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What TT Gets Right and Wrong about FA
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<blockquote data-quote="El Guapo" data-source="post: 644241" data-attributes="member: 5830"><p>Free agency is like the stock market. Smart investors stay away from stocks that are the hot performers, they do their research and pick stocks <u><em>before</em></u> they become hot performers. When you buy something at its peak, you will more than likely experience its decline.</p><p></p><p>The NFL free agent market has many similarities. The best players often hit the market at their physical and statistical peaks. Part of this is due to how rookie contract lengths are now structured and part of this is due to players playing their hardest just before becoming an unrestricted free agent.</p><p></p><p>There certainly are lots of great examples of players that continue to peak and perform after becoming free agents. Reggie White is probably the best example in the Packers history. However, it's akin to playing against the house casino. You will eventually lose if you keep plucking prime FAs from the market. The salary cap ensures this outcome and history verifies it in teams such as the Redskins and most recently the Eagles.</p><p></p><p>The smartest way to play the FA market is to find the gems before they become good (Ryan Pickett), when they could benefit from a different system (Woodson), or when the market deems them to be Week 2 FAs meaning they aren't the cream of the crop (Peppers & Guion). TT gets this and is constantly looking for value. That's a great mindset.</p><p></p><p>Where I feel that TT gets it wrong is his aversion to jettisoning drafted players in favor of FAs. Mike Neal and Nick Perry are good current examples of this aversion. They can be good players but TT often can't push them aside fast enough in search of better replacements.</p><p></p><p>TT has an above average eye for players in the draft. I think that he recognizes that he has a below average eye for players in the FA market, and uses a stingy approach to keep from making costly mistakes. He and Russ Ball have done a great job of keeping the Packers in good cap shape, have been able to re-sign most of our top players, and keep the team competitive. I still don't see TT stepping out for a high priced FA in 2016 but would like to see him take a few more swings at value FAs. They won't play much worse than the drafted players they are replacing but could provide the upshot that this team needs each year.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="El Guapo, post: 644241, member: 5830"] Free agency is like the stock market. Smart investors stay away from stocks that are the hot performers, they do their research and pick stocks [U][I]before[/I][/U] they become hot performers. When you buy something at its peak, you will more than likely experience its decline. The NFL free agent market has many similarities. The best players often hit the market at their physical and statistical peaks. Part of this is due to how rookie contract lengths are now structured and part of this is due to players playing their hardest just before becoming an unrestricted free agent. There certainly are lots of great examples of players that continue to peak and perform after becoming free agents. Reggie White is probably the best example in the Packers history. However, it's akin to playing against the house casino. You will eventually lose if you keep plucking prime FAs from the market. The salary cap ensures this outcome and history verifies it in teams such as the Redskins and most recently the Eagles. The smartest way to play the FA market is to find the gems before they become good (Ryan Pickett), when they could benefit from a different system (Woodson), or when the market deems them to be Week 2 FAs meaning they aren't the cream of the crop (Peppers & Guion). TT gets this and is constantly looking for value. That's a great mindset. Where I feel that TT gets it wrong is his aversion to jettisoning drafted players in favor of FAs. Mike Neal and Nick Perry are good current examples of this aversion. They can be good players but TT often can't push them aside fast enough in search of better replacements. TT has an above average eye for players in the draft. I think that he recognizes that he has a below average eye for players in the FA market, and uses a stingy approach to keep from making costly mistakes. He and Russ Ball have done a great job of keeping the Packers in good cap shape, have been able to re-sign most of our top players, and keep the team competitive. I still don't see TT stepping out for a high priced FA in 2016 but would like to see him take a few more swings at value FAs. They won't play much worse than the drafted players they are replacing but could provide the upshot that this team needs each year. [/QUOTE]
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