TOPackerFan
Cheesehead
I know the conventional wisdom is that he's some sort of personnel/draft genius, but this doesn't look so good.
From the jsonline:
"Green Bay - The caveat always reads that it takes at least three seasons to evaluate a draft class in the National Football League.
If that's the case, then it would be time to evaluate the 2004 draft class, the final year in which Mike Sherman was in charge.
But since there are only two players left from that six-player class, there's really not enough left to evaluate.
Defensive tackle Corey Williams and center Scott Wells are both starters. On those two, Sherman hit, and he did so in the sixth and seventh rounds.
But on first-round pick Ahmad Carroll and third-round picks Joey Thomas, Donnell Washington and B.J. Sander, the Packers seriously flopped.
So it's easy to call that draft a serious failure.
But since there's so little to evaluate - and there's no sense in beating a dead horse, anyway, because Sherman has been flogged more than enough for that class - it's time to move the schedule up a little bit.
Sherman had more critics than we can count as a draft man. The question is whether the man who replaced him is doing better.
Ted Thompson took control of the Packer football operations in January of 2005 and handled the draft three months later.
And because the 2004 class doesn't have enough players left around to evaluate, let's take a little skip ahead and evaluate the 2005 class.
Thompson is a man who believes in building a team through the draft. He's not big on high-priced free agents. He'll make trades, but nobody makes blockbuster trades in the NFL anymore.
So the draft is where Thompson figures to do his biggest work.
And how does it look like he did in 2005?
Sherman's philosophy seemed to be to trade up and seek quality over quantity. Thompson's philosophy seems to be the opposite. He's spent two drafts trading down to get more and more picks.
In 2005, he ended up making 11 picks.
In order, they were: quarterback Aaron Rodgers (first round); safety Nick Collins (second round); wide receiver Terrence Murphy (second round); safety Marviel Underwood (fourth round); linebacker Brady Poppinga (fourth round); guard Junius Coston (fifth round); cornerback Mike Hawkins (fifth round); defensive end Mike Montgomery (sixth round); wide receiver Craig Bragg (sixth round); linebacker Kurt Campbell (seventh round); and guard Will Whitticker (seventh round).
Because it's early, the grading scale will not be complicated. The grade on each player will be either "hit" or "miss."
So here goes:
Rodgers: Hasn't played enough and then broke his foot this past season. He's a good kid and might pan out in the future. But this isn't elementary school any more, and in the NFL first-round picks need to be contributors by the end of Year 2. It might be harsh now, and Rodgers could end up making it a great pick in years to come. He was No. 24, not a top 5 pick. But for now? Miss.
Collins: Pretty average for the first 28 games of his career. His last four were pretty darn good. That's not a lot to go on, but for now? Hit.
Murphy: Looked like a good pick. Then suffered a career-threatening neck injury and the Packers uncovered a pre-existing condition that caused them to fail him on his physical. No one else picked him up. Tests for narrowing of the spinal canal should now be part of every team's pre-draft medical examination. Miss.
Underwood: Might have taken the starting position away from Marquand Manuel at some point had he not suffered a season-ending injury in pre-season. Still might next season. It's iffy, but for a fourth-rounder . . . hit.
Poppinga: Took a while last year to get his first start in December and then promptly tore his ACL. Then he came back this year and started all season long. Clearly a hit.
Coston: Stayed on the roster for two years. Contributed next to nothing. Miss.
Hawkins: The possessor of fantastic tools, Hawkins lacked the toughness to stick. Miss.
Montgomery: Until a knee injury late in 2006 he had become a part of the defensive end rotation. Should remain so in 2007. Hit.
Bragg: Never could stick on a team desperate for receivers and return help. That's a clear miss.
Campbell: Two years on injured reserve. Might not have made it anyway. Miss.
Whitticker: Started as a rookie, cut by the end of his second camp. That's probably more of a statement of how bad the Packers really were in 2005. Miss.
Adding it up, there are seven misses and four hits. Sure, it's harsh to blame a GM for misses on sixth- and seventh-round picks.
But on this crude scale, Thompson missed on five of his final six picks.
Things could still change, but for now the early returns on the 2005 draft class are not what the Packers needed."
