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49ers -- NFCCG (who'da thunk these 2 teams in August)
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 860608"><p><strong>It's a Team Game, NFCC Edition</strong></p><p></p><p>I have the Packers as 6.1 point dogs in this game, effectively +6 1/2.</p><p></p><p>SF -3.0 for home field</p><p>SF -2.6 for superior Red Zone performance based on blended offensive and defensive frequency and performance</p><p></p><p>The Packers Red Zone TD% is better than the 49ers offensively, and very slightly better on defense, however SF's offense gets there more often and keeps the opponent out of there more often to a signifcant degree. The ability to move the ball between the 20's and stop the opponent between the 20's, i.e., 3rd down conversions on offense and defense, is reflected in Red Zone frequency and is not accorded any separate point calculation.</p><p></p><p>SF -1.1 for 20+ yard TDs</p><p></p><p>The 49ers supriority in big strike TDs is wider than the Packers superiority in preventing them.</p><p></p><p>SF +0.9 for inferior turnover differential</p><p></p><p>SF +0.3 for 4th. down superiority on both sides of the ball.</p><p></p><p>Vegas consensus is +7 1/2 points, not inefficient enough in my estimation as to be outside the margin for error.</p><p></p><p>I think the Packers are going to need a ST score or +2 on turnovers to keep this close.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 860608"] [B]It's a Team Game, NFCC Edition[/B] I have the Packers as 6.1 point dogs in this game, effectively +6 1/2. SF -3.0 for home field SF -2.6 for superior Red Zone performance based on blended offensive and defensive frequency and performance The Packers Red Zone TD% is better than the 49ers offensively, and very slightly better on defense, however SF's offense gets there more often and keeps the opponent out of there more often to a signifcant degree. The ability to move the ball between the 20's and stop the opponent between the 20's, i.e., 3rd down conversions on offense and defense, is reflected in Red Zone frequency and is not accorded any separate point calculation. SF -1.1 for 20+ yard TDs The 49ers supriority in big strike TDs is wider than the Packers superiority in preventing them. SF +0.9 for inferior turnover differential SF +0.3 for 4th. down superiority on both sides of the ball. Vegas consensus is +7 1/2 points, not inefficient enough in my estimation as to be outside the margin for error. I think the Packers are going to need a ST score or +2 on turnovers to keep this close. [/QUOTE]
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49ers -- NFCCG (who'da thunk these 2 teams in August)
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