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Aaron Rodgers: Mr. Irrelevant in fourth quarter
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 473995"><p>Actually, DET was Rodgers' 4th. comeback in the 4th. quarter this season. Unfortunately, we did not hold that lead in 2 of them.</p><p> </p><p>SEA: 16 plays, 82 yards, 1 yd. TD run by Benson with 8:44 left on clock</p><p>NO: 7 plays, 57 yards, 11 yd. TD pass to Nelson with 7:00 left on clock</p><p>IND: 2 plays, 49 yards, 8 yd. TD pass to Jones with 4:30 left on clock</p><p>DET: 6 plays, 83 yards, 22 yd. TD pass to Cobb with 1:55 left on clock</p><p> </p><p>This microcosm illustrates the several meaningful flaws in the 4th. quarter comeback WIN stat:</p><p> </p><p>1. Opportunity: In order to rack up a lot of 4th. quarter comeback wins, you need to be trailing in the 4th. quarter with some regularity. This is clearly not the objective of the first 3+ quarters of play. Further, the deficit needs to be manageable...that deficit going into the 4th. needs to be narrow on a regular basis to rack up those wins.</p><p> </p><p>Rodgers has had opportunities this season. Last season the Pack held the lead going into the 4th. in all 15 of Rodgers' starts. So, you need to have a good enough team to keep you close (2012 Packers), but no so explosive as to consistently hold the lead into the 4th. (2011 Packers).</p><p> </p><p>2. QB is not the only player on the field: In the IND comeback drive, 41 of those yards came on Green's scamper. You have to give Rodgers credit for getting the ball in the end zone, but it's not quite the same thing as a sustained passing drive.</p><p> </p><p>3. QB does not Play D: IND goes 13 plays, 81 yards to take back the lead with 0:34 left on the clock. This fact, oddly, goes underappreciated. Having a clutch D that holds late leads gets you the W.</p><p> </p><p>4. Sh*t Happens, to the Good: NO's Hartley misses a 48 yd. FG to take back the lead with 2:49 left on the clock.</p><p> </p><p>5. Sh*t Happens, to the Bad: Seattle.</p><p> </p><p>In the final analysis, the sample size is too small and the circumstances of each game having enough peculiarities to render the bare stats meaningless. The only way to make sense of this stat is to look at each game individually and establish a QB point system to allocate QB responsibility for wins and losses in those circumstances. That would be so highly subjective as to have little credibility, and game tape review so time consuming as to render it nearly impossible.</p><p> </p><p>QB Rating, on the other hand, takes in 1000's of plays over a career for a meaningful sample size, and has a demonstrated high correlation to winning.</p><p> </p><p>This is not to say leading a 4th. quarter winning drive is meaningless; only that career stats measuring this are meaningless.</p><p> </p><p>Nobody is going to remember Matt Ryan's gaudy comeback stats over the last few seasons since it did not buy a single playoff win. Everybody remembers "The Catch".</p><p> </p><p>And which would you rather have...a 19 game winning streak without trailing in the 4th. quarter or Ryan's comeback stats?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 473995"] Actually, DET was Rodgers' 4th. comeback in the 4th. quarter this season. Unfortunately, we did not hold that lead in 2 of them. SEA: 16 plays, 82 yards, 1 yd. TD run by Benson with 8:44 left on clock NO: 7 plays, 57 yards, 11 yd. TD pass to Nelson with 7:00 left on clock IND: 2 plays, 49 yards, 8 yd. TD pass to Jones with 4:30 left on clock DET: 6 plays, 83 yards, 22 yd. TD pass to Cobb with 1:55 left on clock This microcosm illustrates the several meaningful flaws in the 4th. quarter comeback WIN stat: 1. Opportunity: In order to rack up a lot of 4th. quarter comeback wins, you need to be trailing in the 4th. quarter with some regularity. This is clearly not the objective of the first 3+ quarters of play. Further, the deficit needs to be manageable...that deficit going into the 4th. needs to be narrow on a regular basis to rack up those wins. Rodgers has had opportunities this season. Last season the Pack held the lead going into the 4th. in all 15 of Rodgers' starts. So, you need to have a good enough team to keep you close (2012 Packers), but no so explosive as to consistently hold the lead into the 4th. (2011 Packers). 2. QB is not the only player on the field: In the IND comeback drive, 41 of those yards came on Green's scamper. You have to give Rodgers credit for getting the ball in the end zone, but it's not quite the same thing as a sustained passing drive. 3. QB does not Play D: IND goes 13 plays, 81 yards to take back the lead with 0:34 left on the clock. This fact, oddly, goes underappreciated. Having a clutch D that holds late leads gets you the W. 4. Sh*t Happens, to the Good: NO's Hartley misses a 48 yd. FG to take back the lead with 2:49 left on the clock. 5. Sh*t Happens, to the Bad: Seattle. In the final analysis, the sample size is too small and the circumstances of each game having enough peculiarities to render the bare stats meaningless. The only way to make sense of this stat is to look at each game individually and establish a QB point system to allocate QB responsibility for wins and losses in those circumstances. That would be so highly subjective as to have little credibility, and game tape review so time consuming as to render it nearly impossible. QB Rating, on the other hand, takes in 1000's of plays over a career for a meaningful sample size, and has a demonstrated high correlation to winning. This is not to say leading a 4th. quarter winning drive is meaningless; only that career stats measuring this are meaningless. Nobody is going to remember Matt Ryan's gaudy comeback stats over the last few seasons since it did not buy a single playoff win. Everybody remembers "The Catch". And which would you rather have...a 19 game winning streak without trailing in the 4th. quarter or Ryan's comeback stats? [/QUOTE]
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Aaron Rodgers: Mr. Irrelevant in fourth quarter
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