Where does Thompson rank as far as GMs go?

[ivo610]

I saw a little debate about this online. Where does Thompson rank in comparison with the rest of the league? Top 5 for me.

You might argue SF has build a better team. But they didnt win a SB. Balt won but that team is about to be wrecked with salary cap problems. I wouldn't swap players and situations with them.

 

[adambr2]

I agree definitely top 5. We are in it every year and every season we can realistically feel like we have a chance to win the Super Bowl. Not really sure you can ask for more.

I also think SF has a better team right now but that doesnt mean they will in 2 years. Right now we've got a track record of sustained success. Trade injury luck with them this last season and we might be having a different conversation.

 

[HyponGrey]

Top 5, possibly top 3, but top 5 to be sure.

 

[longtimefan]

Baltimore should been in the SB 2 years in a row and was in the AFC Champ game 3 times in last 5 years...They WERE doing it right...But yes they will be paying for it now.


Ted is in top 5...If they wouldnt have made the SB, I think he would have been let go..

 

[AmishMafia]

Top (any order)
Ozzie - Ravens
Thompson - Packers
49ers - Baalke

Next tier
Texans
Atlanta
Seattle


Bottom
Jerry Jones

 

[BorderRivals.com]

Agreed. And the thing with SF that gets lost is they have built their team with a ton of high first-round draft picks. They've been bad for so long, and then once they hired Harbaugh, things finally changed. But, by that time, they've accumulated top-end talent through year-after-year top draft choices: 3 of their OL, Alex Smith (whatever that's worth), Crabtree, VD, Aldon Smith, and Patrick Willis. Admittedly, they've also hit on some later picks like Bowman, Goldshon (sp?), and in free agency with J. Smith, Rogers, and the DB from Buff. (whose name I'm drawing a blank on). Long story longer, they've been in a position to get good for a while and are just now reaping the benefits.

On the flip side, Packers have had only a few top-end draft picks, consistently picking in the later stages of the draft, and have still built a very good team top-to-bottom. For that, I give the edge to TT.

I'm also glad no one has fallen for the trap of claiming Belichek should be up there. He's ruined the last half of Brady's career by countless whiffs in drafting a secondary. Not to mention that TT trade-***** him last year when TT moved up to get Hayward!

 

[El Guapo]

Top 5 for two reasons:
1) He doesn't waste money in the free market. He could be more open to it, but I'd rather be more conservative than waste cash
2) He is arguably the best personnel man that we've had since the Lombardi era - better than Wolf

I think that Kevin Colbert of the Steelers needs to be in the Top 5 list as well, not just the teams that went deep into the playoffs in 2012...that's a short-term look

 

[TJV]

I would say certainly top 5 for Thompson and that's probably the consensus around the league as well.

The point about the 49ers being bad for several years accumulating those high draft picks is well taken. What do you suppose Packers boards like this would look like if they Packers mirrored the 49ers' records while they were accumulating talent? A lot of focus is on picks early in the first round but when a team sucks for several years, they of course get early picks in every round. If you know what you're doing, that can make a big difference. In any event you have to give them credit for being smart in exercising those picks unlike Detroit, for example. The bad news for us is the 49ers have 14 picks in the upcoming draft and a backup QB they can turn into a high pick or picks.

Loved the Jerry Jones mention at the bottom. I don't know if he's absolutely the worst but close enough and for a long, long time. Seldom is a huge ego "rewarded" so publically and definitively - I wonder if he could go back in time if he would be glad to have given Jimmy the lion's share of the credit for the 'boys success in order to keep him on board? Even with the benefit of hindsight perhaps his ego just couldn't go there and he'd sacrifice the success of his beloved franchise on its alter all over again.

BTW, we can also thank Mr. Belichick for trading the 26th pick in the first round of the 2009 to the Packers. I'm sure the Pats couldn't have used Clay in their defense anyway. Seriously I'm glad Belichick is one of the willing trading partners for Thompson. It takes two to tango and we'll never know all the players Thompson targeted and just couldn't find a dance partner.

2) He is arguably the best personnel man that we've had since the Lombardi era - better than Wolf

Well that was a stake to my heart! The perfect setup to mention the great Jack Vainisi and all we get is "since the Lombardi era". That's it! Vainisi gets no respect! I'm outta here!

