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2021 cap/cba question
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 884990"><p>It is guaranteed until it isn't. It's not a matter of just 2020 revenue. It's a matter of visibility into 2021. If Covid-19 is raging come February I'd expect matters to be revisited. I could see the start of the league year, free agency and the draft deferred until there is better visibility depending on circumstances.</p><p></p><p>While the current deal might have a cap scale for 2021 from $175 mil on up based on 2020 revenues under an assumption of 2021 being back to normal, that could easily go awry.</p><p></p><p>Just cutting vets is extremely problematic and will roil the sport, not that it won't happen.</p><p></p><p>Average team cap space for 2021 with players currently under contract assuming a $176 mil cap would average $9 mil per team. Nobody has 53 players already under contract for 2021 since nobody in the 2021 free agent class is counted. The draft alone, if the rookie salary scale holds, would suck up most if not all of that $9 mil average cap.</p><p></p><p>The Packers, for example, have 39 players under contract for next season with a cap cost of $180 mil. Yoiu're looking at about $195 mil just to sign the draft class and get to a full roster and PS while signing no free agents of any kind, so you'd have to find $20 mil in cap savings from cuts. This is not particularly unique.</p><p></p><p>So, you'd have the bizarre circumstance where a bunch of star players must be cut across the league, with the league on average having little cap to sign them back except at rock bottom prices.</p><p></p><p>You're left with a picture where only about a half dozen teams have the cap space to compete for a whole mess of good players, a much larger group than in typical free agency periods:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/" target="_blank">https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/</a></p><p></p><p>Of course those teams with high cap space have to be examined to see what their free agent class looks like to see what they need to build up a roster.</p><p></p><p>Some have other considerations like making money. Jacksonville under normal circumstances appears to be around a break even team at best. They go play in London to make a buck and this year their red ink is bound to be flowing like the Mississippi. I would not expect them to spend up to the cap limit to take a shot at the prize.</p><p></p><p>Billionaires with lots of cap space may like their profit (or minimizing losses) more than winning at any cost. It's how they got to be billiaires in the first place. You could see high value free agents sitting out or getting paid well under guys sitting behind them on the bench. There will be a lot of anger, among players and football operations people with some potential transfer of power to the few teams with cap and willingness to spend it.</p><p></p><p>What the salary cap might be in 2021 is hardly worth discussing beyond the variables that go into it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 884990"] It is guaranteed until it isn't. It's not a matter of just 2020 revenue. It's a matter of visibility into 2021. If Covid-19 is raging come February I'd expect matters to be revisited. I could see the start of the league year, free agency and the draft deferred until there is better visibility depending on circumstances. While the current deal might have a cap scale for 2021 from $175 mil on up based on 2020 revenues under an assumption of 2021 being back to normal, that could easily go awry. Just cutting vets is extremely problematic and will roil the sport, not that it won't happen. Average team cap space for 2021 with players currently under contract assuming a $176 mil cap would average $9 mil per team. Nobody has 53 players already under contract for 2021 since nobody in the 2021 free agent class is counted. The draft alone, if the rookie salary scale holds, would suck up most if not all of that $9 mil average cap. The Packers, for example, have 39 players under contract for next season with a cap cost of $180 mil. Yoiu're looking at about $195 mil just to sign the draft class and get to a full roster and PS while signing no free agents of any kind, so you'd have to find $20 mil in cap savings from cuts. This is not particularly unique. So, you'd have the bizarre circumstance where a bunch of star players must be cut across the league, with the league on average having little cap to sign them back except at rock bottom prices. You're left with a picture where only about a half dozen teams have the cap space to compete for a whole mess of good players, a much larger group than in typical free agency periods: [URL]https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/[/URL] Of course those teams with high cap space have to be examined to see what their free agent class looks like to see what they need to build up a roster. Some have other considerations like making money. Jacksonville under normal circumstances appears to be around a break even team at best. They go play in London to make a buck and this year their red ink is bound to be flowing like the Mississippi. I would not expect them to spend up to the cap limit to take a shot at the prize. Billionaires with lots of cap space may like their profit (or minimizing losses) more than winning at any cost. It's how they got to be billiaires in the first place. You could see high value free agents sitting out or getting paid well under guys sitting behind them on the bench. There will be a lot of anger, among players and football operations people with some potential transfer of power to the few teams with cap and willingness to spend it. What the salary cap might be in 2021 is hardly worth discussing beyond the variables that go into it. [/QUOTE]
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