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<blockquote data-quote="FrankRizzo" data-source="post: 491068" data-attributes="member: 2232"><p>By the way, Pro Football Focus grades Pickett as our 5th most Overvalued Player, and I'm sad & scared to say his play is going to decline further on his big ole' legs.</p><p><a href="https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/02/performance-based-value-green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/02/performance-based-value-green-bay-packers/</a></p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><span style="color: #008000"><strong>Overvalued</strong></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>1. Charles Woodson*, Safety</strong></span></p><p>Unlike Jones, Woodson’s position change was not an instant success. He started only seven games before breaking his collarbone and missing the next nine. In those seven games he graded positively only twice. It wasn’t that his play was hurting the Packers, it was that his contract was signed as an elite corner and he has aged into an adequate safety. With Woodson’s upcoming $9.5m cap hit in 2013, the Packers already decided to part ways with the veteran safety. He could still land with another team, but it will likely be for a cap number closer to his performance based value from 2012.</p><p>Cap Hit:<strong> $11.4m</strong></p><p>Performance Based Value:<strong> $1.4m</strong></p><p>Value Differential:<strong> -$10.0m</strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>2. Greg Jennings*, Wide Receiver</strong></span></p><p>Jennings is another whose value in 2012 was greatly hampered by injury. He made only eight starts in the regular season and played only 435 snaps. Even still, his production wasn’t up to his own standards. His numbers extrapolated to a 16 game season would have reached 72 receptions, 732 yards, and eight touchdowns. His 10.2 yards per catch was the lowest of his career by 4 yards. Jennings <a href="https://www.profootballfocus.com/about/pff-signature-stats/#YardsPerRouteRun" target="_blank">Yards Per Route Run</a> was the fourth-highest among Packer receivers, at 1.28, even though he had the second-highest target percentage (20%). Those numbers make it pretty clear why the Packers are content to let Jennings hit the open market this summer.</p><p>Cap Hit:<strong> $7.5m</strong></p><p>Performance Based Value:<strong> $1.9m</strong></p><p>Value Differential:<strong> -$5.6m</strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>3. Tramon Williams, Cornerback</strong></span></p><p>In 2012 the Packers had the second-highest cumulative PFF pass coverage grade, and the fourth-lowest passer rating against. What got lost in the success of their secondary was the lackluster play of No. 1 corner Tramon Williams. Williams signed his contract extension in the middle of the 2010 season, and after his great run in the postseason it looked like a steal. In 2011, though, he gave up the most yards in the league and he didn’t improve greatly in 2012. Over the last 10 games this season, including the playoffs, Williams compiled a total grade of <strong><span style="color: #ff0000">-9.9</span></strong>. Williams’ cap hit will only grow the next two seasons, and he’ll have to step it up in order to not make the bottom three again.</p><p>Cap Hit:<strong> $7.4m</strong></p><p>Performance Based Value:<strong> $2.3m</strong></p><p>Value Differential:<strong> -$5.1m</strong></p><p> </p><p><strong>4. Jermichael Finley, TE – </strong>Cap: $5.3m, PBV: $1.0m, Value Differential: -$4.2m</p><p><strong>5. Ryan Pickett, NT – </strong>Cap: $5.8m, PBV: $1.6m, Value Differential: -$4.2m</p><p> </p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><span style="color: #008000"><strong>Undervalued</strong></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>1. Clay Matthews, Outside Linebacker</strong></span></p><p>The Packers are on the verge of two monster contracts, and one will likely be going to Clay Matthews. If it wasn’t for a hamstring injury that kept him out of four games, Matthews could have put up some monstrous numbers. Even still, the fourth-year linebacker was the second-most valuable player on the Packers, and the second-highest graded 3-4 outside linebacker. Something tells me he won’t be on the undervalued list for long.</p><p>Cap Hit:<strong> $2.0m</strong></p><p>Performance Based Value:<strong> $10.0m</strong></p><p>Value Differential:<strong> +$8.0m</strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>2. Casey Hayward, Cornerback</strong></span></p><p>Only a rookie, the Vanderbilt product had one of the best seasons of any corner in the league. Hayward’s passer rating against of 31.1 was the lowest PFF has ever seen, and his overall grade of <strong><span style="color: #008000">+23.3</span></strong> was the third-highest among corners. His Performance Based Value was $8.3m despite playing just 63% of the total defensive snaps. Hayward also ended up with the best run defense grade in the Packers’ secondary and was seventh among all cornerbacks in tackling efficiency. After playing 69% of his snaps in the slot in 2012 it will be interesting to see if Hayward can unseat Sam Shields or Tramon Williams for a starting role in 2013.