WR1....what does that HAVE to mean or what MIGHT it mean for 2022?

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
Red zone scoring, TD's only:
2018 -- 14th @ 61%
2019 -- 2nd @ 68%. [The previous years 61% would have been top 10]
2020 -- FIRST @ 77%
2021 -- 18th @ 58%. [first place was 66%]

Majority of teams reach the end zone about 1/2 --> 2/3 time. I don't know if this stat is just 1st downs in red zones or a FG at fourth and 3 at the 19 which means they reached the red zone on a third down play.
Thanks for the stats Poppa. They are a much better RZ team than I thought. There's probably some bias in my outlook - first and goal from the 8 against TB in the NFCCG, and a few others. But the stats don't lie.

And I'm amazed that there were 18 teams with a conversion rate between 58 and 66&.
 
OP
OP
tynimiller

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
8,986
Reaction score
2,103
Thanks for the stats Poppa. They are a much better RZ team than I thought. There's probably some bias in my outlook - first and goal from the 8 against TB in the NFCCG, and a few others. But the stats don't lie.

And I'm amazed that there were 18 teams with a conversion rate between 58 and 66&.

Honestly it is why if you have a defense that starts stopping offenses in the red zone more than fifty percent of the time you probably got a stout defense
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
Honestly it is why if you have a defense that starts stopping offenses in the red zone more than fifty percent of the time you probably got a stout defense
And the defense helps win games. That will be an interesting stat to watch this year, given the defense the Packers have. Certainly Walker and Campbell will help stopping the run game. And the secondary is close to being the best in the league.
 
OP
OP
tynimiller

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
8,986
Reaction score
2,103
And the defense helps win games. That will be an interesting stat to watch this year, given the defense the Packers have. Certainly Walker and Campbell will help stopping the run game. And the secondary is close to being the best in the league.

Honestly depending on the team I could see in tighter quarters is when Barnes might get the call to come in. Walker I see excelling more when field is more open especially early - Barnes could read and play in box much better while Walker transitions to NFL
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
Honestly depending on the team I could see in tighter quarters is when Barnes might get the call to come in. Walker I see excelling more when field is more open especially early - Barnes could read and play in box much better while Walker transitions to NFL
Good point. Lucky to have some depth at that position. There's already talk of playing Walker on the edge because of his athleticism.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
8,587
Reaction score
2,189
Well, if the Packers had arguably the three best wide receivers on their roster none of them would put up numbers comparable to what they did last season (or in Hopkins' case the four seasons before last year). Adams would have benefitted of another receiver good enough for opponents not being able to cover him with at least two defensive backs on most plays.



I have absolutely no idea how you came up with me believing Watson will fail in the NFL :rolleyes:

You need to consider he was covered by FCS cornerbacks when taking a look at his highlights though.
Sure. We need to take into account full spectrum. We also shouldn’t repeatedly use just 1 or 2 repeated variables of his entire portfolio.

Concerning your continually beating this Div1-FCS thing to a pulp. You do realize the NFL’s All-Time Champion WR played FCS level football don’t you?
 

captainWIMM

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 23, 2012
Messages
27,376
Reaction score
2,277
Yardage is certainly important. But I think the number of TDs is the most relevant metric. Didn't Tonyan score 11 TDs in 2020? I don't remember his yardage.

In my opinion both yardage and touchdowns are an important number to look at. Mostly players don't put up impressive numbers in one category without excelling in the other area.

They also need Rodgers because it seems he has been less than stellar inside the 20.

Since MLF took over, Rodgers has thrown the most touchdown passes in the red zone in the league with 82.

We also shouldn’t repeatedly use just 1 or 2 repeated variables of his entire portfolio.

Concerning your continually beating this Div1-FCS thing to a pulp. You do realize the NFL’s All-Time Champion WR played FCS level football don’t you?

I wouldn't have to repeat myself if you would just be able to acknowledge that Watson mostly playing against cornerbacks who will never come close to playing in the NFL should be taken into consideration.

Once again, that doesn't say anything about his chances of succeeding in the NFL though.
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
In my opinion both yardage and touchdowns are an important number to look at. Mostly players don't put up impressive numbers in one category without excelling in the other area.



Since MLF took over, Rodgers has thrown the most touchdown passes in the red zone in the league with 82.



