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A Case for Chop Robinson
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 1030806" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>After paying Rashan Gary, drafting Lukas Van Ness, and keeping Preston Smith, spending pick #25 on an edge rusher is probably not on most Packer fans' radar. However, one of my favorite realistic draft options this season is Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson. I want to make the case for him.</p><p></p><p><strong>Need: </strong>I think the need for a player like him is great than what we might perceive. For starters, Preston Smith is 32 this season and they will be able to get out of his contract after this season if they wish to. Secondly, Enagbare tore his ACL in the play-offs and could easily miss the entire season. But thirdly, and most important to me, Robinson is a different type of rusher than they have on the roster. Just as a team might be set with vertical receivers, but lack an underneath option, so this DE group has very good/viable three down players, but no true sack artist speed rushers. Robinson is that type of defensive end and there aren't many in this class. </p><p></p><p><strong>Value: </strong>Over the last 20 years, the nerds have been arguing for the value of pressure that doesn't result in sacks. It's true that pressure is valuable (hurries, knockdowns, etc.). But sacks are still exponentially more valuable that any other form of QB pressure. Teams score on less than 25% of the drives in which a sack occurs. EPA (expected points added) on dropbacks with pressure is around -0.4; EPA on dropbacks that result in sacks is around -2.0. This is why smart teams are willing to invest in sack-getters even if they can't play on every down. Saleh's Jets drafted Will McDonald. The Eagles invested heavily in Haason Red**** and now Bryce Huff. If all of your pass rushers win by playing through the opponent, you're going to be limited in sack production because those typically aren't fast wins. Robinson has the skills to win in a hurry. </p><p></p><p><strong>Athletic Profile: </strong>When you add Robinson's reported 6.98 3 cone from his pro day to his combine numbers, you're talking about a 9.74 RAS. The indicators of explosiveness are really strong, confirming what he shows on film. His 1.53 split is 99.4% and his 10'8" broad jump is 98.5%. I tried to find the comps of DE athletes who were over 250#, ran under 4.50, and had a sub 7.0 second three cone. There aren't any. I fully believe modern prospects are out-performing past generations in part because they have learned how to train specifically for these drills. But even if you allow for that, Robinson is a <em>rare</em> athlete who has proven via testing what everyone believed they were seeing on the field-- namely elite explosion and speed. </p><p></p><p>So why would he even be there at #25? Because he is unrefined and lacks production. He only has 17.5 TFL and 9.5 sacks over the last two seasons combined. He's also probably not a 3 down player as a rookie. Those are the reasons he could potentially fall to Green Bay. But in my opinion, the issues are coachable. He's only 3 seasons out of high school and just 21 years old. There's a lot more meat on the pork chop here. And if he only ever becomes a ~60% snap guy but who accrues 10-15 sacks on an average season, he's absolutely worth the pick. In fact, it would be a homerun. </p><p></p><p>So that's my case. I think Robinson should be on their short list of guys to take at #25 with the likes of Graham Barton or Kool-Aid McKinstry.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 1030806, member: 12283"] After paying Rashan Gary, drafting Lukas Van Ness, and keeping Preston Smith, spending pick #25 on an edge rusher is probably not on most Packer fans' radar. However, one of my favorite realistic draft options this season is Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson. I want to make the case for him. [B]Need: [/B]I think the need for a player like him is great than what we might perceive. For starters, Preston Smith is 32 this season and they will be able to get out of his contract after this season if they wish to. Secondly, Enagbare tore his ACL in the play-offs and could easily miss the entire season. But thirdly, and most important to me, Robinson is a different type of rusher than they have on the roster. Just as a team might be set with vertical receivers, but lack an underneath option, so this DE group has very good/viable three down players, but no true sack artist speed rushers. Robinson is that type of defensive end and there aren't many in this class. [B]Value: [/B]Over the last 20 years, the nerds have been arguing for the value of pressure that doesn't result in sacks. It's true that pressure is valuable (hurries, knockdowns, etc.). But sacks are still exponentially more valuable that any other form of QB pressure. Teams score on less than 25% of the drives in which a sack occurs. EPA (expected points added) on dropbacks with pressure is around -0.4; EPA on dropbacks that result in sacks is around -2.0. This is why smart teams are willing to invest in sack-getters even if they can't play on every down. Saleh's Jets drafted Will McDonald. The Eagles invested heavily in Haason Red**** and now Bryce Huff. If all of your pass rushers win by playing through the opponent, you're going to be limited in sack production because those typically aren't fast wins. Robinson has the skills to win in a hurry. [B]Athletic Profile: [/B]When you add Robinson's reported 6.98 3 cone from his pro day to his combine numbers, you're talking about a 9.74 RAS. The indicators of explosiveness are really strong, confirming what he shows on film. His 1.53 split is 99.4% and his 10'8" broad jump is 98.5%. I tried to find the comps of DE athletes who were over 250#, ran under 4.50, and had a sub 7.0 second three cone. There aren't any. I fully believe modern prospects are out-performing past generations in part because they have learned how to train specifically for these drills. But even if you allow for that, Robinson is a [I]rare[/I] athlete who has proven via testing what everyone believed they were seeing on the field-- namely elite explosion and speed. So why would he even be there at #25? Because he is unrefined and lacks production. He only has 17.5 TFL and 9.5 sacks over the last two seasons combined. He's also probably not a 3 down player as a rookie. Those are the reasons he could potentially fall to Green Bay. But in my opinion, the issues are coachable. He's only 3 seasons out of high school and just 21 years old. There's a lot more meat on the pork chop here. And if he only ever becomes a ~60% snap guy but who accrues 10-15 sacks on an average season, he's absolutely worth the pick. In fact, it would be a homerun. So that's my case. I think Robinson should be on their short list of guys to take at #25 with the likes of Graham Barton or Kool-Aid McKinstry. [/QUOTE]
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