 

[Bensalama21]

Before I clicked on the post I was thinking top 5... You could probably be safe to say Jerry Jones isn't in the top 10 ... But TT could be close to #1, top 3 for sure.

 

[rodell330]

This is hard for me to answer because i think we were a few players away from making the SB but TT didn't pull the trigger. Maybe 5 but he's cheap.

 

[texaspackerbacker]

5 - 7 years ago, tons of people were extremely negative in forums about Thompson. I defended him moderately then because I liked the idea of not wasting big money on other team's free agents. Since then, Thompson has gotten a lot more popular. Why? Basically because he got unbelievably lucky drafting Aaron Rodgers and only slightly less lucky drafting Clay Mathews. He also has done very well, of course, picking up gems from the scrap heap. I'm not sold on TT as being a great GM, however. I have to ask two questions: Where would the Packers be without Aaron Rodgers? Answer: very near the bottom. Would the Packers be better off if TT was not such a penny pincher in terms of free agents? That answer is kinda speculative, but I think we'd be significantly better off.

 

[ivo610]

Where would the Packers be without Aaron Rodgers? Answer: very near the bottom.

How is this any different than the Saints, Pats, Falcons, Giants?

 

[BorderRivals.com]

5 - 7 years ago, tons of people were extremely negative in forums about Thompson. I defended him moderately then because I liked the idea of not wasting big money on other team's free agents. Since then, Thompson has gotten a lot more popular. Why? Basically because he got unbelievably lucky drafting Aaron Rodgers and only slightly less lucky drafting Clay Mathews. He also has done very well, of course, picking up gems from the scrap heap. I'm not sold on TT as being a great GM, however. I have to ask two questions: Where would the Packers be without Aaron Rodgers? Answer: very near the bottom. Would the Packers be better off if TT was not such a penny pincher in terms of free agents? That answer is kinda speculative, but I think we'd be significantly better off.

How'd the Packers get lucky by drafting A-Rodg? Selecting Rodgers was an incredibly gutsy call by TT. Not only did 22 other teams have the chance to select him (Vikes had two cracks at him in fact), but Favre was still playing at a high level at the time. Plus, it was TT's first ever selection. So, for him to stick to his BPA philosophy in his first draft with a legend already at that position, shows a strong GM in my opinion.

Similarly, TT traded up to get Clay. That isn't luck. That is a GM making a move to get a guy he wanted. And at the time, Clay wasn't considered a first round pick. In fact, he was taken ahead of the much more acclaimed teammate Maululaga (sp???).

And remember, TT signed Woodson, Pickett, and Tramon as free agents. Of course there are free agents that he could have made to make the team better, but there are also plenty of examples where free agent spending has yielded terrible results - see Philly and Buffalo this year.

Finally, we are all forgetting TT's uncanny ability to get talented undrafted FA's: Moses, Barclay, Shields, Zombo (kind of - he did start in the SB - for what that's worth), DuJuan Harris, and Ross (and I'm probably forgetting some).

 

[BorderRivals.com]

How is this any different than the Saints, Pats, Falcons, Giants?

Totally agree... making such a statement is rather preposterous. This is a QB-driven league. Without a QB, teams suck. The fact he selected Rodgers when he did speaks volumes about the kind of GM TT is, as I detailed in the previous post.

 

[ivo610]

How'd the Packers get lucky by drafting A-Rodg? Selecting Rodgers was an incredibly gutsy call by TT. Not only did 22 other teams have the chance to select him (Vikes had two cracks at him in fact), but Favre was still playing at a high level at the time. Plus, it was TT's first ever selection. So, for him to stick to his BPA philosophy in his first draft with a legend already at that position, shows a strong GM in my opinion.

Similarly, TT traded up to get Clay. That isn't luck. That is a GM making a move to get a guy he wanted. And at the time, Clay wasn't considered a first round pick. In fact, he was taken ahead of the much more acclaimed teammate Maululaga (sp???).

And remember, TT signed Woodson, Pickett, and Tramon as free agents. Of course there are free agents that he could have made to make the team better, but there are also plenty of examples where free agent spending has yielded terrible results - see Philly and Buffalo this year.

