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Studs vs Duds: Heart Attack Edition
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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 467089" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"><span style="font-size: 12px">What's the easiest thing to do as a fan? Certainly second-guessing a call that went wrong has to be near the top of the list. The converse is what HardRightEdge is doing here: Second-guessing a call that not only worked but led to a TD. IMO it's reasonable to question the call because unlike the fake FG attempt if it failed, it would have almost certainly led to points, IMO most likely a TD. (Check the Saints percentage of TDs in the red zone this season.) The reason I don't question the call is because not only could Kuhn have called it off, but his call directed a double team to be performed against the "NT", the player most likely to blow it up. The first thing Kuhn noticed was because the Saints were double teaming both gunners - they had a return on - there were only 6 defenders in the box so the Packers had a number advantage of blockers vs. defenders.</span> </span><span style="font-size: 12px"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"> <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/special-teams-prevail-tm723o4-172033251.html" target="_blank">http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/special-teams-prevail-tm723o4-172033251.html</a></span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Even so, HardRightEdge is right in posting the risk, because of field position, was huge. If Kuhn stumbled, if the defender beat the double team, if Kuhn fumbled, if the snap hit Kuhn in the knee - or not at all, if a ref made a boneheaded call or spot, etc. (<em>Wait, that last one never could have happened</em>.) Even a casual football fan doesn't need stats or a link to understand the risk of turning the ball over inside one's 20 yard line. So even though I disagree in this instance, kudos to HardRightEdge. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">I have previously read a "never punt" argument that is absolute and I would put "never punt on 4th and 1 or less" in the same category: A prescription to get the HC fired. Several scenarios immediately come to mind in which it would be nothing short of idiotic to adhere to these strategies. Fourth and 35 from your 20 yard line. Fourth and a yard from your 25 yard line with an 8 point lead, one minute left, your opponent has no time outs and your defense has been playing great. Write an article on the theory and when it doesn't work out, sheepishly grin and cite the stats while writing your next article. But if you're the HC don't punt in either instance and get fired. IMO what should be learned from the compiled stats which advocates use to advance these "never" theories is to punt less. For example how about '<em>almost</em> never punt beyond your own 45 yard line'? IOW, be cautious of "always" or "never" theories in <em>almost</em> every endeavor. </span></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 467089, member: 4300"] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma][SIZE=3]What's the easiest thing to do as a fan? Certainly second-guessing a call that went wrong has to be near the top of the list. The converse is what HardRightEdge is doing here: Second-guessing a call that not only worked but led to a TD. IMO it's reasonable to question the call because unlike the fake FG attempt if it failed, it would have almost certainly led to points, IMO most likely a TD. (Check the Saints percentage of TDs in the red zone this season.) The reason I don't question the call is because not only could Kuhn have called it off, but his call directed a double team to be performed against the "NT", the player most likely to blow it up. The first thing Kuhn noticed was because the Saints were double teaming both gunners - they had a return on - there were only 6 defenders in the box so the Packers had a number advantage of blockers vs. defenders.[/SIZE] [/FONT][SIZE=3][FONT=Tahoma] [url]http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/special-teams-prevail-tm723o4-172033251.html[/url][/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR] [SIZE=3][COLOR=windowtext][FONT=Tahoma]Even so, HardRightEdge is right in posting the risk, because of field position, was huge. If Kuhn stumbled, if the defender beat the double team, if Kuhn fumbled, if the snap hit Kuhn in the knee - or not at all, if a ref made a boneheaded call or spot, etc. ([I]Wait, that last one never could have happened[/I].) Even a casual football fan doesn't need stats or a link to understand the risk of turning the ball over inside one's 20 yard line. So even though I disagree in this instance, kudos to HardRightEdge. [/FONT][/COLOR][/SIZE] [SIZE=3][COLOR=windowtext][FONT=Tahoma]I have previously read a "never punt" argument that is absolute and I would put "never punt on 4th and 1 or less" in the same category: A prescription to get the HC fired. Several scenarios immediately come to mind in which it would be nothing short of idiotic to adhere to these strategies. Fourth and 35 from your 20 yard line. Fourth and a yard from your 25 yard line with an 8 point lead, one minute left, your opponent has no time outs and your defense has been playing great. Write an article on the theory and when it doesn't work out, sheepishly grin and cite the stats while writing your next article. But if you're the HC don't punt in either instance and get fired. IMO what should be learned from the compiled stats which advocates use to advance these "never" theories is to punt less. For example how about '[I]almost[/I] never punt beyond your own 45 yard line'? IOW, be cautious of "always" or "never" theories in [I]almost[/I] every endeavor. [/FONT][/COLOR][/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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Studs vs Duds: Heart Attack Edition
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