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2017 Packers cap situation
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 706654"><p>Time for a refresh:</p><p></p><p><a href="http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/</a></p><p></p><p>The $35.7 mil cap space for 2017 in the above link assumes a $166 mil league cap plus cap carryover from 2016 (most of which accrued from the Sitton release). The NFL announced in December that they estimate the league cap will be in the $166 - $170 mil range. Let's use the conservative $166 mil as has overthecap.com. (What a deal! Crappy TV ratings and the NFL gets paid more anyway!)</p><p></p><p>Current 2017 cap liabilities total $140.3 mil. That covers the 39 players currently under contract for 2017 as listed in the link plus the tiny bit of dead money shown.</p><p></p><p>Now, lets look at the necessary subtractions from the $35.7 cap space.</p><p></p><p>1) Draftees: in 2016, Clark, Spriggs, Fackrell and Martinez accounted for $3.8 mil in 2016 cap. Below that the guys are pretty close to the rookie minimum and I'll deal with that in a bit. Last year's guys came out of the #27 draft position; this year it will be #29. There's very little cap cost difference between the two positions. On the other hand, with the league cap bumped $11 mil, the rookie salary scale should go up. Long story short, let's round up the cap for the top 4 picks to $4.0 mil to make it easy.</p><p></p><p>That brings the roster to 43 players with $31.7 mil cap space left.</p><p></p><p>2) 53 man roster: At opening day everybody on the 53 man roster counts against the cap. At a minimum, we need to account for 10 additional players at or near the rookie salary minimum...could be the low draft picks or UDFAs. The rookie minimum for 2017 is $465,000, ergo the cap hit for these 10 players is around $4.7 mil.</p><p></p><p>That brings the roster to 53 players with remaining cap of space of $27.0 mil.</p><p></p><p>3) Practice squad: They count against the cap. Using last year's pay of $6,9oo per week x 10 players x 17 weeks (yes, they do get paid for the bye week) = about $1.2 mil. We don't always carry 10; then again they also get paid more weeks for the playoffs. Let's leave it at $1.2 mil; it could be a bit higher but I don't know what the weekly pay will be for 2017.</p><p></p><p>That leaves $25.8 mil cap.</p><p></p><p>4) IR, PS protection, injury settlements: IR guys count against the cap. This past season between Shields, Lacy and Goodson, the Packers had the lions share of $14.2 mil in cap not playing. The Packers also paid a couple PS guys more than minimum. Sandland got the equivalent of rookie minimum for a bit when somebody tried to sign him. There was another who got a little more, but that name escapes me. Injury settlements count too. PS protection and injury settlements (which are usually reserved for low paid players for nominal amounts) are small enough I won't include anything for that).</p><p></p><p>So, how much should be kept in reserve for IR guys? If you replace them with just minimum salary rookies, then it's $465,000 per head. I'd say $5 mil is the rock bottom minimum to be kept in reserve for IR. Thompson typically keeps around $10 mil to start the season knowing he can carry over what he doesn't need.</p><p></p><p>You know, for all the chatter about injuries, the Packers total of 2 core players and one ST regular on IR is pretty low on the league scale.</p><p></p><p>Let's say TT is feeling the heat and goes into FA and and the rock bottom $5 mil. reserve.</p><p></p><p>5) For the sake of argument, let's say Shields is released. That's $9 mil in cap savings.</p><p></p><p><strong>That brings us to $29.8 mil cap space, covering a full 53 man roster with 14 rookies, full practice squad and a slim $5 mil in reserve.</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>Now let's look at who is not among those 53 roster players, i.e., the Packer free agents (and Shields):</p><p></p><p>Offense: Lang, Cook, Lacy, Michael, Tretter, Barclay, Allison (exclusive rights), Kerridge (exclusive rights)</p><p></p><p>Defense: Shields, Peppers, Perry, Jones, Hyde, Elliott (restricted), Ringo (exclusive rights)</p><p></p><p>ST: Goode, Schum (exclusive rights)</p><p></p><p>That's a lot of ground to cover with draft picks, $30 mil in cap, and "development" among the 39 already under contract while trying to improve the defense. Of course there's a possibility of a big ticket negotiation. Matthews is a guy often mentioned in these pages. If someone mentions that in response I might comment on how that's easier said than done.</p><p></p><p>On the subject of a semi-shutdown corner replacement for Shields, a guy that can play one-on-one against #2 receivers and many #1's while getting burned with tolerable frequency, consider the 20th. ranked CB in average salary for 2016:</p><p></p><p>Kareem Jackson, 4 years, $34 mil, average cap $8.5 mil.</p><p></p><p>That doesn't leave a lot for everything else in terms of replacing (or re-signing) the value represented in the Packer free agents while also improving the defense.</p><p></p><p>I guess I have to say what I said the last 2 years: Thompson needs one helluva draft.