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Message: <blockquote data-quote="AmishMafia" data-source="post: 569919" data-attributes="member: 2846">It is always a projection with risk reward attached to every pick.A great poker player does not win every hand.  A great poker player knows which hands have the most chance of winning and those are the hands he invests in.  Warren Buffet doesn't hit on every stock, but he analyzes and picks a few that have the most potential reward relative to the risk.A GM doesn't hit on every pick.  But he does his best and in the long run, if you are good, you assemble a roster with more talent than the others.Only a few players each year are NFL ready in college.  Most you hope will progress and be able to play in the big league.  Clowney this year is a great example.  I don't think he is going to make it, I think he will bust.  I don't get the sense he loves football enough to succeed.  But would I draft him No. 1 overall?  HELL YES!   The guy is unbelievable.  If he does succeed, you have a first ballot HOF.  He can be that good.  Although the odds are against him, the upside only comes around once a decade or so.  So you take the plunge and hope it clicks for him.  If he fails, it doesn't mean you failed as a GM.  If Buffet misses on a stock, it doesn't mean he errored.  There are too many variables - nothing is a sure thing.  So you balance as best you can - risk vrs reward and hope for the best.</blockquote>

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