From Peter king
***
The Revis story.
First, kudos to CBS' Jason La Canfora for breaking the story that the Jets may trade Revis instead of paying him an ungodly sum to stay and anchor their secondary. That's good work by La Canfora.
I am categorically, adamantly opposed to the Jets trading Revis. I believe Woody Johnson will rue the day he trades the best cornerback -- a slightly risky tag, obviously, given that he's coming off October knee surgery -- regardless of how uncomfortable the Jets' salary cap fit is right now. You don't trade great players at vital positions in their prime. You never recoup the value.
In today's game, quarterback is the most important position, followed in some order by pass rusher, cornerback and left tackle. Given that we've just seen the most passes thrown in any NFL season, I'd say corner or pass rusher is now the second-most important position to fill. How good is Revis? I'll let my friend Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com expound on that right after this section. But in short, he's damn good. And while any knee surgery is a worry, there's no credible indication that he'll be significantly worse for wear in 2013 coming off ACL surgery. Heck, linebacker Thomas Davis of the Panthers tore the same ACL three times in three seasons -- in 2009, 2010 and 2011 -- and still played well in 2012.
Revis will be 28 on opening day next year. Two of the league's best five corners in 2012 were Champ Bailey, 34, and Charles Tillman, 31. There is no reason to suggest age will be an issue with Revis.
A couple of pieces of history here.
One: In 2007, when the Jets drafted Revis, they traded their first-, second- and fifth-round picks, 25th, 59th and 164th overall, to Carolina for the 14th pick. Revis was picked 14th. Carolina picked linebacker Jon Beason 25th and center Ryan Kalil 59th. Beason made three Pro Bowls in his first four seasons but has struggled with injuries since; Kalil has started 68 games since, and also has made three Pro Bowl teams. So if you're going to trade Revis, understand you're trading a player who cost you first- and second-round picks to acquire -- and if the Jets had hung onto the second-rounder, they could have turned it into a player at a need position like guard-tackle Marshal Yanda or defensive tackle Brandon Mebane. So it would be folly for the Jets, if they did the deal, to crow about getting first- and second-round picks in return; that's what they traded to get him in the first place.
Two: If the Jets trade Revis, they'll be putting a dagger through coach Rex Ryan's heart. In effect, barring an upset, they'd be firing him nine or 10 months early. They'd be saying to him, We know the most important thing to your defense is the cornerback position, and everything you do on defense is predicated on your corners holding up, but we're trading Revis anyway. After the Jets lost to Peyton Manning in the 2009 AFC title game, Ryan told GM Mike Tannenbaum he had to have more corners, and so the Jets traded a second-round pick to San Diego for cornerback Antonio Cromartie, then drafted cornerback Kyle Wilson from Boise State in the first round. Ryan always said Revis was the best corner he'd been around, but he needed more. And Tannenbaum went out and got them. History has shown the Jets overvalued Wilson, who is just a guy. Cromartie is good. Without Revis, it's a pedestrian secondary.
Now, about the money. Revis has a year left on his contract, provided he doesn't hold out, and he will want to be the highest-paid defensive player in the game. Currently, Chicago defensive end Julius Peppers makes an average of $15.3 million a year; Buffalo pass rusher Mario Williams averages $16 million a year. There is no doubt Revis is better at his position than Peppers or Williams is at theirs -- of course, assuming Revis comes back whole from his surgery.
You see I keep glossing over the surgery aspect for Revis. That's because knee surgeries are so advanced now that it's assumed the player will be able to return to the form of his former self. Adrian Peterson might have been better this year after a more serious knee surgery than Revis had; Wes Welker, in three seasons of cutting and sprinting since tearing his ACL and MCL, has averaged a league-high 109 catches per year. So although it has to be a concern, I don't think it should concern the Jets enough to scare them off from paying him.
If I were the Jets, I'd tell Revis he needs to show he's back to Revis form in the first, say, half of the season. Then I'd lock him up for five years, at $17 million per, in a deal where the guaranteed money will counter-balance the fact that the Jets are in cap trouble right now.
If the Jets choose to shop him, I have a feeling Denver football operations czar John Elway will try hard to convince owner Pat Bowlen that Revis would be the missing piece to a championship team. The Broncos are $14.2 million under the cap this morning, but that doesn't include the estimated $10 million they'd need to budget for free agent tackle Ryan Clady, who's a must-keep. That could be lower, of course, with a long-term deal for Clady. And they could save money by reworking Peyton Manning's $20 million cap number this year.
Andy Reid could be tempted with $17 million of cap room in Kansas City, and GM Trent Baalke in San Francisco could be a player too; the Niners will have significant money available when -- I presume -- they dump Alex Smith before April 1. And there are other teams that might be willing to give a first-round pick plus other value (maybe a third-rounder and a journeyman cornerback as well) for Revis. But remember, the compensation isn't just two picks and a player, or whatever ... it's also wrecking your cap in a flat-cap era for Revis, instead of the significantly more manageable money the fixed-cost high-draft choices now provide.
The Jets also need to make the decision on Revis in 2013. Why? They gave away the ability to franchise Revis when they negotiated the current contract, and so if Revis plays out this year, there's not only the reality of getting nothing in return for him if he walks in free agency. There's also the risk of Revis signing with New England. What's the position that has made Bill Belichick look like a dunce on recent draft days? Cornerback. And if Revis went on to play in New England, and play superbly, the fans would be coming to the Meadowlands with pitchforks and torches looking for owner Woody Johnson.
But I don't care what they'd get in return, unless someone (other than New England, a team the Jets obviously should do no business with) does something stupid like offer three first-rounders and a decent player. It won't be worth it. In this league, at cornerback, if you've got the best, you grit your teeth and pay the man.
***
The Deep End
Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'm able to look at one important matchup or individual performance metric in pro football through the keen eyes of PFF czar Neil Hornsby. This week, he examines how good Revis is, with the news that the Jets are examining whether to keep Revis or trade him before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in March 2014. Hornsby's report:
"If Darrelle Revis is a player in decline, I don't see it. It doesn't wash from a statistical point of view or on tape. Since 2009, the only season that anyone could legitimately say he wasn't the best corner in football was 2010, where despite clearly being hampered by injury, he still held up incredibly well. Even in 2012, if you extrapolate the very small sample of data, he would have led the league in most categories.
"Simply put, if you throw the ball at him it doesn't get completed. Since 2009, his ranking in completion percentage of balls targeted at him is first, first, second and first (though he had but 93 snaps in 2012). Additionally he doesn't give up big plays -- Revis has allowed only six touchdowns in his last 1,607 coverage snaps -- and consequently quarterbacks have no success throwing at him. The QB rating into his coverage since 2008 has been 32.3, 78.8, 45.6 and 6.3 in those four seasons ... but don't forget that 78.8 came in 2010, when he was playing hurt.
"For those who want to point to the decline of Nnamdi Asomugha since his move to Philadelphia, this is a completely different scenario. Before going east, Asomugha almost always played man coverage on the right side of Oakland's defense. Being the best player in a suboptimal secondary that never changed position, he could be avoided with ease and this allowed him to build a hugely impressive statistical resume. When he was asked to play different positions and more zone, Asomugha's failings became obvious. What makes Revis' resume all the more remarkable is that he almost always tracks the opposition's No. 1 receiver (even into the slot) and far more often than not shuts them down. His track record is remarkable."
Read More:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nf...ing-monday-morning-quarterback/#ixzz2JGqYVjqr