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2018 Salary Cap Analysis
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 767984"><p>Time to make the donuts again. The math challenged or those with limited attentions spans might not want to bother reading further.</p><p></p><p>With updates for Graham and Wilkerson now included at the ususal suspect cites, the Packers Top 51 current cap space might be:</p><p></p><p>$19.5 mil <a href="https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/</a> or perhaps</p><p></p><p>$17.0 mil <a href="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/" target="_blank">http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/</a></p><p></p><p>Where the specific differences lies are not immediately apparent to me and I'm not taking the time to figure it out.</p><p></p><p>Now for the necessary subtraction estimates:</p><p></p><p>- players 52 and 53 at the rookie minimum: about $1 mil</p><p>- PS: about $1 mil</p><p>* draftees: about $3.0 mil</p><p><u>** PUP/IR replacement reserve to which I'd allocate at least $4 mil</u></p><p> Total Subtractions: $9 mil</p><p></p><p>* The draftee salary pool for this year is estimated at the bottom of this link: <a href="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/" target="_blank">http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/</a> The cap hit for the top 8 picks will be about $7.3 mil. If the 8 cheapest guys based on the current roster were cut to make room, the draftees replace $4.3 mil in cap for a net cap cost of $3.0 mil.</p><p></p><p>** Without a reserve, if a starter goes to PUP/IR and the need exists to sign a J. Evans or Brooks-type replacement, then a player of equal cap cost would have to be cut. That would be bad planning especially on a team with so many depth issues and a "win now" approach.</p><p></p><p><strong>So, with the $9 mil haircut off the top for the above subtractions, the current cap space effectively available for FAs is currently about <em>$8 mil - $10.5 </em>mil depending on which of the above cites one chooses to use.</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>Had the Packers signed Fuller to a deal identical to the Bears' structure, the 2018 cap hit would have been $6.5 mil but with the cap hit exploding starting in year 2:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://overthecap.com/player/kyle-fuller/2953/" target="_blank">https://overthecap.com/player/kyle-fuller/2953/</a></p><p></p><p>Had that deal been done, that would have left $1.5 mil - $4 mil to do something minor in FA with the true cost coming down the road.</p><p></p><p>However, looking to 2019, the above sites agree that the current cap cost for players under contract is about $130 mil for 30 players. Another $12 mil added to the cap next year would put the cap at $189 mil, or $59 mil in cap space currently.</p><p></p><p>A lot, right?</p><p></p><p>Not so fast. Had Fuller been added with that Bears-like contract (or another similar player under similar back loaded cap terms is acquired at some point in this off-season), the 2019 cap space drops to about $45 mil for 31 players.</p><p></p><p>Under those conditions, going into 2019, if you apply the same subtractions as noted above, the cap space drops to $36 mil but for only 38 players. Adding another 15 players at the rookie minimum drops the usable free cap space to about about $24 mil even if nobody ever carries that many rookies on the 53 man roster. Expect less than that $24 mil under this scenario.</p><p></p><p>Here's the rub. We have an evident "win now" approach in play. Do you think you can win a championship with the current roster + a Fuller-like alternative + a minor FA signing + the rookie class? I don't, but certainly many disagree. However, if you don't win that championship, it's rinse and repeat in 2019 except for one "minor" point:</p><p></p><p>None of the FAs in the following list are on that 2019 roster or included in the $24 million (or less) cap space noted below:</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/green-bay-packers/</a></p><p></p><p>So, the question to the "win now" advocates is if you think you can win with those upcoming FAs, and you don't win, where are you when they are gone or require chunks of cap to keep them around. Just to start, I don't see how these guys can get past Philly. That's just the high bar with lower bars also presenting significant challenges.</p><p></p><p>If we're to be honest with ourselves, this group as currently constituted is not as youthful, impactful or deep as the 2014 or 2015 group, and those teams were not without holes and depth issues.</p><p></p><p>I you don't win now, you're at a dead end unless you get 2 kick *** draft classes in the interim. The odds of that are slim.</p><p></p><p>This is why I have no problem with the Nelson release or the Burnett non-signing. It's why I have a big problem with the Graham and Wilkerson signings. Without those signings I'd endorse a Fuller-lke signing with less cap backloading as part of a multi-year plan. Renegtiating Matthews or Cobb into 2 year deals at half the annual cost (LOL, good luck with that) prolongs the issue. I would have preferred seeing them released and signing another quality second contract guy in prep for a 2019 run, Landry for instance. And you still need pretty good drafts, but you've at least added young players to the core, not expensive reclamation projects.