First, the major UFAs ($2M or more) that we might realistically just let walk.
Tramon - $9.5M
Raji - $4M
Bush - $2.033M
Sherrod - $2.1M
That's a potential savings of about $18M from this years cap. Sherrod does have a team option for 2015 if he does end up finally having a big season.
House, Harris, Taylor, and Lattimore are others that may come off the books after the 2014 season, but at minimal savings. All will be UFA's, so House and Lattimore in particular may be playing for contracts this year. There is the potential to lose all of Tramon, House, and Bush next year, so despite keeping Shields, it wouldn't be a bad idea this year to look at a project CB in the middle rounds, especially if Hyde moves to safety. I know we like Rolle, so we'll see. Boykin will be a RFA, so barring a disastrous dropoff, he'll certainly warrant a tender next year.
Guys who definitely warrant extension consideration:
Nelson - $4.375M
Cobb - $1.021M
Bulaga - $3.829M
I'm a bit concerned about the near future cap requirements for our WR corps. As far as I can tell, Nelson and Cobb are both $8-$10M dollar players. Seems like a lot to have invested in your #1 and #2, and it would be extremely tough to let either walk. Should Boykin improve on his 2013 season, you almost have to protect him with a 2nd round RFA tender to prevent another team from signing him to an offer sheet outside of our comfort zone (similar to Hawkins with the Bengals/Browns this year).
Bulaga plays a premium position, but injuries mar his potential FA value. Of course, he can take care of that with a 16 game healthy season where he plays like an All-Pro this year. If you're not concerned about his health, trying to lock him in now to a below market deal with the appeal to him of some guaranteed money to protect him, isn't the worst idea in the world.
Potential cap casualties in 2015:
B. Jones - He'll likely get another chance in 2014, but he has a pretty unappealing 2015 cap number of $4.675M. The dead money is only $1M if he's cut then, so he'll need a good season to see that final contract year. Potential cap savings, $3.675M.
Hawk - Cap hit of $5.1M and dead money of $1.6M would be $3.5M of cap savings if he's cut in 2015. They've got enough of a comfort level with Hawk that unlike Jones, I think it would take a pretty bad year for Hawk to get the axe before the 2015 season.
Peppers - His full contract details aren't available yet (that I've seen), but he's presumably a year to year player at his age. From what I've heard, he'd result in $5M dead money if cut, but that's not official yet. Best case scenario is that he remains a Packer in 2015 by continuing to be a solid NFL playmaker.
These are the only cuts that are both plausible, and likely to be of any substantial cap savings. To anyone expecting to see Burnett, it's very unlikely, even if he follows up a bad 2013 with a bad 2014. Cap savings on a Burnett cut would be a mere $200,000. Unless he turns into a complete liability, he's going to get at least 2 more years. I don't think he will be, and hopefully he bounces back.
Tramon - $9.5M
Raji - $4M
Bush - $2.033M
Sherrod - $2.1M
That's a potential savings of about $18M from this years cap. Sherrod does have a team option for 2015 if he does end up finally having a big season.
House, Harris, Taylor, and Lattimore are others that may come off the books after the 2014 season, but at minimal savings. All will be UFA's, so House and Lattimore in particular may be playing for contracts this year. There is the potential to lose all of Tramon, House, and Bush next year, so despite keeping Shields, it wouldn't be a bad idea this year to look at a project CB in the middle rounds, especially if Hyde moves to safety. I know we like Rolle, so we'll see. Boykin will be a RFA, so barring a disastrous dropoff, he'll certainly warrant a tender next year.
Guys who definitely warrant extension consideration:
Nelson - $4.375M
Cobb - $1.021M
Bulaga - $3.829M
I'm a bit concerned about the near future cap requirements for our WR corps. As far as I can tell, Nelson and Cobb are both $8-$10M dollar players. Seems like a lot to have invested in your #1 and #2, and it would be extremely tough to let either walk. Should Boykin improve on his 2013 season, you almost have to protect him with a 2nd round RFA tender to prevent another team from signing him to an offer sheet outside of our comfort zone (similar to Hawkins with the Bengals/Browns this year).
Bulaga plays a premium position, but injuries mar his potential FA value. Of course, he can take care of that with a 16 game healthy season where he plays like an All-Pro this year. If you're not concerned about his health, trying to lock him in now to a below market deal with the appeal to him of some guaranteed money to protect him, isn't the worst idea in the world.
Potential cap casualties in 2015:
B. Jones - He'll likely get another chance in 2014, but he has a pretty unappealing 2015 cap number of $4.675M. The dead money is only $1M if he's cut then, so he'll need a good season to see that final contract year. Potential cap savings, $3.675M.
Hawk - Cap hit of $5.1M and dead money of $1.6M would be $3.5M of cap savings if he's cut in 2015. They've got enough of a comfort level with Hawk that unlike Jones, I think it would take a pretty bad year for Hawk to get the axe before the 2015 season.
Peppers - His full contract details aren't available yet (that I've seen), but he's presumably a year to year player at his age. From what I've heard, he'd result in $5M dead money if cut, but that's not official yet. Best case scenario is that he remains a Packer in 2015 by continuing to be a solid NFL playmaker.
These are the only cuts that are both plausible, and likely to be of any substantial cap savings. To anyone expecting to see Burnett, it's very unlikely, even if he follows up a bad 2013 with a bad 2014. Cap savings on a Burnett cut would be a mere $200,000. Unless he turns into a complete liability, he's going to get at least 2 more years. I don't think he will be, and hopefully he bounces back.