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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1045991" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>Yeah, pretty much this.</p><p></p><p>Of course a first round pick is not guaranteed to be a hall of famer, an all-pro, or even a high-level starter. And by the same measure a mid or late round pick is not destined to be a practice squad player or "just another guy" or a 5-teams-in-5-years journeyman or whatever. Players over- and under-perform relative to their draft position all the time.</p><p></p><p>Still the simple fact of the matter remains that pre-draft scouting and draft round projections are not meaningless. <strong>And the bottom line is that you are simply more likely to "hit" on a high-quality impact player in the early rounds than you are in the later rounds. </strong>Like I said, there's no guarantees, but at the end of the day a guy who is a consensus first-round grade is more *likely* to develop into a quality player than a guy who is a consensus mid-rounder. It's just the simple odds of it and it's not reasonable to expect Gute (or any GM) to repeatedly beat the odds in the draft in this manner.</p><p></p><p>Obviously it is always a great thing to have mid or late round player develop into important impact players for us, but this is rarely sustainable long-term. It is very, very difficult to build a consistently contending team when your high-value investments are not living up to the "price" you paid for them. </p><p></p><p>Imagine if we had similar conversations about our free agents. Say Xavier McKinney or Josh Jacobs had been total flops for us. Nobody would be saying "It's okay that we invested a ton in them and they flopped because Eric Wilson has been great and he was a practice squad signing". Obviously this isn't exactly the same as the draft but the principle remains the same: you really, really need your high-value investments to be providing a decent "return on investment" more often than not.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1045991, member: 17987"] Yeah, pretty much this. Of course a first round pick is not guaranteed to be a hall of famer, an all-pro, or even a high-level starter. And by the same measure a mid or late round pick is not destined to be a practice squad player or "just another guy" or a 5-teams-in-5-years journeyman or whatever. Players over- and under-perform relative to their draft position all the time. Still the simple fact of the matter remains that pre-draft scouting and draft round projections are not meaningless. [B]And the bottom line is that you are simply more likely to "hit" on a high-quality impact player in the early rounds than you are in the later rounds. [/B]Like I said, there's no guarantees, but at the end of the day a guy who is a consensus first-round grade is more *likely* to develop into a quality player than a guy who is a consensus mid-rounder. It's just the simple odds of it and it's not reasonable to expect Gute (or any GM) to repeatedly beat the odds in the draft in this manner. Obviously it is always a great thing to have mid or late round player develop into important impact players for us, but this is rarely sustainable long-term. It is very, very difficult to build a consistently contending team when your high-value investments are not living up to the "price" you paid for them. Imagine if we had similar conversations about our free agents. Say Xavier McKinney or Josh Jacobs had been total flops for us. Nobody would be saying "It's okay that we invested a ton in them and they flopped because Eric Wilson has been great and he was a practice squad signing". Obviously this isn't exactly the same as the draft but the principle remains the same: you really, really need your high-value investments to be providing a decent "return on investment" more often than not. [/QUOTE]
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