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Why I Love The 2026-2027 Green Bay Packers
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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1098211" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>It will probably seem like sour grapes* but I do think the Bears are a big candidate for regression this season. Honestly in a lot of ways they remind me of the Vikings the year prior (except the Vikings were better defensively...)</p><p></p><p>- Last season they had a really mediocre-to-bad defense overall. They allowed the 4th-most total yards and yards per play in the league, finished 23rd in defensive EPA, and were 26th in pressure rate. They did very little to address their terrible pass rush, and are having some heavy turnover in the secondary - apparently hoping to be able to offset most of that thru their rookie safety they've added in Thieneman. Tyrique Stevenson and Jaylon Johnson look set to feature heavily at CB but both were average-at-best last season. </p><p></p><p>- On top of all that, the defense was VERY much buoyed by generating turnovers. As you may have heard before, turnovers are one of the single-most volatile metrics in the game. Last season they led the league with 33; the season prior they were 11th with 24. Teams almost never go back-to-back as turnover leaders. Even if you didn't take into account any of the personnel changes, a turnover-regression alone would seriously hurt their defense. Overall, I think it is more likely the defense is worse this season rather than better compared to last season. </p><p></p><p>- Relatedly, in another volatile metric - the Bears went 7-4 in one-score games, 8-5 if you include the postseason. League average win percentage in one-score games is right around 50%; last season they were about 62-64% here. One might reasonably also expect 1-2 more losses on this basis alone... </p><p></p><p>- And the context for this - last season Chicago had the 3rd-eastiest preseason strength of schedule, and ended up finishing the year with the 4th-easiest strength of schedule. This year their preseason strength of schedule is the most difficult in the league. Simple Rating System, which accounts for strength of schedule and point differential, had the Bears as the 17th-ranked team in the league last season.</p><p></p><p>And looking in particular at Caleb... </p><p></p><p>- Last season he had the third-highest bad throw percentage and second-lowest on target percentage, and the lowest completion percentage of any playoff-bound QB since 2012</p><p></p><p>- Out of 30 qualified passers, Williams was 19th in EPA per play, 24th in pass success rate, 29th in completion percentage over expectation, and 20th in adjusted EPA per play. </p><p></p><p>- Similarly, he finished last season 17th in QBR and 22nd in passer rating</p><p></p><p>- per PFF, Caleb was 18th in overall passing grade. He was 21st in pass yards per attempt, 18th in turnover worth throw rate, 29th in accuracy rate, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate. </p><p></p><p>- from the previous season, Williams' completion rating under pressure declined; he took less sacks overall but also was the second-slowest QB in the league in time to throw, and by extension his total attempts made under pressure increased</p><p></p><p>- Speaking again of turnover-volatility, we saw in 2024 that Caleb had 6 interceptions to go against 12 "expected" interceptions. In other words, he threw 12 balls that "should" have been picked, but only 6 were. As you might expect that number balanced out some last season - his turnover-worthy-throws-to-interceptions rate nearly doubled from 26.7% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, and it followed that total INTS doubled from 6 in 2024 to 12 in 2025. At the same time, he had just 8.4 "credited" turnovers last season against 16 "turnover worthy plays" (in this sense - some plays generated a turnover that "shouldn't have," but more plays that *didn't* result in a turnover "should have".) </p><p></p><p></p><p>*Just to look somewhat objective, it would not surprise me if the Packers take a step back this season as well. On a related note, we had the 9th-easiest schedule last season, and are projected the 3rd-hardest this season. On the whole, I think there are reasons for optimism and reasons for doubt on both sides</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1098211, member: 17987"] It will probably seem like sour grapes* but I do think the Bears are a big candidate for regression this season. Honestly in a lot of ways they remind me of the Vikings the year prior (except the Vikings were better defensively...) - Last season they had a really mediocre-to-bad defense overall. They allowed the 4th-most total yards and yards per play in the league, finished 23rd in defensive EPA, and were 26th in pressure rate. They did very little to address their terrible pass rush, and are having some heavy turnover in the secondary - apparently hoping to be able to offset most of that thru their rookie safety they've added in Thieneman. Tyrique Stevenson and Jaylon Johnson look set to feature heavily at CB but both were average-at-best last season. - On top of all that, the defense was VERY much buoyed by generating turnovers. As you may have heard before, turnovers are one of the single-most volatile metrics in the game. Last season they led the league with 33; the season prior they were 11th with 24. Teams almost never go back-to-back as turnover leaders. Even if you didn't take into account any of the personnel changes, a turnover-regression alone would seriously hurt their defense. Overall, I think it is more likely the defense is worse this season rather than better compared to last season. - Relatedly, in another volatile metric - the Bears went 7-4 in one-score games, 8-5 if you include the postseason. League average win percentage in one-score games is right around 50%; last season they were about 62-64% here. One might reasonably also expect 1-2 more losses on this basis alone... - And the context for this - last season Chicago had the 3rd-eastiest preseason strength of schedule, and ended up finishing the year with the 4th-easiest strength of schedule. This year their preseason strength of schedule is the most difficult in the league. Simple Rating System, which accounts for strength of schedule and point differential, had the Bears as the 17th-ranked team in the league last season. And looking in particular at Caleb... - Last season he had the third-highest bad throw percentage and second-lowest on target percentage, and the lowest completion percentage of any playoff-bound QB since 2012 - Out of 30 qualified passers, Williams was 19th in EPA per play, 24th in pass success rate, 29th in completion percentage over expectation, and 20th in adjusted EPA per play. - Similarly, he finished last season 17th in QBR and 22nd in passer rating - per PFF, Caleb was 18th in overall passing grade. He was 21st in pass yards per attempt, 18th in turnover worth throw rate, 29th in accuracy rate, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate. - from the previous season, Williams' completion rating under pressure declined; he took less sacks overall but also was the second-slowest QB in the league in time to throw, and by extension his total attempts made under pressure increased - Speaking again of turnover-volatility, we saw in 2024 that Caleb had 6 interceptions to go against 12 "expected" interceptions. In other words, he threw 12 balls that "should" have been picked, but only 6 were. As you might expect that number balanced out some last season - his turnover-worthy-throws-to-interceptions rate nearly doubled from 26.7% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, and it followed that total INTS doubled from 6 in 2024 to 12 in 2025. At the same time, he had just 8.4 "credited" turnovers last season against 16 "turnover worthy plays" (in this sense - some plays generated a turnover that "shouldn't have," but more plays that *didn't* result in a turnover "should have".) *Just to look somewhat objective, it would not surprise me if the Packers take a step back this season as well. On a related note, we had the 9th-easiest schedule last season, and are projected the 3rd-hardest this season. On the whole, I think there are reasons for optimism and reasons for doubt on both sides [/QUOTE]
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