2026 Cap Projections and changes

[DoURant]

Good pint about the draft this year. Not having a first round pick this year, especially at the back of the round, didn't hurt much. I don't think they would have gotten a better CB if they were drafting in the mid-late 20s, as is usually the case.

And I agree that the top 10, maybe 12 guys are the best of the best, and that GMs picking here are in a sweet spot (usually for an unfortunate reason….).

Which is a reason why I dislike the term "reach" in the Draft. Teams Draft guys they feel will fill a need on the team. The McClellan/Orange decision was most likely based on us wanting a DT, who offered versatility on the line, and a decent pass rush, not just a big body in the middle, geared towards mainly stopping the run.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Which is a reason why I dislike the term "reach" in the Draft. Teams Draft guys they feel will fill a need on the team. The McClellan/Orange decision was most likely based on us wanting a DT, who offered versatility on the line, and a decent pass rush, not just a big body in the middle, geared towards mainly stopping the run.

Great example. And yeah, what is a "reach" anyway within, say outside 5-10 picks from where a guy is projected?

King/Watt is a great example. Watt was drafted at #30, King at #33. Neither one was a reach at the time.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yikes how did the Browns and Saints get so far in dead cap hell? Although the Packers at $45 mil isn't anything to write home about. Thanks for the charts OS!

Thanks. I just realized I cutoff the Vikings and Dolphins at the bottom. Here is a full list (which is about to change slightly a few days into June)

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The rest of our Division has more 2026 Active Cap Spending than Green Bay’s
$250.3Mil. These are the real time amounts they are spending <OVER> and <ABOVE> the Packers Spending. So when we speak to dead $$, MN and GB lead the division at -$45Mil in that respect or in wasted, non-producing Sunk $. Yet there is an offset. The Lions are actually in the best position in production spending. The value contracts and Rookie contracts are what really matter though.

Vikings <15.7Mil>
Bears <17.3Mil>
Lions <26.7Mil>

 

[OldSchool101]

*The 49ers, Patriots, Chargers and Seahawks are in excellent position financially in 2026, with good rosters and open Cap. The Rams are an honorable mention across 2026-27 seasons. Really the NFC West should continue to remain highly competitive for 2 straight seasons with their overall, great fiscal discipline.
The 49ers huge Cap is deceptive because they do apply -$35Mil negative in 2027. So it will be balancing Cap$ into “normal range” across 2026-27. In short SF49ers need to carry $50-$60Mil cap forward to balance themselves into a healthy $range.

The Ravens, Bills and Texans borrowed heavy against their future. They hold from -$31Mil to -$65Mil negative in 2027 Cap over their heads. Those are teams who will be forced into a lean spending period which normally = talent regression.

The Bears are mostly spent. Chicago went super heavy in FA starting 2024 and it is gradually catching up. They have around $25Mil cap across the 2026-27 seasons and keep in mind that’s factoring a tiny QB room hit. Also most teams carry a 10Mil-$15mil emergency surplus across 2 seasons worth. 50% of that limited available cap $ needs to be retained. Chicago’s Cap is completing its orbit into 2027 and entering its Cap waning phase. This 2026 season for Chicago is massively important as the financial rope tightens going forward. Chicago will no longer be able to spend their way into the Postseason with their $100Mil per year offseason FA adds.

 

[OldSchool101]

Which is a reason why I dislike the term "reach" in the Draft. Teams Draft guys they feel will fill a need on the team. The McClellan/Orange decision was most likely based on us wanting a DT, who offered versatility on the line, and a decent pass rush, not just a big body in the middle, geared towards mainly stopping the run.

Yes those two prospects were really the Round 3 decision equivalent of Miller and Lee in Round 2. Miller is currently a better all around player with potential to stay on the field on 3rd Down. Lee was more a pure Run Stuffer, if you need a guy on 3rd n goal from the 2 you’d probably lean Lee.

 

[milani]

H

Thanks. I just realized I cutoff the Vikings and Dolphins at the bottom. Here is a full list (which is about to change slightly a few days into June)

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

The rest of our Division has more 2026 Active Cap Spending than Green Bay’s
$250.3Mil. These are the real time amounts they are spending <OVER> and <ABOVE> the Packers Spending. So when we speak to dead $$, MN and GB lead the division at -$45Mil in that respect or in wasted, non-producing Sunk $. Yet there is an offset. The Lions are actually in the best position in production spending. The value contracts and Rookie contracts are what really matter though.

