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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 554214" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p>First things first: This is the first draft in which Ted Thompson did not make a single trade. I’m not sure what it means, if anything, I just thought that was interesting.</p><p></p><p>As to the picks I think <strong>Clinton-Dix</strong> was an obvious choice of value matching need. I don’t think there is any question safety play will be improved significantly. If he ends up being the best or second-best safety in the draft, this will be seen as a good pick. Thompson’s record picking WRs in the second round speaks for itself. <strong>Adams</strong> is not fast but if he were, he wouldn’t have been there at #53. Brian Gutekunst (Packers Director of College Scouting) said he’s “strong at the point of the ball and strong after the catch”. If his reputation for having great hands is true, any problems getting separation have a great chance of being “cured” by having one of the most accurate passers in the NFL throwing the ball to him. If captainWIMM is right and <strong>Thornton</strong> is too easily blocked at the POA by a single blocker, this will be a wasted pick. I think <em>they</em> think he has quick feet for a 300+ pounder. In the presser Gutekunst described him as having “so much twitch and upside” and said he’s a 312 pounder who ran a 4.9. Another Mike Daniels (re: quick twitch)?</p><p></p><p><strong>Rodgers</strong> may be the most controversial pick and IMO the most difficult to evaluate because of his change of weight and positions at Cal. Gutekunst said he is "one of the best ball skill guys in the draft. He catches it really, really well”. So the Packers think both Adams and Rodgers are very good to excellent “hand catchers”. I jumped the gun with <strong>Bradford</strong> writing he’d be slotted at ILB. (I think I did the same with Hyde and safety after last draft.) If he can effectively rush the passer from the outside, there’ll obviously be a place for him. If he can turn into a taller Chris Borland at ILB that’d be fantastic, but if they don’t start playing him at ILB right away – and it looks like they won’t - he likely won’t play there as a rookie. Interesting that Thompson picked a college OC in <strong>Linsley</strong>. He’s a life-long Packers fan, <em>that can’t hurt</em>. He’ll have to play OG too to make the active roster if he doesn’t start at OC. I heard/read someone say he’s about the size of EDS, which isn’t ideal.</p><p></p><p>As a life-long Badgers fan and alum, I can’t be objective about <strong>Abbrederis</strong>. I obviously loved him as a Badger and love his story as a walk-on. I hope the way he schooled first round CB Roby portends well for his NFL career. I was surprised they picked a 25-year old at any position, but <strong>Goodson</strong>’s size and ball skills were attractive enough to overcome it. Still, a raw 25-year old better get over being raw pretty quick. From what little I’ve read about him, my guess is it will be <strong>Janis</strong>’ hands that will decide his NFL fate.</p><p>- - - -</p><p></p><p>I continue to get a kick out of fans thinking they know which pick(s) is a reach and which isn’t. As I mentioned in another thread, there are very, very few players who "slip under the radar" in today’s NFL. Even players from small schools are well-known among scouting services and NFL teams. So when Thompson, or any other GM, makes a pick that appears to be a reach it may not be because teams picking after the pick in question and before the team's next pick may be interested in that player. Other teams certainly will know about that player.</p><p></p><p>And here’s the crux of it IMO: Fans are handicapped by: 1) Not having the coach’s tape available. That is crucial in evaluating some positions. Even if you watched all the games of a particular player, if you watched on TV, you missed a lot. 2) Access to prospects. Scouts and GMs like Thompson see prospects in person. Not only in games but in senior bowl and other all-star game practices. They have access to the player’s coaches. And they have the chance to sit down with players one-on-one. 3) Time. How many of you have the time to fully evaluate prospects? If you work for a living (not as an NFL scout), even if you had access to all the information and players the professionals do, you just don’t have the time to match what they do. 4) Expertise. How many of you have spent your lives working day-to-day for an NFL team, even for a year or two? How many know NFL schemes from the inside? How many have been trained by someone like Ted Thompson?</p><p></p><p>I understand when the consensus of "experts" has a player ranked at 20th at his position and the Packers make him the 10th player picked at his position, fans get upset. Don’t get me wrong: I'm certainly not saying reaches don't happen. What I am saying is we as fans - even the most dedicated draftnik - should keep in mind generally we just don't know enough to accurately identify them. And there is no way of proving a pick was a reach because it would require a lot of GMs to declare their intentions while hooked up to a lie detector. So IMO when fans say or type, ‘they could have gotten ___ later in the draft’, there’s just no way for them to know that.</p><p></p><p>One thing is certain: Early first rounders can bust and incredible gems can be found at the end of the draft. That should provide at least a bit of humility to GMs, professional scouts, media "experts", and particularly to draftniks who just don't have the information, time, or expertise the first two groups do. Playing GM is fun and questioning what your team’s GM does is a part of being a fan. But IMO no fan can definitively say the pick of so-and-so was a reach.