Will Defense improve enough?

[Vltrophy]

WE NEED BETTER TACKLING !!! DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS !!!

Last yr our tackling sucked. Just look at the Bucs game where 6 guys couldn't tackle Blount. That was embarrassing. Then to see it on ESPN about 10 times. I kept changing the ch after about the 3rd time. Don't push'm down. Tackle tackle tackle.

 

[Vltrophy]

I see there are a number of threads on individual positions in the defense. But I would like you guys to give me your opinions on the overall state of the new defense. I know this may be premature before camp opens.

But I got to thinking about SF and how strong they look on both sides of the ball. Will our defense be improved enough to match theirs?

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they're stronger on D. Yes their O-line is good but Alex can't throw or place the ball like Rodgers. Alex's avg for TDs per game last year was exactly 1,spot on. Not to mention Rodgers will have a chip on his shoulder as he wanted & expected to be drafted by the 9ers. Final score 31-14 GB

 

[757Niner]

I only answered point by point what you posted. Not in any way struck a nerve. If a fan of another team comes here and argues against fans of the Packers it should be grounded in truth. I just pointed out the flaws in your examples. As a general idea I agree a team wants to be balanced in all phases. That isn't always possible however and said team would do well to use the strengths of the team as it is. No sense trying to be a running team when you don't have an O-line or RB to make it so right? So I agree that you don't have to be an offensive juggernaut to win these days in the NFL, your 9ers proved that last year, but it doesn't hurt and it's not a hindrance to success.
I also argue that luck doesn't have as much to do with it as you suppose. Good teams are good teams for awhile. You don't see the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers, Packers and Saints are consistently good teams? There are up and down years but it's not as fickle as luck. Though I agree there is SOME element of luck involved.
You seem to be a pretty good chap so I'll also admit it's nice to see a once proud franchise like the 9ers turned around. They were spectacular back in the day.

I wasn't arguing against Packer fans, I was arguing against the stance that the article took. It just so happened to be a Packer fan who posted the link but my point of view wasn't tied to any argument a Packer fan tried to make. There is no truth in opinion, only conviction. Absolutely a team should play to its strength, which is excatly what I was referring to in the initial post you quoted. You do whatever needs to be done to secure victory. That, I never argued against.

 

[FrankRizzo]

IMO FrankRizzo is overstating the role of luck as it relates to the sustained success the Packers have experienced under Thompson’s leadership.......

Of course the Packers can’t dictate which players other teams pick but the drafting of Aaron Rodgers was more preparation than luck. I say that because Thompson was acting on .......

The irony for me is this same poster predicts a perfect record for the Packers in 2012. If he believes “so much luck (is) involved”, did he forget that the team playing the “lucky” team is experiencing “bad luck”? Is luck such a big factor it’s not funny, or not? A corollary to the “luck” quote above is “luck is a loser’s excuse to a winner’s opportunity” or more bluntly, “luck is a losers excuse”.

I am not saying sustained success is due to luck. But the difference between the 2010 post-season and 2011 post-season clearly shows that there's plenty of luck that is a factor in who ends up the champion.

We had some very fortunate breaks in the 2010 post-season as well as week 16 & 17 to qualify, and things that were 100% out of our control.

Last year, the Giants had those breaks go their way. Not only the rare fumbles, drops, and death in the team family versus us, but they had the same guy fumble twice late in the NFC Championship game at San Francisco.

And in 2009, the Saints were totally outplayed by Minnesota in that NFC Championship game, but the Vikings fumbled snaps, handoffs, some key bad calls against the Vikings, and still the Vikings probably would have won had they not huddled with 12 men coming out of a timeout, and then Farve did what he always does late in big playoff games.

They are not excuses. They are breaks. Some bounce your way, some don't. To pretend they don't make a significant difference at times is naive.

