Which Team(s) Are Most Likely To Regress From Winning Records Last Year To Losing Ones This Year?

Which Team(s) Are Going To Regress?

  • Detroit Lions

    Votes: 14 38.9%
  • Miami Dolphins

    Votes: 15 41.7%
  • Oakland Raiders

    Votes: 1 2.8%
  • New York Giants

    Votes: 8 22.2%
  • Atlanta Falcons

    Votes: 13 36.1%
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Votes: 5 13.9%
  • Tennessee Titans

    Votes: 2 5.6%

  • Total voters
    36

PikeBadger

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actually, it says regress in the poll, and it's not out of the question to see Dallas going from #1 seed in the entire NFC to 2nd place in the NFCEast or worse.

and if I'd read thread titles maybe I'd see it did ask for losing records :)
I can see Dallas having a bad year. Replacing two starters on the O-Line and the defense appears to still be very average and short on great playmakers. A 7 win season wouldn't shock me at all.
 

GBkrzygrl

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The Lions are the easiest answer. They trailed in the 4th quarter in 15/16 games. The only other team to do that was the Cleveland Browns. Statistically, it's a major anamoly to trail that often but manage to win that many games. And frankly, their roster just isn't that good.

I can also see the Giants slide. I believe Eli is in full decline, and that offensive line is going to allow edge rushers to tee off on him.

The Falcons are probably the 2nd easiest to peg for regression, but that regression probably won't take them below .500. Offenses that good usually step back by about a touchdown per game the following season. And in this case, the guy that made it all go is gone. It's weird-- we've seen Ryan and Jones & Co put up good, not great numbers for years. Then they explode under Shanahan and the assumption is that that's the new norm.

That's why I voted for Atlanta to regress. I am wondering how much Shanahan leaving will affect the offense. When Philbin left I'm pretty sure it affected our offense.
 

Dantés

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That's why I voted for Atlanta to regress. I am wondering how much Shanahan leaving will affect the offense. When Philbin left I'm pretty sure it affected our offense.

The only reason I didn't vote for them is that the poll refers to teams who will be under .500. I don't think they'll fall that far.
 
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I can see Dallas having a bad year. Replacing two starters on the O-Line and the defense appears to still be very average and short on great playmakers. A 7 win season wouldn't shock me at all.

The Cowboys had the fifth best scoring defense last season. I would love the Packers to have such an average unit.
 

PikeBadger

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The Cowboys had the fifth best scoring defense last season. I would love the Packers to have such an average unit.
Which was helped immensely by the highly successful ball-control Cowboy offense which I believe will have the impossible task of duplicating that season-long success.
 
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Which was helped immensely by the highly successful ball-control Cowboy offense which I believe will have the impossible task of duplicating that season-long success.

Interestingly the Cowboys only possessed the ball 19 seconds on average per game longer than the Packers last season.
 

brandon2348

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The Cowboys had the fifth best scoring defense last season. I would love the Packers to have such an average unit.

They lost Claiborne, Carr, Church and Wilcox. That's 224 career starts in the secondary alone. They also lost Jack Crawford. There big O-Line should take a step back and I'm not 100 percent all in on Prescott either. Dez Bryant has shown some wear and tear too.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Cowboys miss the playoffs in 2017.
 

Carl

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The Cowboys had the fifth best scoring defense last season. I would love the Packers to have such an average unit.

That's one of those stats that make me say, really? Never once heard of them having a good defense prior to the divisional round.

Taking a quick look at their schedule last year, I bet a big part of that is due to playing very few good offensive teams. Don't see the Cowboys being that high again.
 

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That's one of those stats that make me say, really? Never once heard of them having a good defense prior to the divisional round.

Taking a quick look at their schedule last year, I bet a big part of that is due to playing very few good offensive teams. Don't see the Cowboys being that high again.

I would guess that's due in part to the disparity between their roster talent and their coaching talent. Their depth chart on defense is decidedly unimpressive, but Marinelli gets a ton out of it. He is one of the biggest assets that club has, despite rarely being mentioned along with the OL, or the triplets.
 
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They lost Claiborne, Carr, Church and Wilcox. That's 224 career starts in the secondary alone. They also lost Jack Crawford. There big O-Line should take a step back and I'm not 100 percent all in on Prescott either. Dez Bryant has shown some wear and tear too.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Cowboys miss the playoffs in 2017.

I don't expect the Cowboys to end up as the #1 seed in the NFC this season either but still expect them to have a winning record though.

That's one of those stats that make me say, really? Never once heard of them having a good defense prior to the divisional round.

Taking a quick look at their schedule last year, I bet a big part of that is due to playing very few good offensive teams. Don't see the Cowboys being that high again.

While it's true the Cowboys didn't play any elite offenses aside of the Packers during the regular season in 2016 their defense consistently performed on a good level, not giving up more than 30 points even once. I agree that they most likely won't finish among the top five in points allowed this season again though.
 
