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Where is the Value?

Discussion in '2011 Draft Archive' started by DCEBB2011, Jan 28, 2011.

  1. DCEBB2011

    DCEBB2011 Cheesehead

    Joined:
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    This offseason you will hear plenty about getting value for your draft picks. In other words, getting good players in the rounds they are graded out at...or better. Case in point: Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers had a top 5 grade that year and fell to #24 in 2005. He is an example of great value for that pick at #24. The Packers received a top 5 prospect without having to get into the top 5 to get him. An example of the opposite? Brandon Jackson. He had a late 3rd/early 4th round grade in 2007 and was selected in the 2nd round and has underwhelmed most Packer fans.

    The bottom line is value is important. You want to maximize value as much as you can. So, for 2011, where does the value lie? Well there are several ways to analyze that. One of the most complete ways is to determine how many prospects have draftable grades at a given position. This can also be compared to the average number at that position were drafted in recent draft history. You can also measure the number of first-round prospects at a given position to gain some idea on how top heavy the draft is at certain positions.

    First, let's look at the number of first sure-fire round prospects according to our info at NFLdraftscout.com.

    QB: 2
    RB: 2
    FB: 0
    TE: 0
    WR: 2
    C: 0
    OG: 0
    OT: 2
    K: 0
    DE: 4
    DT: 2
    OLB: 2
    ILB: 0
    CB: 2
    FS: 0
    SS: 0
    P: 0
    LS: 0
    Total: 18

    Now I know what you are thinking: "How can you only have 18 guys as sure-fire first round prospects if there are 32 first round picks?". The answer is that there are also prospects who are down a level from these 18 and are considered as 1st round/2nd round tweeners. They are given the late 1st round/early 2nd round talents. If you include these players, the numbers change:

    QB: 4
    RB: 3
    FB: 0
    TE: 1
    WR: 4
    C: 0
    OG: 2
    OT: 5
    K: 0
    DE: 7
    DT: 4
    OLB: 4
    ILB: 1
    CB: 5
    FS: 0
    SS: 0
    P: 0
    LS: 0
    Total: 40

    Based on the first round talents, DE (7) is particularly deep at the top this year. That is followed by OT and CB with 5 prospects each. Now if you want to see how the overall draft worthy prospects check out, then look at this list. The last 5 year average is in parentheses:

    QB: 15 (12)
    RB: 25 (17)
    FB: 8 (5)
    TE: 18 (16)
    WR: 39 (33)
    C: 10 (7)
    OG: 18 (13)
    OT: 23 (22)
    K: 5 (2)
    DE: 25 (20)
    DT: 25 (21)
    OLB: 26 (22)
    ILB: 15 (12)
    CB: 32 (30)
    FS: 13 (11)
    SS: 12 (9)
    P: 5 (2)
    LS: 1 (.5)
    Total: 315 (254.5)

    This chart shows that although top heavy, OT and CB are not especially deep overall, while DE is consistently deep throughout the draft. This draft is deep at RB, WR, OG, and DE in particular, however, so if you want one of those positions, you don't have to get one early.
     

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