Also, Teddy pulled the trigger on Rodgers. But it was lucky that he slid that far. As Belichick has said about getting Brady in the end of round 6, it was very lucky because had they known he was anywhere near that good, they wouldn't have sat there and waited so long to take him.
Teddy did not trade up to get Rodgers. He did do that for Clay Matthews though, which makes that pick all the more impressive in my opinion.
The Matthews move/pick was genius with no luck. The Rodgers pick in his lap had some luck there.
It was the same as Randy Moss sliding into Ron Wolf's lap in the 1998 draft, but Wolf chickened out whereas Thompson had the steel ballz. That part isn't luck of course, but the premium talent sliding that far is.

 

[I_am_smoked_cheddar]

Teddy ? Teddy ? Are you playing golf with him and not telling us Frank ? Can you get any Free tickets ? What about free jerseys ? I wear an XL.

 

[TJV]

One definition of “naïve” is “showing a lack of sophistication and subtlety or of critical judgment and analysis”, so IMO the person who emphasizes luck is naïve as that is much easier than providing in-depth analysis. For example, the Giants forced TOs against a team usually very good at protecting the ball and then force “the same guy (to) fumble twice” in the NFC championship game but that’s counted as “luck”? Luck does play a part. For example a team which stays unusually healthy can be viewed as lucky but IMO you are missing the big picture. For example if Thompson is picking at the end of the first round in the future and a player is available who is obviously more talented than all the others available, Thompson will pick him regardless of the teams needs at the time. That’s not lucky. That’s preparing a plan for building a franchise and sticking to it.

 

[I_am_smoked_cheddar]

Jack, there are many people in this world that believe. Some believe in God. Some believe in luck. Many believe in themselves. It's called an intangible. If it were tangible you could touch it, count it, count upon it, or include it in a statistical analysis. Luck is when the tornado just misses your house. Luck is a shift in the wind as a raging fire passes your house by. Luck is seeing and catching your child before they step in front of a moving vehicle. Luck is being there to save somebody's life when you almost chose to stop off for a burger instead.

Yes, preparation does play the largest role in much of what we do. But don't be so naive and unsophisticated as to believe that a team of champions did not believe in each other. There are many unexplained things in this world that are not tangible.

 

[DevilDon]

What do you call a rare deviation from consistency in a highly skilled player if not luck? I agree that luck is not as big a factor as some believe, but I also believe it is a bigger factor than you portray. Sometimes a player will slip, sometimes you just happen to be at the right place at the right time, but you still need the skill to take advantage of said opportunity. Would you prefer the term "fortunate?" It's essentially a synonym of "luck" but carries a different connotation.

Luck: Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.
There is a better analogy than golf.
The Packers went trap shooting, I've scored from 16 to 25 and this is after much practice and years of the sport. No matter which way you slice it I've never been able to tell my fellow sportsmen my score was a result of good or bad luck. Nobody will buy it. But I'm better with rifles and a steady time to concentrate, still I miss bulls.
Michael Jordan has missed on consecutive shots and every single kicker to ever play the game has probably missed on consecutive shots. It's not luck, it's the way it is.
Can you imagine someone beating the Bulls and saying "shoot, we were lucky Jordan missed two in a row"? I know the percentages favor kickers over BBall but it's still the same. Guys are inconsistent and miss, whether through concentration or conditions or whatever, the fact remains that he missed. Your position is that the Packers didn't force the miss. OK, but it doesn't matter. A clutch guy let the team down, didn't do what he usually does, much like many of the Packers in last years playoffs. Are you also willing to say the Giants were "lucky"?

 

[DevilDon]

I wasn't arguing against Packer fans, I was arguing against the stance that the article took. It just so happened to be a Packer fan who posted the link but my point of view wasn't tied to any argument a Packer fan tried to make. There is no truth in opinion, only conviction. Absolutely a team should play to its strength, which is excatly what I was referring to in the initial post you quoted. You do whatever needs to be done to secure victory. That, I never argued against.

Who did you think you were arguing against on a Packer forum? It just so happened to be a Packer fan? lol. I wasn't against you arguing only pointing out that your premise (at least by it's arguments) were incorrect.
There can be boatload of truth to an opinion. The "knowing world" of Europe once opined that the world was flat. Those few that had an opposing opinion turned out to be correct. It's sherical right?
So do you admit that a pass happy offense can win the SB? Even with a middling defense?

