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Did you guys see this article on going for it on 4th down?
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<blockquote data-quote="wpr" data-source="post: 195246" data-attributes="member: 198"><p>Bobby R said it pretty well. They need a larger 4th down sample size not to use 3rd down results from the 1st quarter.</p><p></p><p>I like the line, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". It is no secret that coaches by and large are conservative in their play calling.</p><p></p><p>A team that is on their own 25 facing 3rd and 17 will go for it in any quarter. A team that is up by 14 points and on their own 10 facing 4th and 5 with 3 minutes to play should not go for it. But if they are on the opponent's 45, down by 6 and there is only 1 minute to go they will go for it.</p><p></p><p>What his equation leaves out by using 1st quarter 3rd down stats is desire. On 4th and 1 from the 50, players on both sides of the line are more willing to risk injury and sell themselves out by throwing their bodies into the play. Look at how Reggie White got those sacks toward the end of the Super Bowl to seal the victory. He cranked it up a notch and shut New England down. </p><p></p><p>If it is still the 1st quarter, players are going to play hard. They need to save something for later.</p><p></p><p>His stats are like someone looking at a stand of apple trees in WI and then trying to decide how many to orange trees he can plant in FL. after all they are all trees that bear fruit. Big difference.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="wpr, post: 195246, member: 198"] Bobby R said it pretty well. They need a larger 4th down sample size not to use 3rd down results from the 1st quarter. I like the line, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". It is no secret that coaches by and large are conservative in their play calling. A team that is on their own 25 facing 3rd and 17 will go for it in any quarter. A team that is up by 14 points and on their own 10 facing 4th and 5 with 3 minutes to play should not go for it. But if they are on the opponent's 45, down by 6 and there is only 1 minute to go they will go for it. What his equation leaves out by using 1st quarter 3rd down stats is desire. On 4th and 1 from the 50, players on both sides of the line are more willing to risk injury and sell themselves out by throwing their bodies into the play. Look at how Reggie White got those sacks toward the end of the Super Bowl to seal the victory. He cranked it up a notch and shut New England down. If it is still the 1st quarter, players are going to play hard. They need to save something for later. His stats are like someone looking at a stand of apple trees in WI and then trying to decide how many to orange trees he can plant in FL. after all they are all trees that bear fruit. Big difference. [/QUOTE]
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Did you guys see this article on going for it on 4th down?
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