All this really says to me is that it's hard to get even good players at the end of each round.
From the jsonline:
"Green Bay - The caveat always reads that it takes at least three seasons to evaluate a draft class in the National Football League.
If that's the case, then it would be time to evaluate the 2004 draft class, the final year in which Mike Sherman was in charge.
But since there are only two players left from that six-player class, there's really not enough left to evaluate.
Defensive tackle Corey Williams and center Scott Wells are both starters. On those two, Sherman hit, and he did so in the sixth and seventh rounds.
But on first-round pick Ahmad Carroll and third-round picks Joey Thomas, Donnell Washington and B.J. Sander, the Packers seriously flopped.
So it's easy to call that draft a serious failure.
But since there's so little to evaluate - and there's no sense in beating a dead horse, anyway, because Sherman has been flogged more than enough for that class - it's time to move the schedule up a little bit.
Sherman had more critics than we can count as a draft man. The question is whether the man who replaced him is doing better.
Ted Thompson took control of the Packer football operations in January of 2005 and handled the draft three months later.
And because the 2004 class doesn't have enough players left around to evaluate, let's take a little skip ahead and evaluate the 2005 class.
Thompson is a man who believes in building a team through the draft. He's not big on high-priced free agents. He'll make trades, but nobody makes blockbuster trades in the NFL anymore.
So the draft is where Thompson figures to do his biggest work.
And how does it look like he did in 2005?
Sherman's philosophy seemed to be to trade up and seek quality over quantity. Thompson's philosophy seems to be the opposite. He's spent two drafts trading down to get more and more picks.
In 2005, he ended up making 11 picks.
In order, they were: quarterback Aaron Rodgers (first round); safety Nick Collins (second round); wide receiver Terrence Murphy (second round); safety Marviel Underwood (fourth round); linebacker Brady Poppinga (fourth round); guard Junius Coston (fifth round); cornerback Mike Hawkins (fifth round); defensive end Mike Montgomery (sixth round); wide receiver Craig Bragg (sixth round); linebacker Kurt Campbell (seventh round); and guard Will Whitticker (seventh round).
Because it's early, the grading scale will not be complicated. The grade on each player will be either "hit" or "miss."
So here goes:
Rodgers: Hasn't played enough and then broke his foot this past season. He's a good kid and might pan out in the future. But this isn't elementary school any more, and in the NFL first-round picks need to be contributors by the end of Year 2. It might be harsh now, and Rodgers could end up making it a great pick in years to come. He was No. 24, not a top 5 pick. But for now? Miss.
Collins: Pretty average for the first 28 games of his career. His last four were pretty darn good. That's not a lot to go on, but for now? Hit.
Murphy: Looked like a good pick. Then suffered a career-threatening neck injury and the Packers uncovered a pre-existing condition that caused them to fail him on his physical. No one else picked him up. Tests for narrowing of the spinal canal should now be part of every team's pre-draft medical examination. Miss.
Underwood: Might have taken the starting position away from Marquand Manuel at some point had he not suffered a season-ending injury in pre-season. Still might next season. It's iffy, but for a fourth-rounder . . . hit.
Poppinga: Took a while last year to get his first start in December and then promptly tore his ACL. Then he came back this year and started all season long. Clearly a hit.
Coston: Stayed on the roster for two years. Contributed next to nothing. Miss.
Hawkins: The possessor of fantastic tools, Hawkins lacked the toughness to stick. Miss.
Montgomery: Until a knee injury late in 2006 he had become a part of the defensive end rotation. Should remain so in 2007. Hit.
Bragg: Never could stick on a team desperate for receivers and return help. That's a clear miss.
Campbell: Two years on injured reserve. Might not have made it anyway. Miss.
Whitticker: Started as a rookie, cut by the end of his second camp. That's probably more of a statement of how bad the Packers really were in 2005. Miss.
Adding it up, there are seven misses and four hits. Sure, it's harsh to blame a GM for misses on sixth- and seventh-round picks.
But on this crude scale, Thompson missed on five of his final six picks.
Things could still change, but for now the early returns on the 2005 draft class are not what the Packers needed."
All this really says to me is that it's hard to get even good players at the end of each round.