 

[I_am_smoked_cheddar]

I think you're missing the point here Don, No one is saying blame good or bad luck for what happens, but it a factor. Would Franco Harris have made the immaculate reception without luck ? People who have been lost at sea have many times said that they were lucky to be found alive. You have skill with firearms, can you control the wind or is it poor marksmanship that when that trigger was pulled a puff of wind blew downrange in front of the target and caused a miss ?
There are countless examples where luck was a factor in a result. Luck is intangible, you can't grab it and show everyone what it looks like.

 

[DevilDon]

Of course the Packers can’t dictate which players other teams pick but the drafting of Aaron Rodgers was more preparation than luck. I say that because Thompson was acting on what in hindsight has clearly been his modus operandi: When the opportunity arises he picks the player in the higher “talent tier” regardless of the immediate needs of the team. From all we’ve read, the Packers targeted another couple of players at that spot but rather than pick for need, Thompson followed the prepared plan he brought with him to Green Bay.

Was it prescience or luck? How do you accidentally draft the possible best player at the position when you have a one of a kind player at that position already on the roster? BTW Jack, I like your use of "talent tier". It explains alot IMHO on selections.
Consider the recent drafts to find the next ARod. Everybody overdrafts, they all need what fell to Ted at that unlikely spot. Lucky?

 

[DevilDon]

I think you're missing the point here Don, No one is saying blame good or bad luck for what happens, but it a factor. Would Franco Harris have made the immaculate reception without luck ? People who have been lost at sea have many times said that they were lucky to be found alive. You have skill with firearms, can you control the wind or is it poor marksmanship that when that trigger was pulled a puff of wind blew downrange in front of the target and caused a miss ?
There are countless examples where luck was a factor in a result. Luck is intangible, you can't grab it and show everyone what it looks like.

I'm not missing the point. The point is that most of what happens in an NFL game is luck. At least a large portion of it and that was the point of my focus.
No, wind is a huge factor in the way the bird flies and concentration and skill and so on. The point I'm trying to make is that luck can be overcome by good skill.
If you cut a chunk of tree in a vee you can determine with some degree of success which way it will fall when you cut it down. You can angle an explosive to a degree that it will cut through the heaviest of armours if you know how concentrate the blast.
And to answer your question about Franco Harris' reception. How many times in how many NFL games did that odd shaped ball bounce in an odd way and not be anywhere near a receiver? So one time Franco is near the ball as it deflects in his direction. Wouldn't you say that odds are that sooner or later it would happen?
My favorite thing in watching and reading about football is the statisticians. They tell you who should or should not win right? They have all the analysis from charts to tell you this team should win. Well, it's not luck but sometimes one player outperforms another and other times this team outplays another.
I love when they say nobody has lost at home in 20 games or they've never been beat by more than 6 on the road. It doesn't mean squat.
Each game stands on it's own merits. What amazes me is that you attribute it to luck. Shoot, were the Giants "lucky" to beat the Patriots in their undefeated season? Even the Patriots faithful would never say that.
Show me one "lucky" play and I'll tell you the odds were for it. **** happens in life and you can call it luck but the best teams overcome it.
Let me put it this way: You'll never win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket.

 

[DevilDon]

I think you're missing the point here Don, No one is saying blame good or bad luck for what happens, but it a factor. Would Franco Harris have made the immaculate reception without luck ? People who have been lost at sea have many times said that they were lucky to be found alive. You have skill with firearms, can you control the wind or is it poor marksmanship that when that trigger was pulled a puff of wind blew downrange in front of the target and caused a miss ?
There are countless examples where luck was a factor in a result. Luck is intangible, you can't grab it and show everyone what it looks like.

Just to say, fellow marksmen will never allow any windage or heat drafts as an excuse. We're professionals and among the best at what we do. We know those things exist and it's up to each shooter to adjust. That's the point Smokey, you can't make excuses for poor performances, no other professional in the game will allow it. If you do, it's all for the other people who don't know.
Pro football players know too. They know what it takes to play the game and they can say what they want for the cameras but every player in the NFL is on to them.
Not one player on the secondary of the Packers could get away with a "lucky" for the receiver who caught a good one over them. They all know how it's played and all the CBs around the league know too. YOu think those guys sit in the film room and talk about how lucky that receiver was?

