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Message: <blockquote data-quote="PackFan2" data-source="post: 905983" data-attributes="member: 10749">It was a good read. Basically, draft picks after 100 pick, on average is a boom or bust. Either you get a relatively good player that plays a decent amount of games for you or barely any games. Picks 1- 100 are generally "safer" picks that should garner more weight.For example the coefficient of variation graph they show, the black line is the predicted regression line. You see picks 1 - 100, they're close to that predicted regression line. Hence, you sorta know what you're going to get. After picks 100, on average, it becomes less predictable with highs and lows (more variability).The issue here is that it's taking into account ALL averages (regardless of position). If we break it down and aggregate it by position the variability does change.<a href="https://greg-hart.medium.com/analyzing-nfl-draft-positions-by-av-663a2633fc04" target="_blank">https://greg-hart.medium.com/analyzing-nfl-draft-positions-by-av-663a2633fc04</a>^The article by Hart does a better job. It allows us not to just see the averages but also lets us see the outliers by rounds.</blockquote>

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