Wide Receiver

[Dantés]

Ooof Hamler came in smaller than I expected. Not a great sign for him. He has some drop issues, but surprisingly has some big hands. Not what you'd expect from his size profile.

Aiyuk has some freaking long arms. That should help him a lot.

Reagor helped himself by weighing in at over 200 lbs.

Chase Claypool seems like he might be transitioning to a flex TE spot.

 

[Dantés]

Since Justin Jefferson has been something of a lightning rod, I guess I should go ahead and share some thoughts on his actual games.

Here is his game against Florida.

• Snap #1: Covered by a LB. He gets enough space on the quick out to complete the catch, but #33 takes him down immediately. 3 yard gain.
• Snap #2: They blitz the corner and so he has a safety one on one. Burrow reads the blitz and wisely throws into it. Jefferson comes down with the ball against the safety. Nice play-- no one questions this guy's ball skills.
• Snap #3: Seems to be running a clear out? Not part of the play.
• Snap #4: Pressure gets to Burrow.
• Snap #5: Rub route-- his teammate gets in the way of the guy covering Jefferson, he gets the ball in the flat uncontested, cannot convert the 3rd and 2.
• Snap #6: He has a free release and he runs a post into the hole in the zone. Burrow hits him. To his credit he breaks the safety's tackle.
• Snap #7: He's legitimately interfered with, so he draws the flag. He's also bracketed in coverage-- the corner did not need to grab him.
• Snap #8: Excellent contested catch on the scramble drill-- again, his ball skills are not in question.
• Snap #9: Not involved in the play.
• Snap #10: Free release into the flat, uncontested catch, shoestring tackle, 5 yard gain.
• Snap #11: Burrow has 7+ seconds without pressure, Jefferson comes back to the ball after running and drag and them proceeding up the field. Catches the ball for the conversion.
• Snap #12: This is unflagged OPI. The edge drops into coverage and Moss starts blocking him before Jefferson has the ball.
• Snap #13: Not involved in the play.
• Snap #14: Best snap of the game-- stutter step move at the top of his route gets the corner flat footed, he breaks wide open on the dig, and he breaks the tackle after the catch. Great play.
• Snap #15: Not involved in the play.
• Snap #16: Quick slant from a free release. 3 yard gain.
• Snap #17: Good redirection off of the drag, causing the safety to slip and creating a YAC opportunity.
• Snap #18: Not involved in the play.

Overall: 100% of his snaps are in the slot and off of the LOS. He deals with press coverage zero times and rarely has to deal with man coverage of any kind. The LSU offense schemes him up against linebackers and safeties regularly, and schemes him open with rubs and scrapes. His ball skills are apparent, and there are a couple instances of him making some nice moves to break open-- however, almost never against corners. There are skills and tools to work with, but he is not demonstrating a first round skill set. The offense helps him a lot more than he helps the offense. You don't spend 1st round picks on players who you have to protect and scheme open for mostly middling gains. None of this means he can't defeat press or develop skills to separate against man coverage, but I'm not on board with spending a 1st round pick on a receiver based on what I'm not seeing him do on the field.

 

[Dantés]

Now Georgia:

• Snap #1: He's wide open, but that has a lot to do with Georgia not even covering him.
• Snap #2: He's covered when we lose site of him and then Burrow takes off and we miss what's happening downfield.
• Snap #3: He's lined up on the LOS! No on is pressing him, but he's there. The safety, #23, has come down into the box but ends up picking him up in coverage. As you can see in the replay, he essentially sticks with him down the field.
• Snap #4: Locked up by the freshman, #7, and seems to lose track of what's going on in the play.
• Snap #5: Runs a slant from the slot against off coverage. Not a lot of separation there.
• Snap #6: Screen in the flat-- 3 yards.
• Snap #7: Not involved.
• Snap #8: Not involved.
• Snap #9: Run blocking-- his man gets off the block and gets involved in the TFL.
• Snap #10: Not involved.
• Snap #11: Runs either a post of a dig from the slot. You can see he's covered when the camera pans by to follow the ball.
• Snap #12: Runs off-screen-- not involved.
• Snap #13: Lined up on Burrow's hip-- runs into the flat and the coverage is blown.
• Snap #14: Runs off-screen-- not involved.
• Snap #15: Not the target; jogging the route? No separation.
• Snap #16: Not involved.
• Snap #17: Not involved.
• Snap #18: Bracketed-- not the target.
• Snap #19: Covered by a 240 lb-- pass is defended successfully.
• Snap #20: Not involved.
• Snap #21: Run blocking (successfully)
• Snap #22: Schemed open out of the backfield again. Converts the 3rd down.
• Snap #23: Run blocking (successfully)
• Snap #24: Not involved
• Snap #25: Catch in the flat-- jukes the first man, but ultimately corralled just the same.
• Snap #26: Incomplete on the slot fade.
• Snap #27: Comes back to the ball on the scramble drill and Burrow finds him. 10+ seconds after the snap. Breaks the first tackle attempt which is good on him.
• Snap #28: Rub route-- easy 6.
• Snap #29: Screen in the flat-- 1 yard gain, no conversion.

