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With their 1st Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Packers select...
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 771148" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>Of course Gutekunst is his own man, but given that he was a Ron Wolf hire, scouted for three years under Wolf, and then worked for Thompson for 13 years, perhaps history can be instructive in pointing us towards certain prospects at #14 and away from others. Between Wolf and Thompson, we have a sample of 24 first round picks:</p><p></p><p>1991: Vinnie Clark, CB, Ohio State</p><p>1992: Terrell Buckley, CB, Florida State</p><p>1993: Wayne Simmons, LB, Clemson; George Teague, S, Alabama</p><p>1994: Aaron Taylor, G, Notre Dame</p><p>1995: Craig Newsome, CB, Arizona State</p><p>1996: John Michels, OT, USC</p><p>1997: Ross Verba, OT, Iowa</p><p>1998: Vonnie Holiday, ED, UNC</p><p>1999: Antuan Edwards, CB, Clemson</p><p>2000: Bubba Franks, TE, Miami</p><p>2001: Jamal Reynolds, ED, Florida State</p><p></p><p>2005: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal</p><p>2006: A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State</p><p>2007: Justin Harrell, iDL, Tennessee</p><p>2008: N/A</p><p>2009: B.J. Raji, iDL, Boston College; Clay Matthews, ED, USC</p><p>2010: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa</p><p>2011: Derek Sherrod, OT, Miss. State</p><p>2012: Nick Perry, ED, USC</p><p>2013: Datone Jones, iDL, UCLA</p><p>2014: Haha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama</p><p>2015: Damarious Randall, CB, Arizona State</p><p>2016: Kenny Clark, iDL, UCLA</p><p>2017: N/A</p><p></p><p>So out of the 24 player sample, we see:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">QB, 1: Obviously this is impacted by having Favre and then Rodgers and not needing another.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">RB, 0: Even if you include the Sherman era, the Packers haven't taken a RB in round 1 since 1987.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">WR, 0: Sherman took Javon Walker in round 1 in 2002, but neither Wolf nor Thompson ever took one.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">TE, 1: Only one since 1991 and that was 18 years ago.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">OT, 4: Two apiece for Wolf and Thompson.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">G, 1: Wolf took one, 24 years ago.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">C, 0</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">iDL, 4: These were all TT; Wolf never took one.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">ED, 4: Two apiece for each guy.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">LB, 2: One apiece for each guy.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">CB, 5: 4 of these were Wolf.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">S, 2: 1 apiece for each guy.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">ST, 0: They're not Al Davis. </li> </ul><p>So... if (and I do mean if) Gutekunst follows in the philosophy of his hiring GM and the guy he worked for for 13 years, it would seem really unlikely that he will take a QB, RB, WR, TE, or iOL at #14. It is almost as unlikely that he will take a LB or S. He would be most likely to take an OT, iDL, ED, or CB. </p><p></p><p>Here are the top 30 or so players in this class with the likely prospects in green, the less likely in orange, and the least likely in red:</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">Q. Nelson, G, ND</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">S. Barkley, RB, PSU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">B. Chubb, ED, NCSU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">S. Darnold, QB, USC</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff8000">D. James, S, FSU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">D. Ward, CB, OSU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff8000">T. Edmunds, LB, VTU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff8000">R. Smith, LB, UGA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #5900b3">M. Fitzpatrick, DB, UA*</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">H. Landry, ED, BC</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">J. Rosen, QB, UCLA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">B. Mayfield, QB, OK</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">J. Jackson, CB, IOWA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">C. Ridley, WR, UA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">M. Hurst, iDL, UM</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">D. Guice, RB, LSU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">D. Payne, iDL, UA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">V. Vea, iDL, UW</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">L. Jackson, QB, LOU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">J. Allen, QB, WYO</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff8000">L. Vander Esch, LB, BSU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">M. McGlinchey, OT, ND</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">C. Williams, OT, UT</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">I. Wynn, iOL, UGA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">W. Hernandez, iOL, UTEP</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #00b300">M. Davenport, ED, UTSA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">C. Sutton, WR, SMU</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff8000">R. Harrison, S, UA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">S. Michel, RB, UGA</span></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol"><span style="color: #ff0000">R. Jones, RB, USC</span></li> </ol><p><span style="color: #5900b3">*Fitzpatrick kind of depends on whether they view him primarily as a corner or safety</span></p><p><span style="color: #5900b3"></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">To reiterate-- Gutekunst is not by any way bound to these patterns and if this little study happened to cast an "unlikely" light on your favorite