2026 Cap Projections and changes

[OldSchool101]

Yeah I liked the Hargrave signing as well. A little risky as he is, I think, 33 y/o but Gluten pretty much knows what he's getting. $13 mil/year isn't cheap, but if Hargrave plays as well as he's played in the past, it's a good investment to a group that could use some veteran depth. And as you note, he's an iDL who can get after the QB.

Exactly. I think the $$ is very spot on for Hargraves’ services and had we kept Clark he’d cost quite about more. Hargraves is actually $10.5Mil guaranteed and only $7.7Mil against our Cap with a potential dead $2.8Mil (the difference) if we move on away from him in 2027. He will likely be restructured to keep his 2027, $15Mil cap lower.

As a comparative player, Kenny has a $12.7mil Cap hit and his pops to $22.2mil in 2027. That puts Hargrave as a comparable player but a sliver over 60% of Clark’s Cap hit. Plus Clark would have around &
$8.8Mil dead $ if he was cut or traded next season. So our $2.8mil future committed is minuscule compared to Kenny.

This nothing against Clark he’s a good player and consummate professional. All in all I think we both would agree Hargrave is a far better value when factoring production and cap.

 

[milani]

He's going to have stay healthy and play at a high level for me to get excited about anything more that $15M/yr.

Indeed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Exactly. I think the $$ is very spot on for Hargraves’ services and had we kept Clark he’d cost quite about more. Hargraves is actually $10.5Mil guaranteed and only $7.7Mil against our Cap with a potential dead $2.8Mil (the difference) if we move on away from him in 2027. He will likely be restructured to keep his 2027, $15Mil cap lower.

As a comparative player, Kenny has a $12.7mil Cap hit and his pops to $22.2mil in 2027. That puts Hargrave as a comparable player but a sliver over 60% of Clark’s Cap hit. Plus Clark would have around &
$8.8Mil dead $ if he was cut or traded next season. So our $2.8mil future committed is minuscule compared to Kenny.

This nothing against Clark he’s a good player and consummate professional. All in all I think we both would agree Hargrave is a far better value when factoring production and cap.

Clark must be getting close to the end of his career. I haven't followed him since he went to Dallas. The Parsons trade was a very good one, but showed how important Clark was to the DL.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Clark must be getting close to the end of his career. I haven't followed him since he went to Dallas. The Parsons trade was a very good one, but showed how important Clark was to the DL.

I think Kenny still has gas in his tank and is an overlooked piece in the Parsons trade. The Packers didn't just trade Clark, but absorbed over $35 million in total dead money over two years due to accelerating prorated bonuses. This made Clark a very reasonable and cheap starting DL option for the Cowboys. It also left the Packers with a big hole in their DL.

I still love the Parsons trade, but his injury and the loss of Clark, really hurt the 2025 Packer season.

 

[milani]

Clark must be getting close to the end of his career. I haven't followed him since he went to Dallas. The Parsons trade was a very good one, but showed how important Clark was to the DL.

Clark started with us in 2017 I believe. He was young. He should have a year or two left. The only major injury he suffered was that one year from a dirty Raven block.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Clark started with us in 2017 I believe. He was young. He should have a year or two left. The only major injury he suffered was that one year from a dirty Raven block.

Thanks for the update milani. That would put him right around 30. DL start to decline around that age but can still be very effective. The Packers certainly missed him late last year, but it was part of the price of getting Parsons. I still like that deal.

 

[milani]

Thanks for the update milani. That would put him right around 30. DL start to decline around that age but can still be very effective. The Packers certainly missed him late last year, but it was part of the price of getting Parsons. I still like that deal.

And he was double teamed most of his years. A DL that can be effective after 30 has a good shot at the HOF because they have to have numbers for some team to keep signing him.
Reggie was very effective after 30. So was Henry Jordan. Lombardi drafted Bob Brown and Jim Weatherwax in his last years in GB and used them at times in short yardage situations. But he kept Jordan in there because of his experience. In the 1967 playoff against the Rams he put the lick on Roman Gabriel the same way Reggie did to Drew Bledsole in SB XXXI. Henry recorded 3.5 sacks that day at nearly 33 years old. He played through 1969.

 

[OldSchool101]

And he was double teamed most of his years. A DL that can be effective after 30 has a good shot at the HOF because they have to have numbers for some team to keep signing him.
Reggie was very effective after 30.