Vikings <15.7Mil>
Bears <17.3Mil>
Lions <26.7Mil>

How bout them Jets!

 

[OldSchool101]

H

How bout them Jets!

Between the Jets and Dolphins I’m not sure which has been mismanaged more?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Thanks. I just realized I cutoff the Vikings and Dolphins at the bottom. Here is a full list (which is about to change slightly a few days into June)

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

The rest of our Division has more 2026 Active Cap Spending than Green Bay’s
$250.3Mil. These are the real time amounts they are spending <OVER> and <ABOVE> the Packers Spending. So when we speak to dead $$, MN and GB lead the division at -$45Mil in that respect or in wasted, non-producing Sunk $. Yet there is an offset. The Lions are actually in the best position in production spending. The value contracts and Rookie contracts are what really matter though.

Vikings <15.7Mil>
Bears <17.3Mil>
Lions <26.7Mil>

Yikes the Dolphins are truly in bad shape and the Queens are at the same level as GB.

Howe did the Dolphins get to the point of having $179 mil in dead cap? That's 59% of the total cap (179/301x100)

 

[Heyjoe4]

*The 49ers, Patriots, Chargers and Seahawks are in excellent position financially in 2026, with good rosters and open Cap. The Rams are an honorable mention across 2026-27 seasons. Really the NFC West should continue to remain highly competitive for 2 straight seasons with their overall, great fiscal discipline.
The 49ers huge Cap is deceptive because they do apply -$35Mil negative in 2027. So it will be balancing Cap$ into “normal range” across 2026-27. In short SF49ers need to carry $50-$60Mil cap forward to balance themselves into a healthy $range.

The Ravens, Bills and Texans borrowed heavy against their future. They hold from -$31Mil to -$65Mil negative in 2027 Cap over their heads. Those are teams who will be forced into a lean spending period which normally = talent regression.

The Bears are mostly spent. Chicago went super heavy in FA starting 2024 and it is gradually catching up. They have around $25Mil cap across the 2026-27 seasons and keep in mind that’s factoring a tiny QB room hit. Also most teams carry a 10Mil-$15mil emergency surplus across 2 seasons worth. 50% of that limited available cap $ needs to be retained. Chicago’s Cap is completing its orbit into 2027 and entering its Cap waning phase. This 2026 season for Chicago is massively important as the financial rope tightens going forward. Chicago will no longer be able to spend their way into the Postseason with their $100Mil per year offseason FA adds.

And they'll have to pay CW soon, probably next year if he keeps improving.

 

[mradtke66]

Yikes how did the Browns and Saints get so far in dead cap hell? Although the Packers at $45 mil isn't anything to write home about. Thanks for the charts OS!

Browns: the Watson contract. Had he panned out (though honestly, how?) no one would mind.

Saints: They refused to take their medicine when Brees retired. They kept signing aging vets to stay competitive. Had they accepted a year (maybe 2) to rebuild post retirement, they'd be fine. But since they were tight, they'd push money out to stay competitive and kept on the cycle. I think they finally are in a spot where in 2027 to back to normal.

 

[OldSchool101]

The Top Chart (Post June 1, 2026)
just replaced the one below (Pre June) It’s just a reminder of how the Cap gets adjusted or pushed into the 2027 season based on how contracts were setup.

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You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Browns: the Watson contract. Had he panned out (though honestly, how?) no one would mind.

Saints: They refused to take their medicine when Brees retired. They kept signing aging vets to stay competitive. Had they accepted a year (maybe 2) to rebuild post retirement, they'd be fine. But since they were tight, they'd push money out to stay competitive and kept on the cycle. I think they finally are in a spot where in 2027 to back to normal.

Thanks very much for the info mraftke66, much appreciated.

I think the Watson deal was well north of $200 mil, around $230 or $240 I think, and FULLY guaranteed, every penny no matter what became of Watson (well, we know what became of him……).

Even if Watson won multiple OPOTY awards and multiple All Pro awards, the amount he was paid would have been too much. It was a shocking deal then and it still is now. It doesn't help that he was an awful QB and a boatload of trouble.