 

[AmishMafia]

Man you have a lot of time on your hands.

We spent a first on a guy last year that had great measurables and no production.

Now we can get great measurables and great production.

There is a lot to work with here. We can apply his skills in abilities in a lot of different ways. I doubt he makes it to 30, but if he does, I wouldnt hesitate to pull that trigger.

 

[Dantés]

Man you have a lot of time on your hands.

We spent a first on a guy last year that had great measurables and no production.

Now we can get great measurables and great production.

There is a lot to work with here. We can apply his skills in abilities in a lot of different ways. I doubt he makes it to 30, but if he does, I wouldnt hesitate to pull that trigger.

I understand that argument, but if they want to spend a pick on rare traits, there are better options than Jefferson. And Gary was, in ways, an all time freaky athlete at his position. Jefferson had a nice forty and some good jumps, but he isn't close to as rare in that regard.

Feel free to weigh in on the tape if you think I'm not reading him wrong.

 

[Dantés]

Going back through these games, it's funny to me that Jefferson has been touted over the fact that the SEC has so many good corners.

LSU constantly got him matched up on linebackers, safeties, and third corners. Of any receiver that I've watched this year, he got to face the lowest level of coverage talent.

His blow-up game in the playoffs is a great example. He did some great things in that contest, but he also had the chance to make play after play against safety Justin Broiles playing in off coverage.

 

[GleefulGary]

I understand that argument, but if they want to spend a pick on rare traits, there are better options than Jefferson. And Gary was, in ways, an all time freaky athlete at his position. Jefferson had a nice forty and some good jumps, but he isn't close to as rare in that regard.

Feel free to way in on the tape if you think I'm not reading him wrong.

Oh I will WAY in on that tape, buddy.

 

[Dantés]

PFF tracks the percentage of targets that are accurate. The higher the accuracy percentage, the more a given receiver was thrown an accurate ball by his QB.

#1 in accuracy percentage was Justin Jefferson at 69%.

Dead last in the entire draft class was Jalen Reagor as a paltry 31%.

https://texanswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/27/tcu-wr-jalen-reagor-accurate-passes/

 

[Dantés]

Per Dane Brugler, scouts had three players tied for the fastest 10 yd split at the combine (an absurd 1.48):

-Henry Ruggs
-Jalen Reagor
-Jonathan Taylor

I am starting to understand why Reagor appeared so much faster than 4.47 on tape-- his acceleration is elite, but he's not a long strider, so his top speed is not.

This would match with a guy who had elite jumps and an elite 10 yd, but merely an above average in the full forty.

 

[tynimiller]

Per Dane Brugler, scouts had three players tied for the fastest 10 yd split at the combine (an absurd 1.48):

-Henry Ruggs
-Jalen Reagor
-Jonathan Taylor

I am starting to understand why Reagor appeared so much faster than 4.47 on tape-- his acceleration is elite, but he's not a long strider, so his top speed is not.

This would match with a guy who had elite jumps and an elite 10 yd, but merely an above average in the full forty.

Yup!! Which is why this along with cone drill I always analysis much more closely than 40. It isn't often that one is confronted with a straight line 40 yard race against the defender....

 

[Dantés]

As it looks like the Packers may not be all that interested in resigning Bulaga, OT could quickly become the top need on the roster, and thus a likely option in the first round. Picking an OT at #30 would obviously mean that a receiver would be a 2nd round consideration. To get an idea of how many receivers could go in the top two rounds, I pulled those numbers from the last 10 drafts. These numbers indicate how many wide receivers were drafted in rounds 1 and 2.