That’s is our Payoff. Acquiring a HOF player like Reggie or Micah is generally costly. There are very few examples of a HOF player playing on a cheap contract. So while we can argue all day long they were too expensive, we won’t really know that for sure for a couple seasons at minimum. That HOF
big $ trades force us to get frugal in their wake, but that’s not always a bad thing if you can find substitute players that are similar in impact for millions less $$.

 

[OldSchool101]

We saw this balancing act by choosing
Hargrave
$11.5Mil per — $10.5Mil guar
Vs.
Kenny Clark (2026-2027)
$17.5mil per—$17.5Mil guar

Franklin
$9mil per — $3.75Mil guar
Vs
Quay
$13.5Mil per — $28.0Mil guar

St Juste
$5mil Per — $10Mil guar
Vs
Stokes
$10Mil per — $20Mil guar

Just those simple moves free up
$15.5mil less applied Cap annually +
$41.25mil less in guaranteed across only 3 players.

So suddenly a mega trade doesn’t look so crazy. I don’t think anyone can make a strong argument that Javon, Benjamin and Zaire are somehow that different than Kenny, Stokes and Quay. Yet here we also have Micah Parsons in our lockerroom. That’s a trade I do 10 out of 10 times.

 

[OldSchool101]

Stokes in 61 games
1 INT
133 Solo
0 FF
0 FR
0 Sacks
19 Passes Defensed

St Juste in 70 games
2 INT
184 Solo
4 FF
1 FR
3 Sacks
41 Passes Defensed

As far as
Clark vs Hargrave
+
Walker vs Franklin

You almost can’t find Closer Comps for a large chunk of less $$ committed.
Those are silent, brilliant moves by Brian to respond to Cap responsibility. Our financial offsets are impressive.

 

[Heyjoe4]

And he was double teamed most of his years. A DL that can be effective after 30 has a good shot at the HOF because they have to have numbers for some team to keep signing him.
Reggie was very effective after 30. So was Henry Jordan. Lombardi drafted Bob Brown and Jim Weatherwax in his last years in GB and used them at times in short yardage situations. But he kept Jordan in there because of his experience. In the 1967 playoff against the Rams he put the lick on Roman Gabriel the same way Reggie did to Drew Bledsole in SB XXXI. Henry recorded 3.5 sacks that day at nearly 33 years old. He played through 1969.

Henry Jordan! I do remember him which just shows how old I am……. I was a teenager during the years of Lombardi's Packers. What juggernauts those teams were.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We saw this balancing act by choosing
Hargrave
$11.5Mil per — $10.5Mil guar
Vs.
Kenny Clark (2026-2027)
$17.5mil per—$17.5Mil guar

Franklin
$9mil per — $3.75Mil guar
Vs
Quay
$13.5Mil per — $28.0Mil guar

St Juste
$5mil Per — $10Mil guar
Vs
Stokes
$10Mil per — $20Mil guar

Just those simple moves free up
$15.5mil less applied Cap annually +
$41.25mil less in guaranteed across only 3 players.

So suddenly a mega trade doesn’t look so crazy. I don’t think anyone can make a strong argument that Javon, Benjamin and Zaire are somehow that different than Kenny, Stokes and Quay. Yet here we also have Micah Parsons in our lockerroom. That’s a trade I do 10 out of 10 times.

The trade for Parsons was brilliant. Some may disagree, but getting a guy that good and that young for two late round 1 picks and Kenny Clark was theft. Of course Parsons makes up for some of that with a $47 mil AAV. If anyone can be said to be worth that much money, it would inlcude Parsons.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Stokes in 61 games
1 INT
133 Solo
0 FF
0 FR
0 Sacks
19 Passes Defensed

St Juste in 70 games
2 INT
184 Solo
4 FF
1 FR
3 Sacks
41 Passes Defensed

As far as
Clark vs Hargrave
+
Walker vs Franklin

You almost can’t find Closer Comps for a large chunk of less $$ committed.
Those are silent, brilliant moves by Brian to respond to Cap responsibility. Our financial offsets are impressive.

Thanks for these stats OS. St Juste had any more passes defended, on average, than Stokes. That surprised me. Passes defended, or PBUs, are an important stat. I am not a Nixon fan, but he has a lot of PBUs - top five among starting CBs I think, maybe a little better than that.