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 554214, member: 4300"] First things first: This is the first draft in which Ted Thompson did not make a single trade. I’m not sure what it means, if anything, I just thought that was interesting. As to the picks I think [B]Clinton-Dix[/B] was an obvious choice of value matching need. I don’t think there is any question safety play will be improved significantly. If he ends up being the best or second-best safety in the draft, this will be seen as a good pick. Thompson’s record picking WRs in the second round speaks for itself. [B]Adams[/B] is not fast but if he were, he wouldn’t have been there at #53. Brian Gutekunst (Packers Director of College Scouting) said he’s “strong at the point of the ball and strong after the catch”. If his reputation for having great hands is true, any problems getting separation have a great chance of being “cured” by having one of the most accurate passers in the NFL throwing the ball to him. If captainWIMM is right and [B]Thornton[/B] is too easily blocked at the POA by a single blocker, this will be a wasted pick. I think [I]they[/I] think he has quick feet for a 300+ pounder. In the presser Gutekunst described him as having “so much twitch and upside” and said he’s a 312 pounder who ran a 4.9. Another Mike Daniels (re: quick twitch)? [B]Rodgers[/B] may be the most controversial pick and IMO the most difficult to evaluate because of his change of weight and positions at Cal. Gutekunst said he is "one of the best ball skill guys in the draft. He catches it really, really well”. So the Packers think both Adams and Rodgers are very good to excellent “hand catchers”. I jumped the gun with [B]Bradford[/B] writing he’d be slotted at ILB. (I think I did the same with Hyde and safety after last draft.) If he can effectively rush the passer from the outside, there’ll obviously be a place for him. If he can turn into a taller Chris Borland at ILB that’d be fantastic, but if they don’t start playing him at ILB right away – and it looks like they won’t - he likely won’t play there as a rookie. Interesting that Thompson picked a college OC in [B]Linsley[/B]. He’s a life-long Packers fan, [I]that can’t hurt[/I]. He’ll have to play OG too to make the active roster if he doesn’t start at OC. I heard/read someone say he’s about the size of EDS, which isn’t ideal. As a life-long Badgers fan and alum, I can’t be objective about [B]Abbrederis[/B]. I obviously loved him as a Badger and love his story as a walk-on. I hope the way he schooled first round CB Roby portends well for his NFL career. I was surprised they picked a 25-year old at any position, but [B]Goodson[/B]’s size and ball skills were attractive enough to overcome it. Still, a raw 25-year old better get over being raw pretty quick. From what little I’ve read about him, my guess is it will be [B]Janis[/B]’ hands that will decide his NFL fate. - - - - I continue to get a kick out of fans thinking they know which pick(s) is a reach and which isn’t. As I mentioned in another thread, there are very, very few players who "slip under the radar" in today’s NFL. Even players from small schools are well-known among scouting services and NFL teams. So when Thompson, or any other GM, makes a pick that appears to be a reach it may not be because teams picking after the pick in question and before the team's next pick may be interested in that player. Other teams certainly will know about that player. And here’s the crux of it IMO: Fans are handicapped by: 1) Not having the coach’s tape available. That is crucial in evaluating some positions. Even if you watched all the games of a particular player, if you watched on TV, you missed a lot. 2) Access to prospects. Scouts and GMs like Thompson see prospects in person. Not only in games but in senior bowl and other all-star game practices. They have access to the player’s coaches. And they have the chance to sit down with players one-on-one. 3) Time. How many of you have the time to fully evaluate prospects? If you work for a living (not as an NFL scout), even if you had access to all the information and players the professionals do, you just don’t have the time to match what they do. 4) Expertise. How many of you have spent your lives working day-to-day for an NFL team, even for a year or two? How many know NFL schemes from the inside? How many have been trained by someone like Ted Thompson? I understand when the consensus of "experts" has a player ranked at 20th at his position and the Packers make him the 10th player picked at his position, fans get upset. Don’t get me wrong: I'm certainly not saying reaches don't happen. What I am saying is we as fans - even the most dedicated draftnik - should keep in mind generally we just don't know enough to accurately identify them. And there is no way of proving a pick was a reach because it would require a lot of GMs to declare their intentions while hooked up to a lie detector. So IMO when fans say or type, ‘they could have gotten ___ later in the draft’, there’s just no way for them to know that. One thing is certain: Early first rounders can bust and incredible gems can be found at the end of the draft. That should provide at least a bit of humility to GMs, professional scouts, media "experts", and particularly to draftniks who just don't have the information, time, or expertise the first two groups do. Playing GM is fun and questioning what your team’s GM does is a part of being a fan. But IMO no fan can definitively say the pick of so-and-so was a reach. [/QUOTE]
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