2019: 8
2018: 8
2017: 6
2016: 7
2015: 9
2014: 12
2013: 6
2012: 9
2011: 7
2010: 4

So the average number is 7.6, with a high of 12 and a low of 4. Let's just assume as a thought exercise that 2020 will match the high of 12, because of how many quality receiver prospects there are in this class. Here are all of the wide receivers, in no real set order, who are being talked about as top 1-2 round players:

1. C. Lamb, Oklahoma
2. J. Jeudy, Alabama
3. H. Ruggs, Alabama
4. J. Jefferson, LSU
5. D. Mims, Baylor
6. B. Aiyuk, Arizona State
7. J. Reagor, TCU
8. L. Shenault, Colorado
9. T. Higgins, Clemson
10. K. Hamler, Penn State
11. M. Pittman, USC
12. C. Claypool, Notre Dame

So if the Packers end up targeting a receiver in the 2nd round, there's a good chance that one of the above will be an option at #62. And if one is getting close, and they want to move up a bit to secure said player, the costs could be estimated as follows:

• 62 > 55: 66 points; mid 4th round pick
• 62 > 50: 116 points; late 3rd round pick

 

[Dantés]

Yup!! Which is why this along with cone drill I always analysis much more closely than 40. It isn't often that one is confronted with a straight line 40 yard race against the defender....

Combine-wide, a lot of prospects either underperformed or held themselves out of agility drills this year. Many said that they felt dead-legged, as the schedule was much later this year at the combine, and the agilities were the last thing on the docket. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of prospects really improve their 3C and SS times at pro days.

 

[Mondio]

As it looks like the Packers may not be all that interested in resigning Bulaga, OT could quickly become the top need on the roster, and thus a likely option in the first round.

Have you heard anything specific, or just the lack of any news leading you to believe that? I haven't seen anything really, but I don't pay that close of attention this time of year either.

 

[tynimiller]

As it looks like the Packers may not be all that interested in resigning Bulaga, OT could quickly become the top need on the roster, and thus a likely option in the first round. Picking an OT at #30 would obviously mean that a receiver would be a 2nd round consideration. To get an idea of how many receivers could go in the top two rounds, I pulled those numbers from the last 10 drafts. These numbers indicate how many wide receivers were drafted in rounds 1 and 2.

2019: 8
2018: 8
2017: 6
2016: 7
2015: 9
2014: 12
2013: 6
2012: 9
2011: 7
2010: 4

So the average number is 7.6, with a high of 12 and a low of 4. Let's just assume as a thought exercise that 2020 will match the high of 12, because of how many quality receiver prospects there are in this class. Here are all of the wide receivers, in no real set order, who are being talked about as top 1-2 round players:

1. C. Lamb, Oklahoma
2. J. Jeudy, Alabama
3. H. Ruggs, Alabama
4. J. Jefferson, LSU
5. D. Mims, Baylor
6. B. Aiyuk, Arizona State
7. J. Reagor, TCU
8. L. Shenault, Colorado
9. T. Higgins, Clemson
10. K. Hamler, Penn State
11. M. Pittman, USC
12. C. Claypool, Notre Dame

So if the Packers end up targeting a receiver in the 2nd round, there's a good chance that one of the above will be an option at #62. And if one is getting close, and they want to move up a bit to secure said player, the costs could be estimated as follows:

• 62 > 55: 66 points; mid 4th round pick
• 62 > 50: 116 points; late 3rd round pick

Yup which is why I've come off of us picking a WR at #30...or really with our first pick even. There just is too many solid candidates that are instant upgrades. Your list is pretty much exactly what mine would be...but I'll throw in a Tyler Johnson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and even a few further down: Van Jefferson, KJ Hill, Antonio Gandy-Golden...all guys that many say should be expected to instantly contribute.

Shoot some of my favorites down further yet depending on role you want you got Proche, Duvernay and Edwards...

Honestly this depth hasn't been seen at this position since that incredible 2014 class which had Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Paul Richardson, Davante Adams, Cody Latimer, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry ALL BEFORE THE 3RD ROUND!!! 3rd round on guys like Donte Montcrief, John Brown, Martavis Bryant....and some UDFA guys like Willie Snead and Allen Hurns....