I didn't know the Saints went down the path you mention, post-Brees. It makes me appreciate Gluten more for having Love ready well ahead of Rodgers' departure. I think the Saints have changed GMs, or should, and soon.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Top Chart (Post June 1, 2026)
just replaced the one below (Pre June) It’s just a reminder of how the Cap gets adjusted or pushed into the 2027 season based on how contracts were setup.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Same question - different team. How on earth did the Dolphins get to $179 mil dead cap? That's almost 60% of the total cap, I think. Anyone know? mradtke66?

 

[tynimiller]

Thanks very much for the info mraftke66, much appreciated.

I think the Watson deal was well north of $200 mil, around $230 or $240 I think, and FULLY guaranteed, every penny no matter what became of Watson (well, we know what became of him……).

Even if Watson won multiple OPOTY awards and multiple All Pro awards, the amount he was paid would have been too much. It was a shocking deal then and it still is now. It doesn't help that he was an awful QB and a boatload of trouble.

I didn't know the Saints went down the path you mention, post-Brees. It makes me appreciate Gluten more for having Love ready well ahead of Rodgers' departure. I think the Saints have changed GMs, or should, and soon.

I'm sorry but I think folks forget how ELITE Watson was the three years leading up to his contract...we are talking about a guy that in 2020 put up a 70.2 completion percentage / 4,823 yards passing / 33 TDs / only 7 INTs / 112.4 QBRate and chipped in 444 yards rushing with 3 TDs In 2020 he led the league in Yards, Yards/Attempt and Yards/Completion

In his 2018 / 2019 / 2020 time frame he compiled a three year run of:

12,840 yards passing
85 TDs
28 INTs
68.7 Completion Percent
1,408 Rushing Yards
15 Rushing TDs
Even had a 6 yard TD reception in there.

This in no way validates the contract the Browns signed him to, but folks Watson was legit a better passing version of Lamar, every bit the runner of Josh Allen blended into one guy.

 

[tynimiller]

Same question - different team. How on earth did the Dolphins get to $179 mil dead cap? That's almost 60% of the total cap, I think. Anyone know? mradtke66?

Main Dead Money:

Tua (released) $55.4M
Tyreek Hill (released) $28.2M
Jaylen Waddle (traded) $23.2M
Jalen Ramsey (traded) $20.8M
Minkah Fitzpatrick (traded) $12.9M
Bradley Chubb (released) $10.9M
Terron Armstead (retired) $10.7M

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Main Dead Money:

Tua (released) $55.4M
Tyreek Hill (released) $28.2M
Jaylen Waddle (traded) $23.2M
Jalen Ramsey (traded) $20.8M
Minkah Fitzpatrick (traded) $12.9M
Bradley Chubb (released) $10.9M
Terron Armstead (retired) $10.7M

Cutting a veteran starting quarterback can be expensive.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm sorry but I think folks forget how ELITE Watson was the three years leading up to his contract...we are talking about a guy that in 2020 put up a 70.2 completion percentage / 4,823 yards passing / 33 TDs / only 7 INTs / 112.4 QBRate and chipped in 444 yards rushing with 3 TDs In 2020 he led the league in Yards, Yards/Attempt and Yards/Completion

In his 2018 / 2019 / 2020 time frame he compiled a three year run of:

12,840 yards passing
85 TDs
28 INTs
68.7 Completion Percent
1,408 Rushing Yards
15 Rushing TDs
Even had a 6 yard TD reception in there.

This in no way validates the contract the Browns signed him to, but folks Watson was legit a better passing version of Lamar, every bit the runner of Josh Allen blended into one guy.

No need to be sorry, these are good points.

Yeah Watson did not deserve the contract he got, but it sure looked like he was on his way to a great career when he arrived in Cleveland, as your stats show. And then it all just fell apart. And even when he did play in Cleveland, I don't remember him being very good. No matter, bad guy, bad deal, bad team. Browns fans deserve a break.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Main Dead Money:

Tua (released) $55.4M
Tyreek Hill (released) $28.2M
Jaylen Waddle (traded) $23.2M
Jalen Ramsey (traded) $20.8M
Minkah Fitzpatrick (traded) $12.9M
Bradley Chubb (released) $10.9M
Terron Armstead (retired) $10.7M

Thanks for the gory details Ty. Yikes what a diaster! I didn't know they released Hill. If I recall it correctly, he suffered a massive knee injury either last season or the season before. I'd be surprised if he plays again. He may be retired, I don't know.

