I'm not firmly on either side of this argument, but looked at the statistics and did some crunching of my own to make an informed analysis. For comparison, I looked at the other elite tight ends in the league of Gronkowski, Hernandez (injured in 2012), and Jimmy Graham. Maybe there are others that should be used for comps, so I'll let someone argue that point if desired. For Finley, I looked at 2009-2012 since he really didn't "emerge" until the 2009 season. Here is what I've found:
- Finley's receptions per target (otherwise known as drop rate) has been dropping the past two seasons. The elite tight ends seem to average 65-75% each season. Finley was phenominal in 2009 and his shorten 2010 season, averaging 77% and 81% respectively. However, he was only 59% last year which would be below average but back up to 64% this year. 64% gets him back to the low end of the elite TE average, but is below the precedent that he set in 2009 and 2010. It's not a giant concern except for that it's trending on the low end lately.
- Yards per catch are way down in 2012. Finley averaged 12.3, 14.3, and 13.9 yards per catch from 2009-11 but only 10.5 yards per catch in 2012. That speaks a bit to production that he's flirting with single digit numbers this season.
- For the next several stats, it should be noted that Finley does play with some elite receivers so he's got competition for the ball. Knowing that, he gets targeted 3 fewer times per game on average and general has 2 less receptions per game than his elite counterparts. That all said, he only has half of the total yards in 2012 that Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have thus far: 337 yards for Finley versus 562 for Graham and 748 for Gronkowski.
- Finley has only caught two TDs this season, one last week against the Lions and one in Week 1 against the 49ers. Gronkowski and Graham have caught 10TDs and 8TDs respectively compared to Finley's 2TDs. Again, it's hard to draw a conclusion due to competition for passes in the Packers offense, but Finley had 5TDs in 2009, 1 in his shortened 2010 season, and 8TDs last year.
- The good news is that Finley doesn't seem to fumble much. In fact, he has only fumbled twice in the past four seasons while his elite brethren average 1 fumble per season. He holds onto the ball quite well, which probably can be attributed to his size, strength, and big hands.
- The most perplexing stat that I found is regarding first downs. Finley averaged 2.2 first downs per game in 2009, 2.4 in 2010, 2.8 in 2011, but only 1.7 in 2012. While it's encouraging to see his numbers trending up the past several seasons, one could chalk up his low 2012 average as an anomaly. However, when compared to his elite counterparts, Finley is either not the go-to guy for first downs or not able to produce them. Either scenario is the opposite of what you'd expect for your starting TE. His elite counterparts have averaged 4.1 to 4.2 First Downs per game while Finley is firmly in the low 2 per game. That's double the first down production of Finley.
My analysis seems to show that Finley's drops aren't necessarily the issue people should focus on, but his yards, TDs, and 1st down production. Those defending Finley can certainly point to his drop ratio, his fumble ratio, and even his average long, which is commensurate with other elite TEs. No matter what, Finley's production is down in 2012 when his competition in the Packers offense has been injury-plagued. He should be making his name instead of being discussed in the manner that we are in this thread.