 

[I_am_smoked_cheddar]

You cannot predict when a player will make a cut, slip, and fall because of one isolated bad spot on the field. You cannot know that a man will end up with a broken limb as a result of a hit or block. And yes players and coaches do talk about plays were luck played a part. Listen carefully this season for players and coaches that use the word luck. You say that you believe in luck, but that it can be overcome, Not all luck is bad luck Don. Good luck also occurs. Do you want to overcome that as well ? Luck, good or bad, does occur in our everyday lives. It's not an excuse or blame kind of thing, it just is. In most sporting games, luck does play a role. Yes, sometimes quick thinking can save the day, but sometimes a physical impossibility cannot be overcome. The military may train their people that way to get a soldier or sailor to be tougher than their enemy, which is fine for the battlefield. I want the Packers to be tough as well. Yet most people realize that luck will always be part of our sporting activities.

 

[HyponGrey]

Luck: Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.
There is a better analogy than golf.
The Packers went trap shooting, I've scored from 16 to 25 and this is after much practice and years of the sport. No matter which way you slice it I've never been able to tell my fellow sportsmen my score was a result of good or bad luck. Nobody will buy it. But I'm better with rifles and a steady time to concentrate, still I miss bulls.
Michael Jordan has missed on consecutive shots and every single kicker to ever play the game has probably missed on consecutive shots. It's not luck, it's the way it is.
Can you imagine someone beating the Bulls and saying "shoot, we were lucky Jordan missed two in a row"? I know the percentages favor kickers over BBall but it's still the same. Guys are inconsistent and miss, whether through concentration or conditions or whatever, the fact remains that he missed. Your position is that the Packers didn't force the miss. OK, but it doesn't matter. A clutch guy let the team down, didn't do what he usually does, much like many of the Packers in last years playoffs. Are you also willing to say the Giants were "lucky"?

As a matter of fact, if I had been on a team that beat the Bulls, "we were lucky Jordan missed" is the exact thing I would have said. "Lucky he overthrew that, lucky the receiver slipped, lucky the wind kicked up, lucky I saw that ball, lucky I could get there, lucky my instincts were right" all things I have said during/after football games. Maybe that's part of why I never got scouted (No, it was my 5.2 40 and the fact I never went to a school with a football team so I only played community/frat). The Giants were good, and that's why they won. I won't take that away from them. However, you cannot disagree that in sports, there exist other variables than skill, and sometimes something happens that can only be called coincidence (or divine intervention if you prefer) There is a reason we have the saying "I'd rather be lucky than good." the thing about luck is, sometimes we'll never know

The point I'm trying to make is that luck can be overcome by good skill.

I agree about 90% you can't fix a sprained ankle because the wr landed on the cb's foot and rolled it, and you cant skill out of falling on your face just after the qb releases the ball because you hit a patch of mud and you can't skill out of somebody falling just right on your knee, tearing your acl. Some things just suck, lucky they're pretty rare

 

[HyponGrey]

It seems like we all agree that luck makes little difference, but sometimes just a little difference is all that is needed.

 

[DevilDon]

As a matter of fact, if I had been on a team that beat the Bulls, "we were lucky Jordan missed" is the exact thing I would have said. "Lucky he overthrew that, lucky the receiver slipped, lucky the wind kicked up, lucky I saw that ball, lucky I could get there, lucky my instincts were right" all things I have said during/after football games. Maybe that's part of why I never got scouted (No, it was my 5.2 40 and the fact I never went to a school with a football team so I only played community/frat). The Giants were good, and that's why they won. I won't take that away from them. However, you cannot disagree that in sports, there exist other variables than skill, and sometimes something happens that can only be called coincidence (or divine intervention if you prefer) There is a reason we have the saying "I'd rather be lucky than good." the thing about luck is, sometimes we'll never know

