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The Value of Run Defense
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 876397" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>As for level of competition, that's part of the beauty of DVOA, which is weighted for opponent. But yes, as we all say in the NFCCG, particular opponents can really take advantage of a particular weakness. It's incumbent on Pettine to address that. </p><p></p><p>To your point, five of the last six teams to appear in the Super Bowl were poor run defenses at least by some measure. All five of them were in the top 10 in offensive DVOA: NE in 2017 was 1st; LA in 2018 was 2nd; NE in 2018 was 4th; KC was 5th; SF was 8th. </p><p></p><p>It makes sense. To be the top team from either conference, you have to be exceptional in some ways. If a team is going to have a weakness like a bottom 5 run defense, you figure they must be really good in some other ways. </p><p></p><p>But it seems that it's the other qualities that have a higher correlation with success. In 2019, 10/12 PO teams were top half in pass offensive DVOA, 11/12 PO teams were top half in rush offensive DVOA (and team twelve was ranked 17th), and 10/12 PO teams were top half in pass defense DVOA. Much stronger correlations.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 876397, member: 12283"] As for level of competition, that's part of the beauty of DVOA, which is weighted for opponent. But yes, as we all say in the NFCCG, particular opponents can really take advantage of a particular weakness. It's incumbent on Pettine to address that. To your point, five of the last six teams to appear in the Super Bowl were poor run defenses at least by some measure. All five of them were in the top 10 in offensive DVOA: NE in 2017 was 1st; LA in 2018 was 2nd; NE in 2018 was 4th; KC was 5th; SF was 8th. It makes sense. To be the top team from either conference, you have to be exceptional in some ways. If a team is going to have a weakness like a bottom 5 run defense, you figure they must be really good in some other ways. But it seems that it's the other qualities that have a higher correlation with success. In 2019, 10/12 PO teams were top half in pass offensive DVOA, 11/12 PO teams were top half in rush offensive DVOA (and team twelve was ranked 17th), and 10/12 PO teams were top half in pass defense DVOA. Much stronger correlations. [/QUOTE]
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