With St. Juste and Cisse and another guy drafted, there will be more competition in TC and PS. That is always a good thing. I still expect the CBs to be the weakest part of the D, but certainly improved from last year.

 

[OldSchool101]

Thanks for these stats OS. St Juste had any more passes defended, on average, than Stokes. That surprised me. Passes defended, or PBUs, are an important stat. I am not a Nixon fan, but he has a lot of PBUs - top five among starting CBs I think, maybe a little better than that.

With St. Juste and Cisse and another guy drafted, there will be more competition in TC and PS. That is always a good thing. I still expect the CBs to be the weakest part of the D, but certainly improved from last year.

Amen. We’ve got a player in Hargrave that is eerily similar to Clark. Obviously that was our weakest link last year without any quality depth. It’s probably not a stretch to say that we went ahead and moved up to get Chris McLellan for that very reason. So now we’ve got a pair of Quality interior guys. Also from research on Wyatt’s injury with similar ankle tear for breaks? It’s not an Achilles or ACL level injury either. This is fully recoverable in 4-6 months. There’s a high probability at 9 months (with normal conditions or setback) a player is at or near 100%. That puts Wyatt back ready Week 1.

The other think of note is we have secured emergency reserves through restructures and trades. GB and Detroit are neck n neck in the North Cap$ conversation in the middle of the league. Obviously we want to retain that, but if we get through Q1 of a season and see a glaring weakness? Or injury setback? we have the capacity to add another mid tier Veteran (up to Hargrave type level $
if needed). We also didn’t trade any of our draft picks from 2027. Last counted we have 6 selections between RD2-RD4. Just 1 (even a swap) gets a trade partners attention.

 

[milani]

Henry Jordan! I do remember him which just shows how old I am……. I was a teenager during the years of Lombardi's Packers. What juggernauts those teams were.

As effective as Jordan was through his last season in 1969 he suffered a heart attack in 1977 while working out at a Milwaukee gym. He was going to co-ordinate the summer festival in Milwaukee that year. Unfortunate.

 

[gopkrs]

74. I remember almost all the starters numbers.

 

[milani]

74. I remember almost all the starters numbers.

That was it!

 

[Schultz]

Stokes in 61 games
1 INT
133 Solo
0 FF
0 FR
0 Sacks
19 Passes Defensed

St Juste in 70 games
2 INT
184 Solo
4 FF
1 FR
3 Sacks
41 Passes Defensed

As far as
Clark vs Hargrave
+
Walker vs Franklin

You almost can’t find Closer Comps for a large chunk of less $$ committed.
Those are silent, brilliant moves by Brian to respond to Cap responsibility. Our financial offsets are impressive.

If memory serves Stokes was gone before the Parsons trade. I may be wrong. This I am confident in} GB was never ever going to pay Stokes the numbers you listed. I also would have made the Parsons trade 10 out of 10 times even with the draft capital it cost. Hey add in the money saved not having to pay a 1st rounder this year.

 

[milani]

If memory serves Stokes was gone before the Parsons trade. I may be wrong. This I am confident in} GB was never ever going to pay Stokes the numbers you listed. I also would have made the Parsons trade 10 out of 10 times even with the draft capital it cost. Hey add in the money saved not having to pay a 1st rounder this year.

Stokes was gone well before that.

 

[OldSchool101]

If memory serves Stokes was gone before the Parsons trade. I may be wrong. This I am confident in} GB was never ever going to pay Stokes the numbers you listed. I also would have made the Parsons trade 10 out of 10 times even with the draft capital it cost. Hey add in the money saved not having to pay a 1st rounder

Stokes was gone but once Micah traded that conversation if adding CB room help was out of the question. The conversation or debate about trade values in relation to Cap or dead Cap doesn’t end in 2025. It’s an ongoing debate. You’ll often take your
biggest licks early into a trade, but that pain is felt across several drafts and several years cap.

