and turning down offers from apparently at least 2 teams - he admittedly traded Fields to Pittsburgh as a favor to the man, instead of getting more draft capital from a different team (probably Eagles, from what most people say). That's just bad asset management, by a team that can not afford to manage its assets poorly. A Day 3 pick, a full year later, for a starting quarterback? They'd actually have been much better off trading him for a punter and using that draft pick this year for a linebacker or DL. And can you imagine the heat Poles is going to feel in 24 if Fields actually wins the starting job in Pittsburgh and plays well? Especially if Williams struggles? Some might say that Chicago is in a very good position right now, but many others might say just the opposite. They desperately need Williams to work out Year One. Eberflaus is a mediocre coach with no apparent flair for offensive creativity, who kept his job this year largely because the locker room appears to believe in him and support him. But if he is not able to turn the team around in his third year, the Bears will probably have to fire him, and it's the same song the Bears have been singing for years - draft a premium QB early, he gets off to poor start, team falls short of expectations. Head coach fired, young quarterback struggles to adjust to whole new coach and whole new system in Year 2. The young quarterback that was supposed to be the GM's crowning achievement is still unproven after 2 full years in the league, GM is fired. New GM may give 2nd year coach and 3rd year QB another year, maybe not both. Within 3-4 years, new coach is fired, new quarterback is drafted, lather, rinse and repeat. [/QUOTE]
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