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2018 Salary Cap Analysis
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 779285"><p>"Middle of the league", on its face, is never auspicious. While one can note Philly's top 51 is currently $32 mil over the cap for 2019 relative to a $187 mil cap, on the other hand the Rams are $72 mil under that cap. Then one has to get into the weeds on who the FA's are, what re-signings or FA replacements would cost, and how promising their first contract bench players might be. That's a lot of weeds I'm neither prepared nor inclined to wade into than other than to note the well-publicized Aaron Donald impending contract and that at least in both case their QBs are under contract already for 2019.</p><p></p><p>I come at it from the perspective of whether the Packers look to me like a championship team now and, if not, what might be required to make it so the following year and what that might cost. From the "now" perspective, I'm not seeing it. Of course a 10 win playoff team is always the minimum expectation, but Packer teams better than this have not made it through the playoff slog. There are too many question marks: an overhaul of of the D-backfield with rookies and second year players (King and Jones) with disappointing rookie seasons under theit belts, coverage ILB, backups for injury prone OLBs, the right side of the O-Line, the #2 wideout. Then there's the question of whether Rodgers can still make<strong> all</strong> of the Rodgers throws, such as those move-right-throw-left bullets from 3/4.</p><p></p><p>This year's cap cost for Graham, Wilkerson, Williams and Lewis is about $13 mil, two or three of which may be rotational players, just to plug other holes. Graham and Williams cap costs go to $12.7 mil and $6.4 mil in 2019 with $8.9 mil dead cap between them, which reflects the true 2 year cost to plug those holes. Wilkerson and Lewis will be gone. A Wilkerson resurgence is being counted on to improve the pass rush; if he does in fact resurge and the win is not achieved, that cost will go up just to stay in place.</p><p></p><p>Then we pile on top of that Matthews, Cobb and Clinton-Dix FAs in 2019 in addition to Wilkerson. Then you have a couple of possible core players in Clark and Martinez who might be looking for that post-3rd. year extension in the "who else yah got" equation.</p><p></p><p>From 30,000 feet, the key to winning is getting performance equal to cap cost from vets and performance well above cap from first contract players. That requires stacking good drafts. That has not happened.</p><p></p><p>If nothing else, this picture goes toward illustrating why Rodgers does not yet have a contract that many assumed would have happened by now. Management might also share my concern as to whether Rodgers can still make all the throws justifying the kind of money being talked about. If "pay the man" was the #1 priority, the Packers would not have signed most of those FAs, would not have made that offer to Fuller, and would have gone to a 2 year plan. The cornerback draft was Plan B, not Plan A, in a kind of hedged approach.</p><p></p><p>I'm not critical at all of this draft; I think those first two picks get an A grade and have the best potential since the Matthews/Raji draft when considering the bonus 1st. rounder next season. But it was Plan B. Plan A in my opinion, expecially given the organizational overhaul that reaches from the President's responsibilites down to the roles of assistant coaches, is to get back to the playoffs <strong><em>now. </em></strong> Clearly, the perception was there was a lot more wrong with last season than just Rodgers absence.</p><p></p><p>As for the future of the salary cap, I thought during the 2016 fall off in ratings we would have seen the impact by now from declining ad revenue. Not so. It's pretty evident the cable and dish companies see the NFL as a key defense against cord cutting and will pay up at the expense of margins. Futher, the NFL keeps layering on-line and mobile contracts for supplemental revenue. I'm sure they're pleased as punch with the Supreme Court ruling opening up legalized betting. At the least, it should add more eyeball hours of viewership. At the most, they may secure licensing rights and revenue from the bookies.</p><p></p><p>It's starting to look like the cap increases will continue on pace until the new CBA after 2020.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 779285"] "Middle of the league", on its face, is never auspicious. While one can note Philly's top 51 is currently $32 mil over the cap for 2019 relative to a $187 mil cap, on the other hand the Rams are $72 mil under that cap. Then one has to get into the weeds on who the FA's are, what re-signings or FA replacements would cost, and how promising their first contract bench players might be. That's a lot of weeds I'm neither prepared nor inclined to wade into than other than to note the well-publicized Aaron Donald impending contract and that at least in both case their QBs are under contract already for 2019. I come at it from the perspective of whether the Packers look to me like a championship team now and, if not, what might be required to make it so the following year and what that might cost. From the "now" perspective, I'm not seeing it. Of course a 10 win playoff team is always the minimum expectation, but Packer teams better than this have not made it through the playoff slog. There are too many question marks: an overhaul of of the D-backfield with rookies and second year players (King and Jones) with disappointing rookie seasons under theit belts, coverage ILB, backups for injury prone OLBs, the right side of the O-Line, the #2 wideout. Then there's the question of whether Rodgers can still make[B] all[/B] of the Rodgers throws, such as those move-right-throw-left bullets from 3/4. This year's cap cost for Graham, Wilkerson, Williams and Lewis is about $13 mil, two or three of which may be rotational players, just to plug other holes. Graham and Williams cap costs go to $12.7 mil and $6.4 mil in 2019 with $8.9 mil dead cap between them, which reflects the true 2 year cost to plug those holes. Wilkerson and Lewis will be gone. A Wilkerson resurgence is being counted on to improve the pass rush; if he does in fact resurge and the win is not achieved, that cost will go up just to stay in place. Then we pile on top of that Matthews, Cobb and Clinton-Dix FAs in 2019 in addition to Wilkerson. Then you have a couple of possible core players in Clark and Martinez who might be looking for that post-3rd. year extension in the "who else yah got" equation. From 30,000 feet, the key to winning is getting performance equal to cap cost from vets and performance well above cap from first contract players. That requires stacking good drafts. That has not happened. If nothing else, this picture goes toward illustrating why Rodgers does not yet have a contract that many assumed would have happened by now. Management might also share my concern as to whether Rodgers can still make all the throws justifying the kind of money being talked about. If "pay the man" was the #1 priority, the Packers would not have signed most of those FAs, would not have made that offer to Fuller, and would have gone to a 2 year plan. The cornerback draft was Plan B, not Plan A, in a kind of hedged approach. I'm not critical at all of this draft; I think those first two picks get an A grade and have the best potential since the Matthews/Raji draft when considering the bonus 1st. rounder next season. But it was Plan B. Plan A in my opinion, expecially given the organizational overhaul that reaches from the President's responsibilites down to the roles of assistant coaches, is to get back to the playoffs [B][I]now. [/I][/B] Clearly, the perception was there was a lot more wrong with last season than just Rodgers absence. As for the future of the salary cap, I thought during the 2016 fall off in ratings we would have seen the impact by now from declining ad revenue. Not so. It's pretty evident the cable and dish companies see the NFL as a key defense against cord cutting and will pay up at the expense of margins. Futher, the NFL keeps layering on-line and mobile contracts for supplemental revenue. I'm sure they're pleased as punch with the Supreme Court ruling opening up legalized betting. At the least, it should add more eyeball hours of viewership. At the most, they may secure licensing rights and revenue from the bookies. It's starting to look like the cap increases will continue on pace until the new CBA after 2020. [/QUOTE]
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