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2020 Salary Cap Situation
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 871622"><p>It's not that RBs are not important enough. Jones, a player with a modest load for a starting RB, accounted for 37% of team touches in 2019, 285 of 767. It ranges up to McCaffrey accounting for 52% of his team's touches in 2019.</p><p></p><p>For second contracts, it's the injury risk and mileage that supresses value. RB low draft values has its own reasons besides injury/mileage risks, importance of the position notwithstanding, a discussion for another time.</p><p></p><p>Here are the RBs who had 1,000+ rushing yards in their 3rd. season with their 3rd. - 8th. year rushing yardages listed in order for the last 7 seasons where we have an 8 year player record so I could get up to 20 names. "DNP" indicates "did not play" which could mean injured for the entire season, officially retired, or nobody would sign them. Sub-1,000 yard seasons are in bold. Seasons with yardage exceeding the 3rd. year total are in red.</p><p></p><p><strong><u>2008</u></strong></p><p><strong><u></u></strong></p><p>DeAngelo Williams: 1515, 1117<strong>, 361, 836, 737, 843</strong></p><p></p><p><strong><u>2009</u></strong></p><p><strong><u></u></strong></p><p>Adrian Peterson: 1383, 1298, <strong>970, </strong><span style="color: #ff4d4d"><strong>2097</strong></span>, 1266, <strong>75</strong></p><p>Ryan Grant: 1253, <strong>45, 559, 132, DNP, DNP</strong></p><p>Fred Jackson: 1062, <strong>927, 934, 437, 890, 525</strong></p><p></p><p><strong><u>2010</u></strong></p><p><strong><u></u></strong></p><p>Jamall Charles: 1467, <strong>83</strong>, <span style="color: #ff0000"><strong>1509</strong></span>, 1287, 1033, <strong>364</strong></p><p>Chris Johnson: 1364, 1047, 1043, 1077,<strong> 663, 814</strong></p><p>Rashard Mendenhall: 1273, <strong>928, 182, 687, DNP, DNP</strong></p><p>Ray Rice: 1220, <span style="color: #ff0000"><strong>1364</strong></span><span style="color: #ff4d4d">,</span> 1143, <strong>660, DNP, DNP</strong></p><p>Peyton Hillis: 1177<strong>, 587, 309, 247, 115</strong></p><p>Darren McFadden: 1157<strong>, 614, 707, 359, 534,</strong> 1089</p><p>Matt Forte: 1069, <strong>997</strong>, <span style="color: #ff4d4d"><strong>1094, 1339</strong></span>, 1038, <strong>898</strong></p><p>Green-Ellis: 1008<strong>, 667, </strong><span style="color: #ff4d4d"><strong>1094</strong></span><strong>, 756, DNP, DNP </strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong><u>2011</u></strong></p><p><strong><u></u></strong></p><p>LeSean McCoy: 1309, <strong>840</strong>, <span style="color: #ff4d4d"><strong>1607, 1319</strong></span>, <strong>895</strong>, 1267</p><p>Arian Foster: 1224, 1424, <strong>542</strong>, 1246, <strong>163, 55</strong></p><p>Shonn Green: 1054,<span style="color: #ff4d4d"><strong><strong> 1063</strong></strong></span><strong>, 295, 392, <strong>DNP, DNP</strong></strong></p><p>Beanie Wells: 1047,<strong><strong> 234, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP</strong></strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong><u>2012</u></strong></p><p><strong><u></u></strong></p><p>C.J. Spiller: 1244, <strong>933, 300, 112, 18, 0</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><u><strong>2013</strong></u></p><p><u></u></p><p>None</p><p></p><p><u><strong>2014</strong></u></p><p><u><strong></strong></u></p><p>Demarco Murray: 1121, <strong><span style="color: #ff4d4d">1845</span></strong>, <strong>702</strong>, <span style="color: #ff4d4d"><strong>1287</strong></span>, <strong>659, DNP </strong></p><p>Alfred Morris: 1074, <strong>751, 243, 547, 428, 4</strong></p><p>Lamar Miller: 1099<strong>, 872, 1073, 888, 973, DNP</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>In a four year second contract for a star RB, the odds are not good that you'll get your money's worth. In a backloaded contract you're not likely to see very manageable dead cap until year 4. If you look at the 2nd. to last number for these players, the player's 7th. years where some meaningful dead cap would be on the books if the contracts were generous, the numbers are not good.</p><p></p><p>14 of 20 did not break 800 yards rushing in their 7th. season. 6 of those were out of the league altogether while only 3 gained a 1,000 yards in their 7th. season. Only 3 of 20 improved on their their 3rd. year rushing yards in their 4th. season.