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Are we overvaluing our own and undervaluing free agents?
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 758648" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>Hyde and Hayward look like FA bargains in retrospect because their play with their new teams was far better than anything Dom Capers ever got out of them. The money they received was pretty fair based on what they had done up to that point in Green Bay. They are bargains now because of what they've done since the contracts were signed. </p><p></p><p>As for Tretter, he was discounted because it was unclear whether he was ever actually going to stay healthy long enough to put all or most of a season together. He went on the PUP in August of his rookie year and wasn't activated until December. He spent the first two months of 2014 on IR. And then in 2016, he played 7 games and was then done for the season.</p><p></p><p>This is not to say that Linsley has a perfectly clean track record as far as health goes. But his ten missed starts in four years pales in comparison to Tretter's issues. My sense is also that he's the superior player of the two, but I'm not going to pretend to pay enough attention to center play to be dogmatic about that. </p><p></p><p>I think most would agree that Nelson's contract has proven a worthy investment given the production he's returned over the life of it. He got paid 4 year, 39M in 2014. He put up 2,776 yards and 27 touchdowns in the two years after the deal was signed. I'm going to call foul on anyone who factors in the final stats from the Brett Hundley year. In his five games with Rodgers last year, he was still producing at a rate that comes out to 80/928/19 if extrapolated over a full season. It's true that he's starting to lose some of his ability here at the end of the contract, but GB has also put themselves in a position to cut him with over 10M in cap savings if they see fit. </p><p></p><p>Cobb has been overpaid for a long time because the contract he signed was commensurate with his performance in the years preceding it. When he signed, he was coming off a 91/1287/12 campaign and reportedly turned down more money to stay in Green Bay. He's never touched that production since, and thus he's never really lived up to the contract. People debate the reason why. I personally believe that the spat of nagging injuries he's dealt with robbed him of some of his explosive playmaking ability. But regardless, his contract was fair for his production and he was only 25 years old at the time. I don't think anyone could have seen the drop-off coming. The team is also in a position to save over 9M against the cap if they cut him at this point.</p><p></p><p>On the WR position as a whole, Nelson, Cobb, and Adams only overlap contract-wise for one season. It's a little bit misleading to highlight the fact that they have three of the highest paid wide receivers on one roster. While true, they really have the last years of two old contracts overlapping with the first year of a new contract. Even if they elected to keep all three and not renegotiate, they're pretty much fine given that all that money comes off the books in 2019. Had they allowed a great, homegrown talent in Adams to walk simply because his new deal has to coexist with Nelson's and Cobb's for one season (if they actually keep both players), Packer fans, Rodgers, and McCarthy would have rightly been outraged. </p><p></p><p>Adams and Linsley's deals look huge right now (and they are big, no doubt) in part because all new deals are going to look too big to fans as the salary cap continues to rise. Here are the increases going back to 2012:</p><p></p><p>2012: 120M</p><p>2013: 123M</p><p>2014: 133M</p><p>2015: 143M</p><p>2016: 155M</p><p>2017: 167M</p><p>2018: Predicted between 174 and 178M</p><p></p><p>So you take a guy like Alex Mack, arguably the best center in the league, and look at his deal (5/45) and think that Linsley's numbers are too close (3/25) given that Mack's the superior player. However, since Mack signed that deal, there is approximately ~13% more pie to be sliced up. So if he signed that same deal today, it would be more like 50-51M and the disparity between Linsley and Mack would be better represented in the dollars. </p><p></p><p>As more young players come off rookie deals and sign extensions in this current cap climate, deals like the ones we gave Adams and Linsley will show themselves to be much more reasonable than they look now.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 758648, member: 12283"] Hyde and Hayward look like FA bargains in retrospect because their play with their new teams was far better than anything Dom Capers ever got out of them. The money they received was pretty fair based on what they had done up to that point in Green Bay. They are bargains now because of what they've done since the contracts were signed. As for Tretter, he was discounted because it was unclear whether he was ever actually going to stay healthy long enough to put all or most of a season together. He went on the PUP in August of his rookie year and wasn't activated until December. He spent the first two months of 2014 on IR. And then in 2016, he played 7 games and was then done for the season. This is not to say that Linsley has a perfectly clean track record as far as health goes. But his ten missed starts in four years pales in comparison to Tretter's issues. My sense is also that he's the superior player of the two, but I'm not going to pretend to pay enough attention to center play to be dogmatic about that. I think most would agree that Nelson's contract has proven a worthy investment given the production he's returned over the life of it. He got paid 4 year, 39M in 2014. He put up 2,776 yards and 27 touchdowns in the two years after the deal was signed. I'm going to call foul on anyone who factors in the final stats from the Brett Hundley year. In his five games with Rodgers last year, he was still producing at a rate that comes out to 80/928/19 if extrapolated over a full season. It's true that he's starting to lose some of his ability here at the end of the contract, but GB has also put themselves in a position to cut him with over 10M in cap savings if they see fit. Cobb has been overpaid for a long time because the contract he signed was commensurate with his performance in the years preceding it. When he signed, he was coming off a 91/1287/12 campaign and reportedly turned down more money to stay in Green Bay. He's never touched that production since, and thus he's never really lived up to the contract. People debate the reason why. I personally believe that the spat of nagging injuries he's dealt with robbed him of some of his explosive playmaking ability. But regardless, his contract was fair for his production and he was only 25 years old at the time. I don't think anyone could have seen the drop-off coming. The team is also in a position to save over 9M against the cap if they cut him at this point. On the WR position as a whole, Nelson, Cobb, and Adams only overlap contract-wise for one season. It's a little bit misleading to highlight the fact that they have three of the highest paid wide receivers on one roster. While true, they really have the last years of two old contracts overlapping with the first year of a new contract. Even if they elected to keep all three and not renegotiate, they're pretty much fine given that all that money comes off the books in 2019. Had they allowed a great, homegrown talent in Adams to walk simply because his new deal has to coexist with Nelson's and Cobb's for one season (if they actually keep both players), Packer fans, Rodgers, and McCarthy would have rightly been outraged. Adams and Linsley's deals look huge right now (and they are big, no doubt) in part because all new deals are going to look too big to fans as the salary cap continues to rise. Here are the increases going back to 2012: 2012: 120M 2013: 123M 2014: 133M 2015: 143M 2016: 155M 2017: 167M 2018: Predicted between 174 and 178M So you take a guy like Alex Mack, arguably the best center in the league, and look at his deal (5/45) and think that Linsley's numbers are too close (3/25) given that Mack's the superior player. However, since Mack signed that deal, there is approximately ~13% more pie to be sliced up. So if he signed that same deal today, it would be more like 50-51M and the disparity between Linsley and Mack would be better represented in the dollars. As more young players come off rookie deals and sign extensions in this current cap climate, deals like the ones we gave Adams and Linsley will show themselves to be much more reasonable than they look now. [/QUOTE]
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Are we overvaluing our own and undervaluing free agents?
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