I wouldn't have to repeat myself if you would just be able to acknowledge that Watson mostly playing against cornerbacks who will never come close to playing in the NFL should be taken into consideration.

Once again, that doesn't say anything about his chances of succeeding in the NFL though.
Wow that's an interesting stat on Rodgers production in the red zone in the 3 years MLF has been coached. I never would have guessed 82 TDs. Something to keep in mind when GB's red zone performance is criticized.

And yeah, there's gonna be a strong correlation between yardage gained and points scored for a player. I don't have any evidence for it, but some guys just seem to know how to operate in the red zone better than others, and so score more points. It's certainly a short field. This is where a guy like Adams will be missed. He just knew how to get open very quickly.
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
I’ll start by saying I would have loved to have Adams stay(not at anything over about $23-24M area tops). I know I know, you’ll give me all examples of teams jumping off a bridge at WR. I’m not going to jump with them just because they are idiots.

It’s just my opinion, but factoring in risk of lots of eggs in 1 basket and the age of the those eggs is a significant factor. Older players seem to take longer to heal and re-injure more. Not to mention the surprise retirements etc..

If you gave me a choice. A 1500 yard receiver and then a bunch of 500 yard guys
OR
3 guys (1-900 ,1-775, 1-650 yards, plus a couple 400-500 yard guys) getting a more equal share of targets? I’ll take the latter.

I feel like one of the reasons we stalled last year was our reliance on #17 and teams began to game plan him. In contrast, when you have 6 guys all over 500 yards (including RB, TE, WR etc) you are much less predictable. We were predictable in that Divisional and Adams barely broke 90 yards.

There’s little to zero question in my mind that we don’t have at least several guys capable of getting it done in receiving yards.
Yeah I think you're right. And that's why there is no sense of panic coming out of GB re: the WR/TE groups. I hope Tonyan gets back earlier than expected. I wish they had an upcoming receiver-type TE but there weren't any available in the draft. Anyway, the passing game will be fine.

And it may have to do with the strength of the rest of the team, especially the defense.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
8,587
Reaction score
2,189
Sure. We need to take into account full spectrum.
This is post #32 in response to you saying we should take into consideration things such as Watson’s level of competition.
I wouldn't have to repeat myself if you would just be able to acknowledge that Watson mostly playing against cornerbacks who will never come close to playing in the NFL should be taken into consideration.
This is your Post #33 response to me agreeing.

So I actually agreed with you. When you offer a suggestion an I responded “sure.”
That doesn’t mean I disagreed or ignored you. I just meant that yes, FCS play is 1 variable (pause…) Other variables should be part of his portfolio also.
 
Last edited:

texaspackerbacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Dec 8, 2004
Messages
384
Reaction score
27
We oughta have a poll asking who someone thinks will be the Packers top WR this year or maybe ranking the top 5 or 6 or 7 or 8. For the first time in a lot of years, there could justifiably be a lot of answers.

I'll go with Watson as #1. I'll rank Lazard as second followed in order by Doubs, Watkins, Cobb, Toure, Amari, Taylor.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
8,587
Reaction score
2,189
We oughta have a poll asking who someone thinks will be the Packers top WR this year or maybe ranking the top 5 or 6 or 7 or 8. For the first time in a lot of years, there could justifiably be a lot of answers.

I'll go with Watson as #1. I'll rank Lazard as second followed in order by Doubs, Watkins, Cobb, Toure, Amari, Taylor.
That’s a tough one. I think Rodgers will break out of his normal shell and throw regular to Watson, even though he’s a Rookie.

Much will be determined by who wins the starting Lineup. I think it will be Between Lazard, Watson and Watkins
I think early odds are Watson partly he’s going to Field a good YPC figure. He’d only need 50 catches to get into that 800-900 yard neighborhood. That’s a very realistic possibility.

Watkins injury history kinda Knocks him into Lazard territory. It’s a tossup there.

Now watch Samorie Toure rock it.
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
That’s a tough one. I think Rodgers will break out of his normal shell and throw regular to Watson, even though he’s a Rookie.

Much will be determined by who wins the starting Lineup. I think it will be Between Lazard, Watson and Watkins
I think early odds are Watson partly he’s going to Field a good YPC figure. He’d only need 50 catches to get into that 800-900 yard neighborhood. That’s a very realistic possibility.

Watkins injury history kinda Knocks him into Lazard territory. It’s a tossup there.

