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The Value of Run Defense
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<blockquote data-quote="Sunshinepacker" data-source="post: 876436" data-attributes="member: 9033"><p>I like DVOA, I think it's actually the best way fans have to measure strength of defense and offense; however, it doesn't take into account differences in personnel. Rodgers threw more deep passes (over 20 yards in the air) than any QB in the NFL and Garrapolo was 31st in average depth of target but that's because the 49ers receivers were amazing after the catch. The Packers only really have one great receiver and nobody besides Adams has shown that kind of ability on the Packers; and, to be clear, Adams is great at getting open but not really close to what Deebo and Kittle do after the catch (Deebo was 8.3 yards after catch, Kittle was 7.1 and Adams was 4.7).</p><p></p><p>DVOA doesn't discriminate between what a passing offense does through the air and what a passing offense does after the catch; both are passes. The Packers don't have the personnel to do what the 49ers do after the catch. The Packers have a top-3 WR in Adams but that's really it. The 49ers have a top-3 TE and the best offensive coach in the NFL, coupled with an elite defense. I'm not trying to say the Packers can never do as well under MLF, just that I will be shocked if they approach that level in the next year or two.</p><p></p><p>Finally, the difference in passing DVOA is much greater between the Packers and 49ers than just their rank. The Packers were closer to the 18th ranked Bucs than they are to the 8th ranked 49ers. I am a little shocked to see the Packers' rushing offense DVOA was 4th in the NFL, right behind Dallas.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Sunshinepacker, post: 876436, member: 9033"] I like DVOA, I think it's actually the best way fans have to measure strength of defense and offense; however, it doesn't take into account differences in personnel. Rodgers threw more deep passes (over 20 yards in the air) than any QB in the NFL and Garrapolo was 31st in average depth of target but that's because the 49ers receivers were amazing after the catch. The Packers only really have one great receiver and nobody besides Adams has shown that kind of ability on the Packers; and, to be clear, Adams is great at getting open but not really close to what Deebo and Kittle do after the catch (Deebo was 8.3 yards after catch, Kittle was 7.1 and Adams was 4.7). DVOA doesn't discriminate between what a passing offense does through the air and what a passing offense does after the catch; both are passes. The Packers don't have the personnel to do what the 49ers do after the catch. The Packers have a top-3 WR in Adams but that's really it. The 49ers have a top-3 TE and the best offensive coach in the NFL, coupled with an elite defense. I'm not trying to say the Packers can never do as well under MLF, just that I will be shocked if they approach that level in the next year or two. Finally, the difference in passing DVOA is much greater between the Packers and 49ers than just their rank. The Packers were closer to the 18th ranked Bucs than they are to the 8th ranked 49ers. I am a little shocked to see the Packers' rushing offense DVOA was 4th in the NFL, right behind Dallas. [/QUOTE]
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