</p><p></p><p>Postscript: The Packers were confident enough that Taylor could do an adequate job that they took the opportunity to save cap for 2017 in cutting Sitton. Is it not obvious now, with these numbers, cap was a factor in the decision?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 706654"] Time for a refresh: [URL]http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/[/URL] The $35.7 mil cap space for 2017 in the above link assumes a $166 mil league cap plus cap carryover from 2016 (most of which accrued from the Sitton release). The NFL announced in December that they estimate the league cap will be in the $166 - $170 mil range. Let's use the conservative $166 mil as has overthecap.com. (What a deal! Crappy TV ratings and the NFL gets paid more anyway!) Current 2017 cap liabilities total $140.3 mil. That covers the 39 players currently under contract for 2017 as listed in the link plus the tiny bit of dead money shown. Now, lets look at the necessary subtractions from the $35.7 cap space. 1) Draftees: in 2016, Clark, Spriggs, Fackrell and Martinez accounted for $3.8 mil in 2016 cap. Below that the guys are pretty close to the rookie minimum and I'll deal with that in a bit. Last year's guys came out of the #27 draft position; this year it will be #29. There's very little cap cost difference between the two positions. On the other hand, with the league cap bumped $11 mil, the rookie salary scale should go up. Long story short, let's round up the cap for the top 4 picks to $4.0 mil to make it easy. That brings the roster to 43 players with $31.7 mil cap space left. 2) 53 man roster: At opening day everybody on the 53 man roster counts against the cap. At a minimum, we need to account for 10 additional players at or near the rookie salary minimum...could be the low draft picks or UDFAs. The rookie minimum for 2017 is $465,000, ergo the cap hit for these 10 players is around $4.7 mil. That brings the roster to 53 players with remaining cap of space of $27.0 mil. 3) Practice squad: They count against the cap. Using last year's pay of $6,9oo per week x 10 players x 17 weeks (yes, they do get paid for the bye week) = about $1.2 mil. We don't always carry 10; then again they also get paid more weeks for the playoffs. Let's leave it at $1.2 mil; it could be a bit higher but I don't know what the weekly pay will be for 2017. That leaves $25.8 mil cap. 4) IR, PS protection, injury settlements: IR guys count against the cap. This past season between Shields, Lacy and Goodson, the Packers had the lions share of $14.2 mil in cap not playing. The Packers also paid a couple PS guys more than minimum. Sandland got the equivalent of rookie minimum for a bit when somebody tried to sign him. There was another who got a little more, but that name escapes me. Injury settlements count too. PS protection and injury settlements (which are usually reserved for low paid players for nominal amounts) are small enough I won't include anything for that). So, how much should be kept in reserve for IR guys? If you replace them with just minimum salary rookies, then it's $465,000 per head. I'd say $5 mil is the rock bottom minimum to be kept in reserve for IR. Thompson typically keeps around $10 mil to start the season knowing he can carry over what he doesn't need. You know, for all the chatter about injuries, the Packers total of 2 core players and one ST regular on IR is pretty low on the league scale. Let's say TT is feeling the heat and goes into FA and and the rock bottom $5 mil. reserve. 5) For the sake of argument, let's say Shields is released. That's $9 mil in cap savings. [B]That brings us to $29.8 mil cap space, covering a full 53 man roster with 14 rookies, full practice squad and a slim $5 mil in reserve. [/B] Now let's look at who is not among those 53 roster players, i.e., the Packer free agents (and Shields): Offense: Lang, Cook, Lacy, Michael, Tretter, Barclay, Allison (exclusive rights), Kerridge (exclusive rights) Defense: Shields, Peppers, Perry, Jones, Hyde, Elliott (restricted), Ringo (exclusive rights) ST: Goode, Schum (exclusive rights) That's a lot of ground to cover with draft picks, $30 mil in cap, and "development" among the 39 already under contract while trying to improve the defense. Of course there's a possibility of a big ticket negotiation. Matthews is a guy often mentioned in these pages. If someone mentions that in response I might comment on how that's easier said than done. On the subject of a semi-shutdown corner replacement for Shields, a guy that can play one-on-one against #2 receivers and many #1's while getting burned with tolerable frequency, consider the 20th. ranked CB in average salary for 2016: Kareem Jackson, 4 years, $34 mil, average cap $8.5 mil. That doesn't leave a lot for everything else in terms of replacing (or re-signing) the value represented in the Packer free agents while also improving the defense. I guess I have to say what I said the last 2 years: Thompson needs one helluva draft. Postscript: The Packers were confident enough that Taylor could do an adequate job that they took the opportunity to save cap for 2017 in cutting Sitton. Is it not obvious now, with these numbers, cap was a factor in the decision? [/QUOTE]
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