Finally, we are all forgetting TT's uncanny ability to get talented undrafted FA's: Moses, Barclay, Shields, Zombo (kind of - he did start in the SB - for what that's worth), DuJuan Harris, and Ross (and I'm probably forgetting some).

I'll throw in there trading for Ryan grant.

 

[metallicblaze]

Definitely top 5. The late Al Davis is another mention for the bottom of the pile.

 

[ivo610]

Definitely top 5. The late Al Davis is another mention for the bottom of the pile.

at his best he was as good as anyone. A brilliant ftball mind that had a hand in some of the best football moves the game has ever seen. I hope his legacy isnt impacted too much by the last 7 yrs

 

[El Guapo]

Well that was a stake to my heart! The perfect setup to mention the great Jack Vainisi and all we get is "since the Lombardi era". That's it! Vainisi gets no respect! I'm outta here!

Actually, I was your setup guy. In fact I was specifically thinking that you'd comment to mention that it was Vainisi!

 

[El Guapo]

I'll throw in there trading for Ryan grant.

Let's not forget some other shrewd draft day moves by TT:

• In 2007, TT traded Javon Walker to the Broncos for several picks that were parlayed into several more low rounders. Who did TT get in exchange for Walker? He drafted Daryn Colledge, Will Blackmon, Johnny Jolly, and Ingle Martin. While Martin never amounted to anything and Blackmon was hampered by injuries, Colledge was a good OL and Jolly was a standout DL
• Also in the 2007 draft, TT traded down in the 2nd round with his pal Bill Belichik. Giving up the #36 pick, he used the #52 pick to draft Greg Jennings and the #78 to draft Jason Spitz
• Trading away the first pick in 2008 to the Jets for their 2nd & 4th rounders. The 2nd round pick was used to get a player named Jordy Nelson. The 4th round pick was packaged with a 5th round pick back to the Jets in order to select DE Jeremy Thompson higher in the 4th round. That was a pretty good pick too except Thompson's career ended very early due to a neck injury. In fact, TT also drafted Finley, Sitton, and Flynn along with trading the 6th round pick for Ryan Grant. Pretty awesome drafting
• In 2009, one of the things often forgotten about drafting Clay Matthews was that TT bundled the 3rd round pick received from the Jets in the Brett Favre trade. So that's a way to look on the bright side of the whole Favre debacle!
• It's also worth noting that in 2010, Favre again bolstered the Packers defense when TT convinced the Jets to relinquish their rights to TT's 7th round pick in 2010 in exchange for the Packers relinquishing rights to future picks. Long story short, TT got his 7th round pick back from the Favre deal and drafted run-stopping CJ Wilson. Wilson may not be an absolute stud, but definitely a winner as a 7th rounder
• In 2011, TT traded his 4th & 7th round picks to Denver for their 5th & 6th round picks. He used those to select tight end DJ Williams and linebacker DJ Smith. Still with a compensatory 4th round pick from losing Aaron Kampman, TT selected Davon House two picks later than had he kept the 4th round pick that he sent to Denver. That's effective use of your 4th, 5th, & 6th round picks
• One of TT's most impressive drafts was 2010, since many are starters and all have been solid contributors: Bryan Bulaga (1st), Mike Neal (2nd), Morgan Burnett (3rd), Andrew Quarless (5th), Marshall Newhouse (5th), James Starks (6th), CJ Wilson (7th)

Ted's only weakness seems to be in finding those low-level trades to plug gaps. Wolf was pretty good at finding those guys but not as good as TT at drafting. I could go on but it's bed time.

 

[adambr2]

5 - 7 years ago, tons of people were extremely negative in forums about Thompson. I defended him moderately then because I liked the idea of not wasting big money on other team's free agents. Since then, Thompson has gotten a lot more popular. Why? Basically because he got unbelievably lucky drafting Aaron Rodgers and only slightly less lucky drafting Clay Mathews. He also has done very well, of course, picking up gems from the scrap heap. I'm not sold on TT as being a great GM, however. I have to ask two questions: Where would the Packers be without Aaron Rodgers? Answer: very near the bottom. Would the Packers be better off if TT was not such a penny pincher in terms of free agents? That answer is kinda speculative, but I think we'd be significantly better off.