 

[Dantés]

Yup which is why I've come off of us picking a WR at #30...or really with our first pick even. There just is too many solid candidates that are instant upgrades. Your list is pretty much exactly what mine would be...but I'll throw in a Tyler Johnson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and even a few further down: Van Jefferson, KJ Hill, Antonio Gandy-Golden...all guys that many say should be expected to instantly contribute.

Shoot some of my favorites down further yet depending on role you want you got Proche, Duvernay and Edwards...

Honestly this depth hasn't been seen at this position since that incredible 2014 class which had Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Paul Richardson, Davante Adams, Cody Latimer, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry ALL BEFORE THE 3RD ROUND!!! 3rd round on guys like Donte Montcrief, John Brown, Martavis Bryant....and some UDFA guys like Willie Snead and Allen Hurns....

I would be fine with them taking a receiver at #30 if they have a guy who is just too good to pass on, or maybe trading out and taking one with their first pick after moving down into the 2nd round. But if they let Bulaga walk, then OT is going to be a huge priority. They'll have to take one with their first pick unless the board is just totally wiped out at the position.

 

[tynimiller]

I would be fine with them taking a receiver at #30 if they have a guy who is just too good to pass on, or maybe trading out and taking one with their first pick after moving down into the 2nd round. But if they let Bulaga walk, then OT is going to be a huge priority. They'll have to take one with their first pick unless the board is just totally wiped out at the position.

I agree...with the outside chance of a Veldheer resigning...which could bump OT being needed but could swing 1st-3rd range in there and not have us pegged as desperate immediately.

 

[Dantés]

I agree...with the outside chance of a Veldheer resigning...which could bump OT being needed but could swing 1st-3rd range in there and not have us pegged as desperate immediately.

I think Veldheer likely re-signs if Bulaga walks, but that wouldn't change much for me. He's nothing more than a safety net for a 1st round tackle, in my opinion.

 

[GleefulGary]

I think Veldheer likely re-signs if Bulaga walks, but that wouldn't change much for me. He's nothing more than a safety net for a 1st round tackle, in my opinion.

I think that applies for Bulaga as well.

Almost have to draft an OT with one of our first two picks, regardless of what they do.

 

[RepStar15]

I know this is going to be unpopular opinion but...After watching some tape (not highlight reels but actual tape) I do not like Henry Ruggs early or Denzel Mims in the first round. I am prepared to get roasted for this, but allow me to explain. Upon further review Ruggs is certainly lightning fast, no matter how you watch the tape, but its really a North to South speed. You like him from the slot, but you want a slot WR to shake and bake. He is not explosive on crossing routes, slants or comebacks. It is interesting to watch him because he pairs up well against NFL caliber safeties from the slot, but gets "lost", then against NFL caliber CBs he simply can't handle the physicality. He looks like Tyreek Hill, but lacks the physicality. Since he has kick and punt return ability, I will say late day 1/early round 2 grade.
For Mims, I think his combine production does not show up on tape...at all. The best part about Mims is his blocking effort/abilities, that a team could value quite high. He also finds himself open against zone and does well on comebacks (which is a positive for GB, but not a benefit for every team). BUT, it is difficult to get over the dropped passes and lack of situational awareness. He looks awkward on the field. It is hard to describe, but I once worked with a high school WR. Kid had all the tools to be a successful football player (6'4, 200, speed, hands, lacked a support system at home and his grades revoked a full ride to Rutgers) anyhow, a Tenneessee scout came to watch him play. He was talking to be about the kind of person off the field he was, but something that stuck with me was that he kept saying, he looked awkward out there. That is exactly how I feel about Mims. Often times he is matched up against small, unphysical corners that he total man-handles, but he looks awkward doing it. I think he is a late day 2 prospect at best. I am prepared for the roast to ensue, but its my honest evaluation of the player.