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PackerfaninCarolina

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Along this line, didn't see this article posted.

Quite a few bubbles from this time last season popped by reality.

Gonna be interesting week 1 here. I'd say Detroit is the team that can least afford to start in the hole and very well could with a much-improved Cardinals unit coming to town that week. Vikings and Saints could be telling too though.
 
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Shouldn't WE be on that list? I hope we don't, but there is every chance we could if this defense doesn't perform at the top of it's potential. If it even ends up being "good" for the personnel we have, that will probably be enough to sink us under 10 wins. Not popular, I know, but I really REALLY hate our defense right now.
 

Dantés

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Shouldn't WE be on that list? I hope we don't, but there is every chance we could if this defense doesn't perform at the top of it's potential. If it even ends up being "good" for the personnel we have, that will probably be enough to sink us under 10 wins. Not popular, I know, but I really REALLY hate our defense right now.

Objectively, the Packers don't have any of the hallmarks of a regression candidate. There aren't any of the tell tale signs that usually help predict a backwards slide.

They were 8th in point differential, which matches their record.

They didn't have a slew of players with career years out of nowhere.

Their performance last season was not an outlier compared to the last 5+ years.

They weren't routinely having to come back late to get their wins.

They weren't especially lucky with fumbles.

They weren't remarkably healthy.

They have continuity on the roster, coaching staff, and front office.

Technically speaking, any team who wins at least 1 game is a regression candidate. Anything is possible. But the Packers shouldn't be identified as one because they don't exhibit any of the predictors.
 
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Objectively, the Packers don't have any of the hallmarks of a regression candidate (...) Technically speaking, any team who wins at least 1 game is a regression candidate. Anything is possible. But the Packers shouldn't be identified as one because they don't exhibit any of the predictors.

Per your continuity point, I'd suggest that we lost enough on defense to possibly qualify. I'd also suggest that what Rodgers pulled this team through last year was, while not out of character for him (good god, I love watching him play), it was still something that should be statistically unlikely. Last year could have easily ended up as a 9-7 season with missed playoffs, and that's where pessimistic brain has me thinking we could be this year. We got some new faces, and some middling-older faces back, but I still think this team over-performed last year, and is overall a little bit worse this year.

This is entirely how I feel, though, and not something I'm able to support with metrics. I don't know if I'm hyping myself down so that I can enjoy what I fear will be a bad season better or if I'm just becoming more and more of a debby downer as I hit middle age.
 

PackAttack12

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Per your continuity point, I'd suggest that we lost enough on defense to possibly qualify. I'd also suggest that what Rodgers pulled this team through last year was, while not out of character for him (good god, I love watching him play), it was still something that should be statistically unlikely. Last year could have easily ended up as a 9-7 season with missed playoffs, and that's where pessimistic brain has me thinking we could be this year. We got some new faces, and some middling-older faces back, but I still think this team over-performed last year, and is overall a little bit worse this year.

This is entirely how I feel, though, and not something I'm able to support with metrics. I don't know if I'm hyping myself down so that I can enjoy what I fear will be a bad season better or if I'm just becoming more and more of a debby downer as I hit middle age.
The offense performing on a high level toward the latter part of the season is why the Packers were able to turn the season around and make the playoffs.

The team was 10-2 with Jared Cook in the lineup last year. Now with Bennett and Kendricks, I see the offense being good enough to propel the team somewhere close to a #1 overall seed in the conference, and certainly a division crown.
 
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The offense performing on a high level toward the latter part of the season is why the Packers were able to turn the season around and make the playoffs.

The team was 10-2 with Jared Cook in the lineup last year. Now with Bennett and Kendricks, I see the offense being good enough to propel the team somewhere close to a #1 overall seed in the conference, and certainly a division crown.

This, we started out in the hole because Rodgers was in a slump and firing wild balls all over the field early on last year. I don't think it'll be the case this season, and while our defense still has concerns, if it were to improve even moderately I'd give us a great chance to rack up that number 1 seed considering Seattle's offensive line is a mess and they no longer can rely on their defense to get the job done. At this point there's no telling who our stiffest competitor might be, but I got a feeling it might be the Arizona Cardinals. Despite taking a big step back last season, Arians has still done a hell of a job coaching that team and if they stay relatively healthy this season, they might be the forgotten team to watch out for.
 

Dantés

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Per your continuity point, I'd suggest that we lost enough on defense to possibly qualify. I'd also suggest that what Rodgers pulled this team through last year was, while not out of character for him (good god, I love watching him play), it was still something that should be statistically unlikely. Last year could have easily ended up as a 9-7 season with missed playoffs, and that's where pessimistic brain has me thinking we could be this year. We got some new faces, and some middling-older faces back, but I still think this team over-performed last year, and is overall a little bit worse this year.