</p><p></p><p>While this is hardly a scientific study of the matter, it does give indications of the risk involved in RB second deals. It suggests the moneyball approach is:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Don't sign running backs to second contracts until after the 4th. season.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Only do that if the guy is still productive, healthy and has not racked up excessive college + NFL touches. (That might be Jones given his touches to date.)</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Limit the extension offer to two years, in which case he will likely sign elsewhere and you will likely be thankful for that over time.</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 871622"] It's not that RBs are not important enough. Jones, a player with a modest load for a starting RB, accounted for 37% of team touches in 2019, 285 of 767. It ranges up to McCaffrey accounting for 52% of his team's touches in 2019. For second contracts, it's the injury risk and mileage that supresses value. RB low draft values has its own reasons besides injury/mileage risks, importance of the position notwithstanding, a discussion for another time. Here are the RBs who had 1,000+ rushing yards in their 3rd. season with their 3rd. - 8th. year rushing yardages listed in order for the last 7 seasons where we have an 8 year player record so I could get up to 20 names. "DNP" indicates "did not play" which could mean injured for the entire season, officially retired, or nobody would sign them. Sub-1,000 yard seasons are in bold. Seasons with yardage exceeding the 3rd. year total are in red. [B][U]2008 [/U][/B] DeAngelo Williams: 1515, 1117[B], 361, 836, 737, 843[/B] [B][U]2009 [/U][/B] Adrian Peterson: 1383, 1298, [B]970, [/B][COLOR=#ff4d4d][B]2097[/B][/COLOR], 1266, [B]75[/B] Ryan Grant: 1253, [B]45, 559, 132, DNP, DNP[/B] Fred Jackson: 1062, [B]927, 934, 437, 890, 525[/B] [B][U]2010 [/U][/B] Jamall Charles: 1467, [B]83[/B], [COLOR=#ff0000][B]1509[/B][/COLOR], 1287, 1033, [B]364[/B] Chris Johnson: 1364, 1047, 1043, 1077,[B] 663, 814[/B] Rashard Mendenhall: 1273, [B]928, 182, 687, DNP, DNP[/B] Ray Rice: 1220, [COLOR=#ff0000][B]1364[/B][/COLOR][COLOR=#ff4d4d],[/COLOR] 1143, [B]660, DNP, DNP[/B] Peyton Hillis: 1177[B], 587, 309, 247, 115[/B] Darren McFadden: 1157[B], 614, 707, 359, 534,[/B] 1089 Matt Forte: 1069, [B]997[/B], [COLOR=#ff4d4d][B]1094, 1339[/B][/COLOR], 1038, [B]898[/B] Green-Ellis: 1008[B], 667, [/B][COLOR=#ff4d4d][B]1094[/B][/COLOR][B], 756, DNP, DNP [U]2011 [/U][/B] LeSean McCoy: 1309, [B]840[/B], [COLOR=#ff4d4d][B]1607, 1319[/B][/COLOR], [B]895[/B], 1267 Arian Foster: 1224, 1424, [B]542[/B], 1246, [B]163, 55[/B] Shonn Green: 1054,[COLOR=#ff4d4d][B][B] 1063[/B][/B][/COLOR][B], 295, 392, [B]DNP, DNP[/B][/B] Beanie Wells: 1047,[B][B] 234, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP[/B] [U]2012 [/U][/B] C.J. Spiller: 1244, [B]933, 300, 112, 18, 0 [/B] [U][B]2013[/B] [/U] None [U][B]2014 [/B][/U] Demarco Murray: 1121, [B][COLOR=#ff4d4d]1845[/COLOR][/B], [B]702[/B], [COLOR=#ff4d4d][B]1287[/B][/COLOR], [B]659, DNP [/B] Alfred Morris: 1074, [B]751, 243, 547, 428, 4[/B] Lamar Miller: 1099[B], 872, 1073, 888, 973, DNP [/B] In a four year second contract for a star RB, the odds are not good that you'll get your money's worth. In a backloaded contract you're not likely to see very manageable dead cap until year 4. If you look at the 2nd. to last number for these players, the player's 7th. years where some meaningful dead cap would be on the books if the contracts were generous, the numbers are not good. 14 of 20 did not break 800 yards rushing in their 7th. season. 6 of those were out of the league altogether while only 3 gained a 1,000 yards in their 7th. season. Only 3 of 20 improved on their their 3rd. year rushing yards in their 4th. season. While this is hardly a scientific study of the matter, it does give indications of the risk involved in RB second deals. It suggests the moneyball approach is: [LIST] [*]Don't sign running backs to second contracts until after the 4th. season. [*]Only do that if the guy is still productive, healthy and has not racked up excessive college + NFL touches. (That might be Jones given his touches to date.) [*]Limit the extension offer to two years, in which case he will likely sign elsewhere and you will likely be thankful for that over time. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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