</p><p>Cap Hit:<strong> $602k</strong></p><p>Performance Based Value:<strong> $8.3m</strong></p><p>Value Differential:<strong> <strong>+</strong>$7.7m</strong></p><p></p><p><strong>8. Mike Neal, DE – </strong>Cap: $708k, PBV: $2.5m, Value Differential: <strong>+</strong>$1.8m</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="FrankRizzo, post: 491068, member: 2232"] By the way, Pro Football Focus grades Pickett as our 5th most Overvalued Player, and I'm sad & scared to say his play is going to decline further on his big ole' legs. [url]https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/02/performance-based-value-green-bay-packers/[/url] [SIZE=4][COLOR=#008000][B]Overvalued[/B][/COLOR][/SIZE] [SIZE=3][B]1. Charles Woodson*, Safety[/B][/SIZE] Unlike Jones, Woodson’s position change was not an instant success. He started only seven games before breaking his collarbone and missing the next nine. In those seven games he graded positively only twice. It wasn’t that his play was hurting the Packers, it was that his contract was signed as an elite corner and he has aged into an adequate safety. With Woodson’s upcoming $9.5m cap hit in 2013, the Packers already decided to part ways with the veteran safety. He could still land with another team, but it will likely be for a cap number closer to his performance based value from 2012. Cap Hit:[B] $11.4m[/B] Performance Based Value:[B] $1.4m[/B] Value Differential:[B] -$10.0m[/B] [SIZE=3][B]2. Greg Jennings*, Wide Receiver[/B][/SIZE] Jennings is another whose value in 2012 was greatly hampered by injury. He made only eight starts in the regular season and played only 435 snaps. Even still, his production wasn’t up to his own standards. His numbers extrapolated to a 16 game season would have reached 72 receptions, 732 yards, and eight touchdowns. His 10.2 yards per catch was the lowest of his career by 4 yards. Jennings [URL='https://www.profootballfocus.com/about/pff-signature-stats/#YardsPerRouteRun']Yards Per Route Run[/URL] was the fourth-highest among Packer receivers, at 1.28, even though he had the second-highest target percentage (20%). Those numbers make it pretty clear why the Packers are content to let Jennings hit the open market this summer. Cap Hit:[B] $7.5m[/B] Performance Based Value:[B] $1.9m[/B] Value Differential:[B] -$5.6m[/B] [SIZE=3][B]3. Tramon Williams, Cornerback[/B][/SIZE] In 2012 the Packers had the second-highest cumulative PFF pass coverage grade, and the fourth-lowest passer rating against. What got lost in the success of their secondary was the lackluster play of No. 1 corner Tramon Williams. Williams signed his contract extension in the middle of the 2010 season, and after his great run in the postseason it looked like a steal. In 2011, though, he gave up the most yards in the league and he didn’t improve greatly in 2012. Over the last 10 games this season, including the playoffs, Williams compiled a total grade of [B][COLOR=#ff0000]-9.9[/COLOR][/B]. Williams’ cap hit will only grow the next two seasons, and he’ll have to step it up in order to not make the bottom three again. Cap Hit:[B] $7.4m[/B] Performance Based Value:[B] $2.3m[/B] Value Differential:[B] -$5.1m[/B] [B]4. Jermichael Finley, TE – [/B]Cap: $5.3m, PBV: $1.0m, Value Differential: -$4.2m [B]5. Ryan Pickett, NT – [/B]Cap: $5.8m, PBV: $1.6m, Value Differential: -$4.2m [SIZE=4][COLOR=#008000][B]Undervalued[/B][/COLOR][/SIZE] [SIZE=3][B]1. Clay Matthews, Outside Linebacker[/B][/SIZE] The Packers are on the verge of two monster contracts, and one will likely be going to Clay Matthews. If it wasn’t for a hamstring injury that kept him out of four games, Matthews could have put up some monstrous numbers. Even still, the fourth-year linebacker was the second-most valuable player on the Packers, and the second-highest graded 3-4 outside linebacker. Something tells me he won’t be on the undervalued list for long. Cap Hit:[B] $2.0m[/B] Performance Based Value:[B] $10.0m[/B] Value Differential:[B] +$8.0m[/B] [SIZE=3][B]2. Casey Hayward, Cornerback[/B][/SIZE] Only a rookie, the Vanderbilt product had one of the best seasons of any corner in the league. Hayward’s passer rating against of 31.1 was the lowest PFF has ever seen, and his overall grade of [B][COLOR=#008000]+23.3[/COLOR][/B] was the third-highest among corners. His Performance Based Value was $8.3m despite playing just 63% of the total defensive snaps. Hayward also ended up with the best run defense grade in the Packers’ secondary and was seventh among all cornerbacks in tackling efficiency. After playing 69% of his snaps in the slot in 2012 it will be interesting to see if Hayward can unseat Sam Shields or Tramon Williams for a starting role in 2013. Cap Hit:[B] $602k[/B] Performance Based Value:[B] $8.3m[/B] Value Differential:[B] [B]+[/B]$7.7m[/B] [B][/B] [B]8. Mike Neal, DE – [/B]Cap: $708k, PBV: $2.5m, Value Differential: [B]+[/B]$1.8m [/QUOTE]
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