This is entirely how I feel, though, and not something I'm able to support with metrics. I don't know if I'm hyping myself down so that I can enjoy what I fear will be a bad season better or if I'm just becoming more and more of a debby downer as I hit middle age.

I have no problem if that is your opinion, it's just not what the numbers say. And of course, there are cases of regression where the indicators were not really there beforehand. However, most teams that significantly regress had some predictors showing up going into that season. But allow me to continue arguing you into some more educated optimism.

As for continuity, the Packers only lost one starter on defense from a year ago-- Shields (and he missed almost the entire season last year anyhow). I realize the depth has churned somewhat, but if that constitutes a lack roster continuity then I would argue that there is basically no such thing.

Rodgers is unequivocally the single biggest advantage on this team by a decent margin, and he did play incredibly well last year. However, I would point out that a much less incredible version of him led the team to the same record in 2015. A less than superhuman Rodgers has not necessarily meant a losing record for the Packers.

I'm not sure I would agree that the roster got worse this season. On defense, they have improved personnel on the DL, at S, and at CB. Their edge rusher group is admittedly weaker barring big leaps from Fackrell and/or Elliott. The RG position is the only area on offense where they got worse and it's hard for me to see how that is going to have a huge impact. Tight end most certainly improved, and running back is a complete unknown in my opinion. Not to say that they improved at every single spot, but the net direction is forward in my opinion.

Finally, on the performance of the defense, one of the nice things about the continuity on the Packers is that we have a lot of data that corresponds directly to this staff. In Capers' 8 years as the defensive coordinator, his unit has finished 7th, 2nd, 19th, 11th, 24th, 13th, 12th, and 21st in scoring defense. Arguments about personnel aside, the numbers would say that the most likely direction of the defense in 2017 is slightly up. I would guess they're close to average in scoring defense this season.
 

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This, we started out in the hole because Rodgers was in a slump and firing wild balls all over the field early on last year. I don't think it'll be the case this season, and while our defense still has concerns, if it were to improve even moderately I'd give us a great chance to rack up that number 1 seed considering Seattle's offensive line is a mess and they no longer can rely on their defense to get the job done. At this point there's no telling who our stiffest competitor might be, but I got a feeling it might be the Arizona Cardinals. Despite taking a big step back last season, Arians has still done a hell of a job coaching that team and if they stay relatively healthy this season, they might be the forgotten team to watch out for.
Carson looks cooked.
 
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The offense performing on a high level toward the latter part of the season is why the Packers were able to turn the season around and make the playoffs.

The team was 10-2 with Jared Cook in the lineup last year. Now with Bennett and Kendricks, I see the offense being good enough to propel the team somewhere close to a #1 overall seed in the conference, and certainly a division crown.

That whole Jared Cook thing is not an accurate predictor to me, it is an outlier in and of itself.
 

PackAttack12

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That whole Jared Cook thing is not an accurate predictor to me, it is an outlier in and of itself.
Having a productive tight end commanding attention in the middle of the field directly correlates to more opportunities for Rodgers to make plays on the outside. If you don't think it makes a difference, try remembering what the offense looked like in 2015.

Bennett and Kendricks are going to make an even greater difference on the offense this season than Cook did. Plus the running game can only improve based off of last season. Barring just an insane number of injuries, it takes even the most pessimistic of outlooks to suggest the team could be worse.
 
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Having a productive tight end commanding attention in the middle of the field directly correlates to more opportunities for Rodgers to make plays on the outside. If you don't think it makes a difference, try remembering what the offense looked like in 2015.

Bennett and Kendricks are going to make an even greater difference on the offense this season than Cook did. Plus the running game can only improve based off of last season. Barring just an insane number of injuries, it takes even the most pessimistic of outlooks to suggest the team could be worse.
I'm not suggesting that having a dominant TE is not a good thing; that is a given. I'm contesting that Jared Cook was somehow solely or even largely responsible for the team going 10-2 when he was playing, as that is what was directly implied.

I also doubt the ability of this team to fully utilize a dominant TE in the manner which many other teams have become adept. This is not to say we cannot do so, but that aside from Cook our last best guy - Finely - was never really much of a focal point for our offense in the way that people seem to remember.

We run a unit designed to take advantage of highly skilled WRs and meticulously timed routes. The primary weapon for Rodgers is, and has been, the WR. Aside from the QB and WRs themselves, the most important next factor in opening up our passing game (specifically WR game) is our running game, something MM has said again and again, to the extent which it keeps the defense from selling out on the pass. I'm totally willing to accept that a dominant TE, used well in the middle of the field especially, can do something similar, but that is not something our team has demonstrated much in the last decade. I personally believe that an effective short passing game could do as much or more for us as an effective running game. I would love to see Bennett and Kendricks fill that role for the team, though I will have to be convinced that two guys at twenty-nine and thirty years old will totally transform our offense. They could, I hope they will, but it will have to be proven to me.
 

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