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Bill Polian on Ted Thompson: "Fans should applaud him"
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<blockquote data-quote="El Guapo" data-source="post: 494066" data-attributes="member: 5830"><p>So if Polian's 50% success rate in Free Agency is correct, you've got to factor in costs as well. You pay a premium for those guys in the market. If your draft success is at 50% as well, you would pay much less on the rookie pay scale for those players than those on the FA market.</p><p> </p><p>I've described my model to folks in the past so I won't dwell on the details, but the Packers success rate in the draft according to my analysis has been:</p><p> </p><p>32% Pre-Ron Wolf 1980-91</p><p>47% Ron Wolf 1992-01</p><p>24% Mike Sherman 2002-04</p><p>52% Ted Thompson 2005-2010</p><p> </p><p>So for Wolf and Thompson, their drafting success means that it is more fiscally responsible to stay out of the free agent market because players from the draft are cheaper than players from free agency.</p><p> </p><p>They didn't have free agency before Ron Wolf, but had that been in place we would have needed to spend in FA to put decent teams together. Since we couldn't do that, the Packers sucked in the 1980s (1989 the lone exception). However, Mike Sherman was the worst at drafting and therefore played the FA market the most. He also sucked at finding good free agents - I suspect his success rate in free agency was well short of the 50% average. In any case, Sherman's lack of success as a GM overshadowed his success as a HC which led to a lack of talent on the Packers roster by 2005 and 2006.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="El Guapo, post: 494066, member: 5830"] So if Polian's 50% success rate in Free Agency is correct, you've got to factor in costs as well. You pay a premium for those guys in the market. If your draft success is at 50% as well, you would pay much less on the rookie pay scale for those players than those on the FA market. I've described my model to folks in the past so I won't dwell on the details, but the Packers success rate in the draft according to my analysis has been: 32% Pre-Ron Wolf 1980-91 47% Ron Wolf 1992-01 24% Mike Sherman 2002-04 52% Ted Thompson 2005-2010 So for Wolf and Thompson, their drafting success means that it is more fiscally responsible to stay out of the free agent market because players from the draft are cheaper than players from free agency. They didn't have free agency before Ron Wolf, but had that been in place we would have needed to spend in FA to put decent teams together. Since we couldn't do that, the Packers sucked in the 1980s (1989 the lone exception). However, Mike Sherman was the worst at drafting and therefore played the FA market the most. He also sucked at finding good free agents - I suspect his success rate in free agency was well short of the 50% average. In any case, Sherman's lack of success as a GM overshadowed his success as a HC which led to a lack of talent on the Packers roster by 2005 and 2006. [/QUOTE]
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Bill Polian on Ted Thompson: "Fans should applaud him"
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