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2023 Salary cap riddle
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<blockquote data-quote="mradtke66" data-source="post: 996791" data-attributes="member: 4199"><p>Meh. This is honestly fine. Rodgers's hit clears after this year. While the most recent extension wasn't optimal, it's reasonable to assume a performance hit. Take your cap medicine and reload for the next year. Unlikely we're competitive enough to push deep in the playoffs in the first year under Love. In short, this is fine.</p><p></p><p>As far as Gute not dipping into FA much, I don't consider that much of an issue and not significantly impacted by our current contracts. </p><p></p><p>TT was extreme, but I think his FA is closer to the optimal play. In general, and I stress in general, FAs present too much risk relative to their cost.</p><p></p><p>First and foremost, actual good players don't make it to FA. The other team will play games with their own cap to keep those special, Tier 1-A players. If they are willing to let them go, there is usual a reason. They're old. They're an injury risk. They're a malcontent. You, the buyer, are taking on all that risk.</p><p></p><p>Okay, so you've found a player in tier 1-B that is worth the risk. Now you're bidding against the other 30 (maybe 31, if this is a can-no-longer-afford-the-franchise-tag situation) teams. Multiple teams bidding is going to drive up the price. Now you're at risk paying 1-A prices for 1-B talent.</p><p></p><p>Third, I think the most important way to build your team if through the draft. And if you're drafting well, getting 1-2 good players per draft that worth offering a large, second contract to, you're not going to have a ton of cap space. If you're ******** up the draft, or have for a few years, then you don't have good players worth extending. You're going to have an upcoming glut of cap space and be missing players. This is a time when it's worth spending big. (Smith, Smith, Turner, and Amos are the outcome.)</p><p></p><p>Another situation is when you identify a player that the rest of the league is under-valuing. Maybe they are a risk, but the cost/risk balance is enough to take the shot. Pickett falls into the first category (a former 1st rounder who turned out to just be a run plugger) and Woodson falls into the second (a malcontent, a couple years on IR, and maybe his best years are behind him and he should move to safety, etc.)</p><p></p><p>When the stars aligned, both our most recent GMs took their shots. Woodson, Picket, Smiths...but all the things need to line up right.</p><p></p><p>Where I think TT took it too far was his unwillingness for the occasional band-aid. Second and third tier FAs for low money to patch up holes/act as a backstop. Nothing wrong with spending a little money for your 4th lineman to play 30% of your snaps. A willey, 30 year old RG in case your shiny rookie RG doesn't pan out. A 3/4 bubble WR that's good in the redzone. Those patch-jobs that get you over the hump</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mradtke66, post: 996791, member: 4199"] Meh. This is honestly fine. Rodgers's hit clears after this year. While the most recent extension wasn't optimal, it's reasonable to assume a performance hit. Take your cap medicine and reload for the next year. Unlikely we're competitive enough to push deep in the playoffs in the first year under Love. In short, this is fine. As far as Gute not dipping into FA much, I don't consider that much of an issue and not significantly impacted by our current contracts. TT was extreme, but I think his FA is closer to the optimal play. In general, and I stress in general, FAs present too much risk relative to their cost. First and foremost, actual good players don't make it to FA. The other team will play games with their own cap to keep those special, Tier 1-A players. If they are willing to let them go, there is usual a reason. They're old. They're an injury risk. They're a malcontent. You, the buyer, are taking on all that risk. Okay, so you've found a player in tier 1-B that is worth the risk. Now you're bidding against the other 30 (maybe 31, if this is a can-no-longer-afford-the-franchise-tag situation) teams. Multiple teams bidding is going to drive up the price. Now you're at risk paying 1-A prices for 1-B talent. Third, I think the most important way to build your team if through the draft. And if you're drafting well, getting 1-2 good players per draft that worth offering a large, second contract to, you're not going to have a ton of cap space. If you're ******** up the draft, or have for a few years, then you don't have good players worth extending. You're going to have an upcoming glut of cap space and be missing players. This is a time when it's worth spending big. (Smith, Smith, Turner, and Amos are the outcome.) Another situation is when you identify a player that the rest of the league is under-valuing. Maybe they are a risk, but the cost/risk balance is enough to take the shot. Pickett falls into the first category (a former 1st rounder who turned out to just be a run plugger) and Woodson falls into the second (a malcontent, a couple years on IR, and maybe his best years are behind him and he should move to safety, etc.) When the stars aligned, both our most recent GMs took their shots. Woodson, Picket, Smiths...but all the things need to line up right. Where I think TT took it too far was his unwillingness for the occasional band-aid. Second and third tier FAs for low money to patch up holes/act as a backstop. Nothing wrong with spending a little money for your 4th lineman to play 30% of your snaps. A willey, 30 year old RG in case your shiny rookie RG doesn't pan out. A 3/4 bubble WR that's good in the redzone. Those patch-jobs that get you over the hump [/QUOTE]
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