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Draft Talk
With their 1st Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Packers select...
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 772741"><p>That's a highly unlikely hypothetical on it's face. And as you observed, NE is not going to tell anybody they think a guy available at #14 is worth a #1.</p><p></p><p>I don't think anybody believes <strong>every</strong> trade is executed at the values dictated by the chart. There are of course examples to the contrary. But where you typically see "overpaying" by a substantial amount are at the top of the first round. The Jets, as discussed earlier, is an example. The Bills trade up for Sammy Watkins, is one that sticks in my mind. I'm sure there are others that can be cited. You can also get a better deal if you're willing to take a next year pick, even if the final value of that pick is uncertain, which was the case in both the Jets and Watkins trades.</p><p></p><p>The purpose of the chart is to provide a ballpark estimate of an all-things-being-equal situation which is the point around which most trades cluster. It's a question of what is likely to happen, not what will happen, in an area where we operate with incomplete information.</p><p></p><p>If Josh Rosen, for example, drops to #14 then the Packers might stand to make a pretty good deal if they so choose. But that's not likely to happen.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 772741"] That's a highly unlikely hypothetical on it's face. And as you observed, NE is not going to tell anybody they think a guy available at #14 is worth a #1. I don't think anybody believes [B]every[/B] trade is executed at the values dictated by the chart. There are of course examples to the contrary. But where you typically see "overpaying" by a substantial amount are at the top of the first round. The Jets, as discussed earlier, is an example. The Bills trade up for Sammy Watkins, is one that sticks in my mind. I'm sure there are others that can be cited. You can also get a better deal if you're willing to take a next year pick, even if the final value of that pick is uncertain, which was the case in both the Jets and Watkins trades. The purpose of the chart is to provide a ballpark estimate of an all-things-being-equal situation which is the point around which most trades cluster. It's a question of what is likely to happen, not what will happen, in an area where we operate with incomplete information. If Josh Rosen, for example, drops to #14 then the Packers might stand to make a pretty good deal if they so choose. But that's not likely to happen. [/QUOTE]
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