Seven guys with double-digit dead cap #s will get a team to cap hell very, very quickly.

 

[mradtke66]

Thanks for the gory details Ty. Yikes what a diaster! I didn't know they released Hill. If I recall it correctly, he suffered a massive knee injury either last season or the season before. I'd be surprised if he plays again. He may be retired, I don't know.

Seven guys with double-digit dead cap #s will get a team to cap hell very, very quickly.

Correct, but this is their reset year. All that is off the books come the 2027 season. This is how the Saints should have dealt with it.

I feel a bad for Willis. He's something of a sacrificial lamb. They got him cheap (for a starting QB) and unless he lights the world on fire, Miami is primed to get a top 5 pick, which they will presumably spend on a top QB prospect.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Hafley gets 7 wins he should be coach of the year.

 

[OldSchool101]

Hafley gets 7 wins he should be coach of the year.

This spells a total reset for Miami in 2026. This is very premeditated on the taking their lumps all at one time. Let’s face it, it often takes a year in system to get continuity (see Chicago) and Malik has a year to prove himself. Miami has +$152,000,000 Mil cap space combined 2026-2027.
We all saw what Chicago was able to do with its Offense by investing in FA’s. The Bears totally revamped their OL and in year 2 they jumped to #1 ranking unit in 2025.

Miami also just grabbed 6 Draft Picks between #12 overall and #94 overall. Including a pair of Day 1’s and a trio of RD3 picks. Plus 6 more draft picks from #130 to #200 overall. They’ll likely draft again in the top 1/2 of each Round 1-7, 2027. Including a pair of earlier RD3 picks. Then they’ll likely bring in 2-3 game changing level veterans next season.

 

[milani]

This spells a total reset for Miami in 2026. This is very premeditated on the taking their lumps all at one time. Let’s face it, it often takes a year in system to get continuity (see Chicago) and Malik has a year to prove himself. Miami has +$152,000,000 Mil cap space combined 2026-2027.
We all saw what Chicago was able to do with its Offense by investing in FA’s. The Bears totally revamped their OL and in year 2 they jumped to #1 ranking unit in 2025.

Miami also just grabbed 6 Draft Picks between #12 overall and #94 overall. Including a pair of Day 1’s and a trio of RD3 picks. Plus 6 more draft picks from #130 to #200 overall. They’ll likely draft again in the top 1/2 of each Round 1-7, 2027. Including a pair of earlier RD3 picks. Then they’ll likely bring in 2-3 game changing level veterans next season.

Just hope we are not one of their 7 wins.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Correct, but this is their reset year. All that is off the books come the 2027 season. This is how the Saints should have dealt with it.

I feel a bad for Willis. He's something of a sacrificial lamb. They got him cheap (for a starting QB) and unless he lights the world on fire, Miami is primed to get a top 5 pick, which they will presumably spend on a top QB prospect.

Willis doesn't look to have a great surrounding cast. If he can play as well as he played in GB, it should not require Miami to use a top 5 pick on a QB. Willis would have to be terrible for that to happen, given the financial commitment Miami just made for him. As you note though, he didn't et paid anywhere elite QB money.

 

[Heyjoe4]

This spells a total reset for Miami in 2026. This is very premeditated on the taking their lumps all at one time. Let’s face it, it often takes a year in system to get continuity (see Chicago) and Malik has a year to prove himself. Miami has +$152,000,000 Mil cap space combined 2026-2027.
We all saw what Chicago was able to do with its Offense by investing in FA’s. The Bears totally revamped their OL and in year 2 they jumped to #1 ranking unit in 2025.

Miami also just grabbed 6 Draft Picks between #12 overall and #94 overall. Including a pair of Day 1’s and a trio of RD3 picks. Plus 6 more draft picks from #130 to #200 overall. They’ll likely draft again in the top 1/2 of each Round 1-7, 2027. Including a pair of earlier RD3 picks. Then they’ll likely bring in 2-3 game changing level veterans next season.

Yeah I think this plays out. If Willis continues his solid play, Miami won't have to spend their top pick on a QB.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Just hope we are not one of their 7 wins.

Well said. I don't now if Miami can make it to 7 wins. New coach, new QB, and not much else unless I'm missing something.