But thank you on the 1st Rounder Cap Saved. I did that earlier in this thread so I didn’t want to appear redundant. It ends up being over $20.5Mil across 5 years X TW0. Rookie contract on a Day 1 selection is a backwards savings because there’s a player potential loss. Yet it’s true it’s 100% factual accounting for over $40Mil saved through the 2030 season. Not chump change. I rounded down because it’s not perfect math because we only have the draft placing in our 2026 draft (#20 overall). The eventual void of not paying a pair of Day 1 draft picks alone swallows up the dead $$ from Clark sunk (minus time value of it being Spread gradual etc)

 

[milani]

Stokes was gone but once Micah traded that conversation if adding CB room help was out of the question. The conversation or debate about trade values in relation to Cap or dead Cap doesn’t end in 2025. It’s an ongoing debate. You’ll often take your
biggest licks early into a trade, but that pain is felt across several drafts and several years cap.

But thank you on the 1st Rounder Cap Saved. I did that earlier in this thread so I didn’t want to appear redundant. It ends up being over $20.5Mil across 5 years X TW0. Rookie contract on a Day 1 selection is a backwards savings because there’s a player potential loss. Yet it’s true it’s 100% factual accounting for over $40Mil saved through the 2030 season. Not chump change. I rounded down because its not perfect math because we only have the draft placing in 2025 (#20 overall).

The one former CB we could have used was Rasul Douglas. Let him escape like we did with Casey Hayward farther back.

 

[OldSchool101]

The one former CB we could have used was Rasul Douglas. Let him escape like we did with Casey Hayward farther back.

Man , I’m a huge fan of Rasul. He’s still playing at a high level as of last season.

It very well could be Rasul got stung by us unexpectedly once and he just prefers not to do that unless it’s an offer he can’t refuse. That’s my guess anyway. I’m quite sure if we offered him a 1yr $4-5Mil he’d accept.

On our side we might be thinking St Juste is a full 2yrs younger and has 50% of the miles (47 starts for St Juste vs 93 starts for Rasul). Rasul will turn 31yrs old before the regular season and it’s an age area you might gamble on the younger, lower mileage option.

I don’t pretend to know intricate details of what we’re thinking, but I do know Brian’s trend is to move on from a player in that 30 yrs old area +- a year. Btw our gamble kinda paid off because Cisse dropped right into our lap. Maybe Rasul was a plan C post draft if we got boxed out at CB.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Amen. We’ve got a player in Hargrave that is eerily similar to Clark. Obviously that was our weakest link last year without any quality depth. It’s probably not a stretch to say that we went ahead and moved up to get Chris McLellan for that very reason. So now we’ve got a pair of Quality interior guys. Also from research on Wyatt’s injury with similar ankle tear for breaks? It’s not an Achilles or ACL level injury either. This is fully recoverable in 4-6 months. There’s a high probability at 9 months (with normal conditions or setback) a player is at or near 100%. That puts Wyatt back ready Week 1.

The other think of note is we have secured emergency reserves through restructures and trades. GB and Detroit are neck n neck in the North Cap$ conversation in the middle of the league. Obviously we want to retain that, but if we get through Q1 of a season and see a glaring weakness? Or injury setback? we have the capacity to add another mid tier Veteran (up to Hargrave type level $
if needed). We also didn’t trade any of our draft picks from 2027. Last counted we have 6 selections between RD2-RD4. Just 1 (even a swap) gets a trade partners attention.

All good points OS, thanks. You put it all together as far as the iDL, which needed help this offseason. With the addition of veteran Hargrave and rookie McLellan, and of course the return of Wyatt, I'm expecting the iDL to make some noise this season, and that means not just stopping the run, but getting pressure on the QB from the inside.

The Packers haven't had this ability in a while. If this group can play to expectations, it's one more thing to make the DBs' jobs easier. I also like the addition of Dennis-Sutton at Edge. Gluten got quite a lot accomplished with only six picks this offseason. The proof will come in the games, but Gluten has certainly delivered so far.

 

[Heyjoe4]

As effective as Jordan was through his last season in 1969 he suffered a heart attack in 1977 while working out at a Milwaukee gym. He was going to co-ordinate the summer festival in Milwaukee that year. Unfortunate.

I do remember Jordan's heart attack. Truly a shame. A great player and a great man. RIP.

 

[Heyjoe4]

74. I remember almost all the starters numbers.

That's amazing. Other than Starr, I think the only other two I remember are Hornung (#5) and Jim Taylor (#31), and I wouldn't bet I'm right.

I thought Boyd Dowler wore #85, but that's a real reach. Maybe it was McGee, or neither of them…...