prospect(s), I'm not trying to rule that guy out for the Packers. But I do think it's more probable than not that Gute will follow some of these patterns, and I'm sure he will also make his own mark (as Wolf and TT were not identical by any means). </span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000">If he does follow in his predecessors' footsteps, Landry and Jackson strike me as the most probable targets at #14 as they are "green" positions and also stand a decent chance of being there when they pick. </span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 771148, member: 12283"] Of course Gutekunst is his own man, but given that he was a Ron Wolf hire, scouted for three years under Wolf, and then worked for Thompson for 13 years, perhaps history can be instructive in pointing us towards certain prospects at #14 and away from others. Between Wolf and Thompson, we have a sample of 24 first round picks: 1991: Vinnie Clark, CB, Ohio State 1992: Terrell Buckley, CB, Florida State 1993: Wayne Simmons, LB, Clemson; George Teague, S, Alabama 1994: Aaron Taylor, G, Notre Dame 1995: Craig Newsome, CB, Arizona State 1996: John Michels, OT, USC 1997: Ross Verba, OT, Iowa 1998: Vonnie Holiday, ED, UNC 1999: Antuan Edwards, CB, Clemson 2000: Bubba Franks, TE, Miami 2001: Jamal Reynolds, ED, Florida State 2005: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal 2006: A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State 2007: Justin Harrell, iDL, Tennessee 2008: N/A 2009: B.J. Raji, iDL, Boston College; Clay Matthews, ED, USC 2010: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa 2011: Derek Sherrod, OT, Miss. State 2012: Nick Perry, ED, USC 2013: Datone Jones, iDL, UCLA 2014: Haha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama 2015: Damarious Randall, CB, Arizona State 2016: Kenny Clark, iDL, UCLA 2017: N/A So out of the 24 player sample, we see: [LIST] [*]QB, 1: Obviously this is impacted by having Favre and then Rodgers and not needing another. [*]RB, 0: Even if you include the Sherman era, the Packers haven't taken a RB in round 1 since 1987. [*]WR, 0: Sherman took Javon Walker in round 1 in 2002, but neither Wolf nor Thompson ever took one. [*]TE, 1: Only one since 1991 and that was 18 years ago. [*]OT, 4: Two apiece for Wolf and Thompson. [*]G, 1: Wolf took one, 24 years ago. [*]C, 0 [*]iDL, 4: These were all TT; Wolf never took one. [*]ED, 4: Two apiece for each guy. [*]LB, 2: One apiece for each guy. [*]CB, 5: 4 of these were Wolf. [*]S, 2: 1 apiece for each guy. [*]ST, 0: They're not Al Davis. [/LIST] So... if (and I do mean if) Gutekunst follows in the philosophy of his hiring GM and the guy he worked for for 13 years, it would seem really unlikely that he will take a QB, RB, WR, TE, or iOL at #14. It is almost as unlikely that he will take a LB or S. He would be most likely to take an OT, iDL, ED, or CB. Here are the top 30 or so players in this class with the likely prospects in green, the less likely in orange, and the least likely in red: [LIST=1] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]Q. Nelson, G, ND[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]S. Barkley, RB, PSU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]B. Chubb, ED, NCSU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]S. Darnold, QB, USC[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff8000]D. James, S, FSU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]D. Ward, CB, OSU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff8000]T. Edmunds, LB, VTU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff8000]R. Smith, LB, UGA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#5900b3]M. Fitzpatrick, DB, UA*[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]H. Landry, ED, BC[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]J. Rosen, QB, UCLA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]B. Mayfield, QB, OK[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]J. Jackson, CB, IOWA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]C. Ridley, WR, UA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]M. Hurst, iDL, UM[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]D. Guice, RB, LSU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]D. Payne, iDL, UA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]V. Vea, iDL, UW[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]L. Jackson, QB, LOU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]J. Allen, QB, WYO[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff8000]L. Vander Esch, LB, BSU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]M. McGlinchey, OT, ND[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]C. Williams, OT, UT[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]I. Wynn, iOL, UGA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]W. Hernandez, iOL, UTEP[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#00b300]M. Davenport, ED, UTSA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]C. Sutton, WR, SMU[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff8000]R. Harrison, S, UA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]S. Michel, RB, UGA[/COLOR] [*][COLOR=#ff0000]R. Jones, RB, USC[/COLOR] [/LIST] [COLOR=#5900b3]*Fitzpatrick kind of depends on whether they view him primarily as a corner or safety [/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000]To reiterate-- Gutekunst is not by any way bound to these patterns and if this little study happened to cast an "unlikely" light on your favorite prospect(s), I'm not trying to rule that guy out for the Packers. But I do think it's more probable than not that Gute will follow some of these patterns, and I'm sure he will also make his own mark (as Wolf and TT were not identical by any means). If he does follow in his predecessors' footsteps, Landry and Jackson strike me as the most probable targets at #14 as they are "green" positions and also stand a decent chance of being there when they pick. [/COLOR] [/QUOTE]
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With their 1st Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft the Packers select...
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