To me, its not that simple. You can take any elite starting QB off his team and of course that team becomes significantly worse. If Rodgers would have never been drafted, TT would have looked for our franchise QB elsewhere. Who's to say that Flynn wouldn't have been very successful in this system? Maybe not at the level of Rodgers, but maybe similar to a guy like Flacco or Romo. What did he have, 10 TD's in 2 career starts for us? I'm not saying he could have put up those kinds of numbers every week, but there was nothing to indicate that he wouldn't have been successful if he would have ended up being the guy.

We wouldnt simply have Graham Harrell starting right now, I can promise that.

While we are rewriting history, there's also a pretty good chance that Favre would have stuck around for 2 or 3 more years here if there was no viable replacement on the roster already. Too many variables IMO to simply say that we would be a disaster right now if we wouldn't have gotten Rodgers.

 

[texaspackerbacker]

How'd the Packers get lucky by drafting A-Rodg? Selecting Rodgers was an incredibly gutsy call by TT. Not only did 22 other teams have the chance to select him (Vikes had two cracks at him in fact), but Favre was still playing at a high level at the time. Plus, it was TT's first ever selection. So, for him to stick to his BPA philosophy in his first draft with a legend already at that position, shows a strong GM in my opinion.

Similarly, TT traded up to get Clay. That isn't luck. That is a GM making a move to get a guy he wanted. And at the time, Clay wasn't considered a first round pick. In fact, he was taken ahead of the much more acclaimed teammate Maululaga (sp???).

And remember, TT signed Woodson, Pickett, and Tramon as free agents. Of course there are free agents that he could have made to make the team better, but there are also plenty of examples where free agent spending has yielded terrible results - see Philly and Buffalo this year.

Finally, we are all forgetting TT's uncanny ability to get talented undrafted FA's: Moses, Barclay, Shields, Zombo (kind of - he did start in the SB - for what that's worth), DuJuan Harris, and Ross (and I'm probably forgetting some).

I'll concede most of what you are saying. Just the same, overall TT hasn't been that great on early round picks. The luck was that Rodgers fell to the Packers - and that he turned out so great when many other highly drafted QBs don't. Maybe it was a genius move to draft him - or maybe just doing the obvious at that point in the draft. I don't have anything against Thompson, just that a few more strategic FA pickups might give us a more solid O Line, D Line, etc. Imagine Rodgers with the kind of blocking Brady or Brees get.

 

[adambr2]

Statistically, Rodgers has had the same amount of time in the pocket before first contact/hit as Brady in the last few years and more than Brees. Just saying.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Statistically, Rodgers has had the same amount of time in the pocket before first contact/hit as Brady in the last few years and more than Brees. Just saying.

We need to know how this is measured.

For example, if the QB throws a quick timing pass, what's the "time in the pocket" recorded for that play? You'd think it must be the time from snap to release...anything else is just guessing. If that's the case, QBs who throw lots of timing passes and check downs (Brees, Brady) will have a deceptively lower time-in-the-pocket number.

While we can talk about Rodgers holding the ball and eschewing the check down, which has some merit, the argument that Rodgers works in the same kind of pockets as Brees and Brady does not pass the eye test. While our C/G's have not given up an outrageous number of sacks/pressures, they give up a lot of ground in pass protection. I don't know if this is a function of the scheme or the personnel, but it seems to me Rodgers was working with one of the smallest front halves of the pocket in the league this past season.

 

[El Guapo]

Just the same, overall TT hasn't been that great on early round picks.

I don't know where you draw this conclusion from, but it's not backed up by facts. I don't know what you consider great, but let's just use Ron Wolf as an example. TT has drafted better than Wolf in all of the first four rounds, but Wolf drafted slightly better in the 5th and 6th rounds. Here is a quick example. In the first round here are the picks:

Wolf's 1st Round Successes:
Wayne Simmons
George Teague
Aaron Taylor
Craig Newsom
Ross Verba
Vonnie Holiday
Bubba Franks

Wolf's 1st Round Busts:
Terrell Buckley
John Michels
Antoine Edwards
Jamal Reynolds

Thompson's 1st Round Successes:*
Aaron Rodgers
AJ Hawk
BJ Raji
Clay Mathews
Bryan Bulaga

Thompson's 1st Round Busts:*
Justin Harrell

* It isn't prudent to include the last two drafts, as because there is not enough evidence to support a conclusion either way.