Now watch Samorie Toure rock it.
Well this race needs to be handicapped. As far as who will be the most productive receiver (yardage, TDs), I'll go with Watkins. Best long shot? Romeo. If Watson can shake the drops he could be a factor, but I'm leery of rookie WRs. That said, Watson has NFL speed. Now he needs to learn routes, consistently catch, and keep Mr. Rodgers smiling.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
8,587
Reaction score
2,189
Well this race needs to be handicapped. As far as who will be the most productive receiver (yardage, TDs), I'll go with Watkins. Best long shot? Romeo. If Watson can shake the drops he could be a factor, but I'm leery of rookie WRs. That said, Watson has NFL speed. Now he needs to learn routes, consistently catch, and keep Mr. Rodgers smiling.
Yes I agree. The most logical answer is Sammy. He’s voted “most to prove”.
He’s one of the most athletic.
He’s one the most NFL experienced.
He seems genuinely happy to have this opportunity.
 

captainWIMM

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 23, 2012
Messages
27,376
Reaction score
2,277
We oughta have a poll asking who someone thinks will be the Packers top WR this year or maybe ranking the top 5 or 6 or 7 or 8. For the first time in a lot of years, there could justifiably be a lot of answers.

I'll go with Watson as #1. I'll rank Lazard as second followed in order by Doubs, Watkins, Cobb, Toure, Amari, Taylor.

My guess is Watkins will end up being the #1 receiver. Lazard #2, Watson #3, Cobb #4, Doubs #5, Rodgers #6.
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
If that's our wide receiver group for this season, we're not going anywhere.
The answer to that really depends on their production. If Rodgers throws for 4,000 yards and 35 or more TDs, the team will be fine.
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
Yes. Normally it’s:
WR1
WR3
WR4, WR4
WR5,
WR6

Now it’s:

WR?
WR??
WR3, WR3, WR???
WR????
WR?????
Good point. Even if they add Julio Jones, or OBJ later in the season, it's a crap shoot at WR this year. I'm more interested in Rodgers' production for the regular season. If he throws for 4,000 yards again and 35 plus TDs, the team will win a lot of games and it won't matter much who catches the ball.
 

SudsMcBucky

Cheesehead
Joined
May 17, 2022
Messages
22
Reaction score
8
Good point. Even if they add Julio Jones, or OBJ later in the season, it's a crap shoot at WR this year. I'm more interested in Rodgers' production for the regular season. If he throws for 4,000 yards again and 35 plus TDs, the team will win a lot of games and it won't matter much who catches the ball.
There is no way I want OBJ on this team. The earliest he'd be ready is probably the last game or 2 of the regular season. He just would be too late into the system to be anything for the playoffs. No thanks. If you're going to go one of those routes, I'd rather take my chances on Julio staying healthy for most of the season than OBJ now coming off 2 ACL's.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
8,587
Reaction score
2,189
Good point. Even if they add Julio Jones, or OBJ later in the season, it's a crap shoot at WR this year. I'm more interested in Rodgers' production for the regular season. If he throws for 4,000 yards again and 35 plus TDs, the team will win a lot of games and it won't matter much who catches the ball.
Yes. I know this might not be comforting to some fans, but with this island of “misfit” WR’s (being sarcastic). Somehow, I still see lots of boys n girls having a splendid Christmas season watching football. :)
 

Heyjoe4

Cheesehead
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Messages
3,698
Reaction score
559
There is no way I want OBJ on this team. The earliest he'd be ready is probably the last game or 2 of the regular season. He just would be too late into the system to be anything for the playoffs. No thanks. If you're going to go one of those routes, I'd rather take my chances on Julio staying healthy for most of the season than OBJ now coming off 2 ACL's.
Oh I agree with you. He's just a last chance option late in the season. I'd rather not have him on the team or in the locker room. Very talented guy, but a head case.
 

Poppa San

Love her or leave her. Either way is expensive.
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Aug 29, 2010
Messages
11,319
Reaction score
1,550
Location
Brown County Wisconsin
I'll play.
1. Lazard
2. Watson
3. Doubs
4. Cobb
5. Watkins
6. Rodgers
Me too.
By Yards:
Doubs
Lazard
Watson
Rodgers
Watkins
Those guys on the roster not listed sum total
Cobb

By receptions:
Lazard
Rodgers
Watkins
Doubs
Watson
Cobb
The other guys
 

Members online

Top