</p><p></p><p>You can disagree about whether the Packers can win now; I don't think there's much room for argument about where this team stands if they don't.</p><p></p><p>We await the next roster and contract moves.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 767984"] Time to make the donuts again. The math challenged or those with limited attentions spans might not want to bother reading further. With updates for Graham and Wilkerson now included at the ususal suspect cites, the Packers Top 51 current cap space might be: $19.5 mil [URL]https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/[/URL] or perhaps $17.0 mil [URL]http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/[/URL] Where the specific differences lies are not immediately apparent to me and I'm not taking the time to figure it out. Now for the necessary subtraction estimates: - players 52 and 53 at the rookie minimum: about $1 mil - PS: about $1 mil * draftees: about $3.0 mil [U]** PUP/IR replacement reserve to which I'd allocate at least $4 mil[/U] Total Subtractions: $9 mil * The draftee salary pool for this year is estimated at the bottom of this link: [URL]http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/[/URL] The cap hit for the top 8 picks will be about $7.3 mil. If the 8 cheapest guys based on the current roster were cut to make room, the draftees replace $4.3 mil in cap for a net cap cost of $3.0 mil. ** Without a reserve, if a starter goes to PUP/IR and the need exists to sign a J. Evans or Brooks-type replacement, then a player of equal cap cost would have to be cut. That would be bad planning especially on a team with so many depth issues and a "win now" approach. [B]So, with the $9 mil haircut off the top for the above subtractions, the current cap space effectively available for FAs is currently about [I]$8 mil - $10.5 [/I]mil depending on which of the above cites one chooses to use. [/B] Had the Packers signed Fuller to a deal identical to the Bears' structure, the 2018 cap hit would have been $6.5 mil but with the cap hit exploding starting in year 2: [URL]https://overthecap.com/player/kyle-fuller/2953/[/URL] Had that deal been done, that would have left $1.5 mil - $4 mil to do something minor in FA with the true cost coming down the road. However, looking to 2019, the above sites agree that the current cap cost for players under contract is about $130 mil for 30 players. Another $12 mil added to the cap next year would put the cap at $189 mil, or $59 mil in cap space currently. A lot, right? Not so fast. Had Fuller been added with that Bears-like contract (or another similar player under similar back loaded cap terms is acquired at some point in this off-season), the 2019 cap space drops to about $45 mil for 31 players. Under those conditions, going into 2019, if you apply the same subtractions as noted above, the cap space drops to $36 mil but for only 38 players. Adding another 15 players at the rookie minimum drops the usable free cap space to about about $24 mil even if nobody ever carries that many rookies on the 53 man roster. Expect less than that $24 mil under this scenario. Here's the rub. We have an evident "win now" approach in play. Do you think you can win a championship with the current roster + a Fuller-like alternative + a minor FA signing + the rookie class? I don't, but certainly many disagree. However, if you don't win that championship, it's rinse and repeat in 2019 except for one "minor" point: None of the FAs in the following list are on that 2019 roster or included in the $24 million (or less) cap space noted below: [URL]http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/green-bay-packers/[/URL] So, the question to the "win now" advocates is if you think you can win with those upcoming FAs, and you don't win, where are you when they are gone or require chunks of cap to keep them around. Just to start, I don't see how these guys can get past Philly. That's just the high bar with lower bars also presenting significant challenges. If we're to be honest with ourselves, this group as currently constituted is not as youthful, impactful or deep as the 2014 or 2015 group, and those teams were not without holes and depth issues. I you don't win now, you're at a dead end unless you get 2 kick *** draft classes in the interim. The odds of that are slim. This is why I have no problem with the Nelson release or the Burnett non-signing. It's why I have a big problem with the Graham and Wilkerson signings. Without those signings I'd endorse a Fuller-lke signing with less cap backloading as part of a multi-year plan. Renegtiating Matthews or Cobb into 2 year deals at half the annual cost (LOL, good luck with that) prolongs the issue. I would have preferred seeing them released and signing another quality second contract guy in prep for a 2019 run, Landry for instance. And you still need pretty good drafts, but you've at least added young players to the core, not expensive reclamation projects. You can disagree about whether the Packers can win now; I don't think there's much room for argument about where this team stands if they don't. We await the next roster and contract moves. [/QUOTE]
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