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Evolution of the Run Game
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 566987"><p>Well, here are a couple of things I noted before I stopped looking at it:</p><p></p><p>First a simple example:</p><p></p><p>Expected Points (EP) is how many points a team can expect to score from a specific down and distance. He has determined, for example, that teams with a 1st. and 10 at their own 20 score on average 0.4 points on that possession. Teams with a 1st. and 10 on the opponent's 20 score on average 4.0 points in that possession. If, for example, a 60 yard pass in completed from 20 to 20, that play has earned 4.0 - 0.4 = 3.6 Expected Points Added (EPA).</p><p></p><p>He then goes on to state in the glossary that the Success Rate (SR), the subject of the first scatter chart, is calculated as the "percentage of plays with positive EPA". Why he chose this approach rather than cumulative EPA is not explained so far as I can see. It actually defies the notion of "big play" value. A team that wins incrementally more plays on mostly **** and dunk success will score higher than a team that wins incrementally fewer plays but has more big plays. </p><p></p><p>He also tried to adjust for performance when a team had a big lead or it was garbage time at the end of a half or the end of a game. Here's how he did it, with a meat cleaver:</p><p></p><p>"The baseline EP values are therefore based only on game situations when the score was within 10 points and in the first and third quarters. This eliminates situations like ‘trash time,’ and other distortions."</p><p></p><p>That means he threw out more than 1/2 of all the game data from any consideration with no more explanation than the paragraph above, and anything that happens when there is an 11+ spread doesn't count. Tell that Matt Flynn circa 2013. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/wink.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-shortname=";)" /></p><p></p><p>I stopped looking at this at that point.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 566987"] Well, here are a couple of things I noted before I stopped looking at it: First a simple example: Expected Points (EP) is how many points a team can expect to score from a specific down and distance. He has determined, for example, that teams with a 1st. and 10 at their own 20 score on average 0.4 points on that possession. Teams with a 1st. and 10 on the opponent's 20 score on average 4.0 points in that possession. If, for example, a 60 yard pass in completed from 20 to 20, that play has earned 4.0 - 0.4 = 3.6 Expected Points Added (EPA). He then goes on to state in the glossary that the Success Rate (SR), the subject of the first scatter chart, is calculated as the "percentage of plays with positive EPA". Why he chose this approach rather than cumulative EPA is not explained so far as I can see. It actually defies the notion of "big play" value. A team that wins incrementally more plays on mostly **** and dunk success will score higher than a team that wins incrementally fewer plays but has more big plays. He also tried to adjust for performance when a team had a big lead or it was garbage time at the end of a half or the end of a game. Here's how he did it, with a meat cleaver: "The baseline EP values are therefore based only on game situations when the score was within 10 points and in the first and third quarters. This eliminates situations like ‘trash time,’ and other distortions." That means he threw out more than 1/2 of all the game data from any consideration with no more explanation than the paragraph above, and anything that happens when there is an 11+ spread doesn't count. Tell that Matt Flynn circa 2013. ;) I stopped looking at this at that point. [/QUOTE]
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