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A Thought on QB Development
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 897457" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>So salty... my goodness.</p><p></p><p>1-- I don't think I've "figured it out" as though QB drafting is now simple and easy. I said in the OP that this isn't even an original observation. I'm just pointing out a recent trend. Why that upsets you so much, I don't quite understand. </p><p></p><p>2-- I'm sure that every player that gets drafted every year, and a lot more that go undrafted, have <em>something </em>that teams feel they can try and develop. What that adds to <em>this </em>discussion, I don't know (I take that back; I do know-- the answer is nothing). </p><p></p><p>3-- The point is very simple: in recent seasons, QB prospects with rare traits (e.g. arm talent, mobility, and/or overall athleticism) have generally gone behind QB prospects with lesser traits who are more pro ready. The trend has been that the guys with rare traits who go later (e.g. Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Herbert) are outperforming the higher floor prospects that get taken before them (e.g. Goff, Mayfield, Burrow, Trubisky). </p><p></p><p>The theory is also very simple: <em>maybe </em>in an era where any QB better than average is going to eat a huge portion of your cap on a second contract, the most efficient avenue for sustained success is to favor development of the guys with traits, and not the high floor guys, <em>especially </em>if you have the personnel to effectively develop QB's. Because even when the high floor guys "hit," the value they offer once they get paid is minimal. Look at the buyer's remorse going on right now in LA with the Rams. </p><p></p><p>And then you think about guys going back a bit further who <em>did </em>go #1 overall, or who were the 1st QB in their draft classes and were the right choice, and high ceiling traits are in evidence: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford.</p><p></p><p>Traits guys do not always work out-- of course not. There are Blake Bortles and Jake Lockers in the mix as well. But you have to go back to 2007 to find the last time a high floor/low ceiling QB prospect was the first guy off the board and it actually worked out.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 897457, member: 12283"] So salty... my goodness. 1-- I don't think I've "figured it out" as though QB drafting is now simple and easy. I said in the OP that this isn't even an original observation. I'm just pointing out a recent trend. Why that upsets you so much, I don't quite understand. 2-- I'm sure that every player that gets drafted every year, and a lot more that go undrafted, have [I]something [/I]that teams feel they can try and develop. What that adds to [I]this [/I]discussion, I don't know (I take that back; I do know-- the answer is nothing). 3-- The point is very simple: in recent seasons, QB prospects with rare traits (e.g. arm talent, mobility, and/or overall athleticism) have generally gone behind QB prospects with lesser traits who are more pro ready. The trend has been that the guys with rare traits who go later (e.g. Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Herbert) are outperforming the higher floor prospects that get taken before them (e.g. Goff, Mayfield, Burrow, Trubisky). The theory is also very simple: [I]maybe [/I]in an era where any QB better than average is going to eat a huge portion of your cap on a second contract, the most efficient avenue for sustained success is to favor development of the guys with traits, and not the high floor guys, [I]especially [/I]if you have the personnel to effectively develop QB's. Because even when the high floor guys "hit," the value they offer once they get paid is minimal. Look at the buyer's remorse going on right now in LA with the Rams. And then you think about guys going back a bit further who [I]did [/I]go #1 overall, or who were the 1st QB in their draft classes and were the right choice, and high ceiling traits are in evidence: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford. Traits guys do not always work out-- of course not. There are Blake Bortles and Jake Lockers in the mix as well. But you have to go back to 2007 to find the last time a high floor/low ceiling QB prospect was the first guy off the board and it actually worked out. [/QUOTE]
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