 

[tynimiller]

I know this is going to be unpopular opinion but...After watching some tape (not highlight reels but actual tape) I do not like Henry Ruggs early or Denzel Mims in the first round. I am prepared to get roasted for this, but allow me to explain. Upon further review Ruggs is certainly lightning fast, no matter how you watch the tape, but its really a North to South speed. You like him from the slot, but you want a slot WR to shake and bake. He is not explosive on crossing routes, slants or comebacks. It is interesting to watch him because he pairs up well against NFL caliber safeties from the slot, but gets "lost", then against NFL caliber CBs he simply can't handle the physicality. He looks like Tyreek Hill, but lacks the physicality. Since he has kick and punt return ability, I will say late day 1/early round 2 grade.
For Mims, I think his combine production does not show up on tape...at all. The best part about Mims is his blocking effort/abilities, that a team could value quite high. He also finds himself open against zone and does well on comebacks (which is a positive for GB, but not a benefit for every team). BUT, it is difficult to get over the dropped passes and lack of situational awareness. He looks awkward on the field. It is hard to describe, but I once worked with a high school WR. Kid had all the tools to be a successful football player (6'4, 200, speed, hands, lacked a support system at home and his grades revoked a full ride to Rutgers) anyhow, a Tenneessee scout came to watch him play. He was talking to be about the kind of person off the field he was, but something that stuck with me was that he kept saying, he looked awkward out there. That is exactly how I feel about Mims. Often times he is matched up against small, unphysical corners that he total man-handles, but he looks awkward doing it. I think he is a late day 2 prospect at best. I am prepared for the roast to ensue, but its my honest evaluation of the player.

I disagree on Mims opinions...but I don't have him as a 1st rounder. I will comment on the Ruggs however, as I agree 100%. The dude is a straight better version of MVS IMO. What he does he does extremely well, run blazing fast. He has NFL worthy hands. Beyond those two traits I don't see it. Honestly, if you put KJ Hamler and Ruggs at our pick and said I had to pick one or the other. Hamler is a Packer. Many say Hamler is the poor man's Ruggs...I believe Hamler utilized right will provide more to an offense than Ruggs.

Now, ALL that said both would instantly make Green Bay better. We have that all pro WR in Adams that can do it all. You add a Ruggs that has better one cut and RUN routes than MVS, with IMO better ball tracking skills and that is a route tree (albeit one dimensional) Green Bay just hasn't had. I will also say I probably was a little harsh on Ruggs, I do feel he has a better feel for middle crossers than MVS does, which is another thing which could shine in our system. However, Hamler I feel does all that and more. Line him up in the backfield, screen balls quick to this kid is one tackle missed from a BIG play everytime.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I think that applies for Bulaga as well.

Almost have to draft an OT with one of our first two picks, regardless of what they do.

Not really, kind of a myth that great tackles have to be drafted in the first couple rounds.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I would be fine with them taking a receiver at #30 if they have a guy who is just too good to pass on, or maybe trading out and taking one with their first pick after moving down into the 2nd round. But if they let Bulaga walk, then OT is going to be a huge priority. They'll have to take one with their first pick unless the board is just totally wiped out at the position.

First, I doubt the packers are going to go into the season relying on a rookie RT if they don't sign Bulaga. At the worst I would expect them to have Veldeer. Second, why does everyone continually think that starting tackles HAVE to be drafted in the first round? Very good tackles can be found later in the draft just as easily as they can be found in the first round (i.e., not easy to find them but no better likelihood in the first round than the 4th-6th).

 

[Mondio]

With Veldheer "retiring" last year and then un retiring half way thru the year, I wouldn't feel comfortable counting on him to be anything more than back up insurance at this point.

 

[Dantés]

First, I doubt the packers are going to go into the season relying on a rookie RT if they don't sign Bulaga. At the worst I would expect them to have Veldeer. Second, why does everyone continually think that starting tackles HAVE to be drafted in the first round? Very good tackles can be found later in the draft just as easily as they can be found in the first round (i.e., not easy to find them but no better likelihood in the first round than the 4th-6th).

The post that you were quoting assumed that Veldheer would be back. But he is not someone you want to rely on as a starter.

No one has said that good tackles HAVE to be drafted in the first round. There are several interesting OT prospects that I think could be found later. I even named some of them in that post.

However, if we are talking about an OT *who could start immediately* and play well, then you're probably having to take that player high. That's just the reality.

Offensive tackles taken 62 or later than came in and started immediately and played well are extremely rare.

 

[Dantés]

Not really, kind of a myth that great tackles have to be drafted in the first couple rounds.

Again-- no one is saying this. It's a straw man.