Wolf's 1st Round Success Rate = 64% (7/11)
Thompson's 1st Round Success Rate = 83% (5/6)



Wolf's 2nd Round Successes:
Darren Sharper - DB
Mike Wahle - OL
Chad Clifton - OL
Robert Ferguson - WR (debatable)

Wolf's 2nd Round Busts:
Mark D'Onofrio - LB
Derrick Mayes - WR
Fred Vinson - CB


Thompson's 2nd Round Successes:
Nick Collins - S
Daryn Colledge - OL
Greg Jennings - WR
Brandon Jackson - RB
Jordy Nelson - WR

Thompson's 2nd Round Busts:
Terrence Murphy - WR
Brian Brohn - QB
Pat Lee - CB

2010 pick Mike Neal excluded, due to multiple injuries. Would have been considered a bust but finally started to contribute in 2013. Status unknown. Surely you could include Randall Cobb at this point, but I'm holding the line on including anyone from the previous two drafts.

Wolf's 1st Round Success Rate = 57% (4/7)
Thompson's 1st Round Success Rate = 75% (6/8)

I admit that the rating of a "success" or "bust" is subjective but in general are on target. You'll never please everyone, but I generally go with whether a player was a solid contributor to the team, regardless of draft position. I view it as you get seven picks in each draft and the goal is to draft 7 contributors. You will spend the same amount of money no matter which picks perform and don't perform (draft position), so the goal is quantity of successes.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don't know where you draw this conclusion from, but it's not backed up by facts. I don't know what you consider great, but let's just use Ron Wolf as an example. TT has drafted better than Wolf in all of the first four rounds, but Wolf drafted slightly better in the 5th and 6th rounds. Here is a quick example. In the first round here are the picks:

Wolf's 1st Round Successes:
Wayne Simmons
George Teague
Aaron Taylor
Craig Newsom
Ross Verba
Vonnie Holiday
Bubba Franks

Wolf's 1st Round Busts:
Terrell Buckley
John Michels
Antoine Edwards
Jamal Reynolds

Thompson's 1st Round Successes:*
Aaron Rodgers
AJ Hawk
BJ Raji
Clay Mathews
Bryan Bulaga

Thompson's 1st Round Busts:*
Justin Harrell

* It isn't prudent to include the last two drafts, as because there is not enough evidence to support a conclusion either way.

Wolf's 1st Round Success Rate = 64% (7/11)
Thompson's 1st Round Success Rate = 83% (5/6)



Wolf's 2nd Round Successes:
Darren Sharper - DB
Mike Wahle - OL
Chad Clifton - OL
Robert Ferguson - WR (debatable)

Wolf's 2nd Round Busts:
Mark D'Onofrio - LB
Derrick Mayes - WR
Fred Vinson - CB


Thompson's 2nd Round Successes:
Nick Collins - S
Daryn Colledge - OL
Greg Jennings - WR
Brandon Jackson - RB
Jordy Nelson - WR

Thompson's 2nd Round Busts:
Terrence Murphy - WR
Brian Brohn - QB
Pat Lee - CB

2010 pick Mike Neal excluded, due to multiple injuries. Would have been considered a bust but finally started to contribute in 2013. Status unknown. Surely you could include Randall Cobb at this point, but I'm holding the line on including anyone from the previous two drafts.

Wolf's 1st Round Success Rate = 57% (4/7)
Thompson's 1st Round Success Rate = 75% (6/8)

I admit that the rating of a "success" or "bust" is subjective but in general are on target. You'll never please everyone, but I generally go with whether a player was a solid contributor to the team, regardless of draft position. I view it as you get seven picks in each draft and the goal is to draft 7 contributors. You will spend the same amount of money no matter which picks perform and don't perform (draft position), so the goal is quantity of successes.

Nice recap. However, I'd be inclined to put BJax in the "bust" column.