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Anders Carlson
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<blockquote data-quote="mradtke66" data-source="post: 1037989" data-attributes="member: 4199"><p>I'd have to see data to prove it your idea. The dataset, which again, is old but the best I can find, shows an expected downward trend (with some really funny hiccups. 33 yards: 94%. 34 yards: 86%. 35 yards: 90%).</p><p></p><p>Similarly, the numbers don't appear to have significantly changed. Using the same data set I provided and some rudimentary Excel, all kicks under 45 yards had a success rate of 90.1%. 40 yards and in were at 92.5%. And with all that success, just 40 yarders have a 85.2% success rate. 45 yarders are down 78.8%. <strong>In other words, those relatively easy 18-35 yard kicks are doing a lot of heavy lifting to bring up the average.</strong></p><p></p><p>In aggregate, your feeling is close, but only in aggregate.</p><p></p><p>39 yards and closer, he was perfect, exceeding the NFL average.</p><p></p><p>40-49 yards, he was 50%. NFL average is 77%. 2 missed kicks off of average.</p><p></p><p>50-62 yards, he was 60%, NFL average is 63%. I'd call that a wash between lower sample size. (I capped it at 62 as the rates plummet after that and consider including them disingenuous. Especially since I don't think he attempted anything much over 50 yards? If we relax this to all 50+ kicks, the NFL average drops and he looks better by comparison)</p><p></p><p>To be clear: I'm not defending Carson, I'm picking on your argument which seems to be built more on intuition rather than data. I'm not invested in him beyond letting him try to work through his issues. I do and don't think kickers are easily replaced and my only worry if for him to be his brother and figure it all out the year after we cut him.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mradtke66, post: 1037989, member: 4199"] I'd have to see data to prove it your idea. The dataset, which again, is old but the best I can find, shows an expected downward trend (with some really funny hiccups. 33 yards: 94%. 34 yards: 86%. 35 yards: 90%). Similarly, the numbers don't appear to have significantly changed. Using the same data set I provided and some rudimentary Excel, all kicks under 45 yards had a success rate of 90.1%. 40 yards and in were at 92.5%. And with all that success, just 40 yarders have a 85.2% success rate. 45 yarders are down 78.8%. [B]In other words, those relatively easy 18-35 yard kicks are doing a lot of heavy lifting to bring up the average.[/B] In aggregate, your feeling is close, but only in aggregate. 39 yards and closer, he was perfect, exceeding the NFL average. 40-49 yards, he was 50%. NFL average is 77%. 2 missed kicks off of average. 50-62 yards, he was 60%, NFL average is 63%. I'd call that a wash between lower sample size. (I capped it at 62 as the rates plummet after that and consider including them disingenuous. Especially since I don't think he attempted anything much over 50 yards? If we relax this to all 50+ kicks, the NFL average drops and he looks better by comparison) To be clear: I'm not defending Carson, I'm picking on your argument which seems to be built more on intuition rather than data. I'm not invested in him beyond letting him try to work through his issues. I do and don't think kickers are easily replaced and my only worry if for him to be his brother and figure it all out the year after we cut him. [/QUOTE]
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