I agree about 90% you can't fix a sprained ankle because the wr landed on the cb's foot and rolled it, and you cant skill out of falling on your face just after the qb releases the ball because you hit a patch of mud and you can't skill out of somebody falling just right on your knee, tearing your acl. Some things just suck, lucky they're pretty rare

The entire quote about preference of luck over good says that if you can't be good might as well be lucky. It's not an agent to help your cause. Luck as you describe it is a rare thing. I agree with luck being rare good or bad and is the entire premise of my argument.If you look at the premier players at each position luck has nothing to do with thier preimium careers.
If you want my argument on your professional career I'd say it's more about your idea that it's all about luck in football. I would never want to think about an athlete who thinks it's lucky or unlucky to be beat on a play. I hightly doubt that your 40 time had anything to do with it. TBH, you seem to have a really negative idea about sports. You seem to think no matter what you do it's a roll of the dice and nobody wins championships with that kind of thinking.

 

[TJV]

Jack, there are many people in this world that believe. Some believe in God. Some believe in luck. Many believe in themselves. It's called an intangible. If it were tangible you could touch it, count it, count upon it, or include it in a statistical analysis.

Did you really feel the need to post "luck" is not tangible?

But don't be so naive and unsophisticated as to believe that a team of champions did not believe in each other. There are many unexplained things in this world that are not tangible.

This is a great example of a non-sequitur: Who is arguing teammates don't believe in each other and what does that have to do with a discussion of the role of luck in the outcome of games or seasons? Who is arguing intangible phenomena don't exist and if someone were arguing that, what would that have to do with naiveté or a lack of sophistication?

 

[AmishMafia]

How about the Poker analogy. Poker players who believe in luck don't have many chips. The players who believe in math are the ones who leave the table with the chips.

If I have pocket aces going head to head with someone with a pair of 2's, I have an 80% chance of winning. I want to get as much money in the pot as possible. I'm not guaranteed to win, but if I play the odds, I am guaranteed in the long run to have more chips. My former GF believed whole heartedly in luck and was a terrible card player. What she would accept, finally, is that with pocket 2's going against pocket Aces, you will get 'lucky' 20% of the time. Semantics.

The people in my life who most people call 'lucky' are people that work real hard, try everything, and fail often. But, because they are constantly putting themselves in opportunities, the few situations that pan out they appear 'lucky'.

 

[HyponGrey]

Lets try this again. With the high level of skill involved in this game, we as observers will never know how much luck is actually involved, thus it is pointless to argue. Whether or not the defense improves will not be a matter of luck, so lets get back to topic on this thread.

 

[I_am_smoked_cheddar]

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Defense, it's what we exist for, you better get squared away rookie and quick !!! SIR, YES SIR !

 

[Shawnsta3]

Neither, it was a perception.
All I'm trying to say is that I have feelings but not predicting. I guess after last year's total collapse against the Giants has me shell shocked. I predicted Jordy Nelson, Sam Shields and Marshall Newhouse but missed on Pat Lee, Jamon Meredith and Aaron Rouse. I still stand behind my pick of Starks being a quality back.
I guess I did do a prediction on Mike Neal too so I will stand behind that. I think he's got it.
As for my prediction on Perry, I will maintain that he will be better than everyone who's been there since Matthews was selected but not sure if he'll be a star.

What happened to Aaron Rouse? I remember him playing pretty good as a rookie and then he was just gone.. He's out of the league now isn't he?

 

[Croak]

Did you really feel the need to post "luck" is not tangible?

I've been holding my tongue and holding my tongue, but shoot....I just can't help myself. I believe the Colts would say that "Luck" is VERY tangible.

 

[13 Times Champs]

I've been holding my tongue and holding my tongue, but shoot....I just can't help myself. I believe the Colts would say that "Luck" is VERY tangible.

I'll give you a smiley face and a couple of more for that one!

 

[Jules]

Lets try this again. With the high level of skill involved in this game, we as observers will never know how much luck is actually involved, thus it is pointless to argue. Whether or not the defense improves will not be a matter of luck, so lets get back to topic on this thread.

What is great is we could say the same things before and after the Packers/Colts game.