What Kind Of Defense Do We Have?

[broguy]

People keep saying that "well it was only two big runs". Isn't that what big rushing days are all about? Not to mention, that theory completely leaves out the 7-51 or 7.28 yards per carry by Turbin. Also I think the score was limited mostly by horrid play of Cassel.

I'm not saying it is "The sky is falling time". But this isn't an aberration either.

Packers defense ranks

23rd in rushing yards per game allowed
Tied for 27th in yards per carry
and 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed

Eh...obviously big rushing days are built on the backs of big runs, but you're missing the bigger picture. Outside of Mcfadden's 2 carries for 95 yards, he had 7 for 16. Obviously it'd be better if those big runs didn't happen, but there's a huge difference between gashing a defense for a couple of big plays, as opposed to having sustained success against a defense throughout the game. Lacy's yards per rush (~5) were less than half of McFadden's (~12), but I think anyone would take Lacy's day over Mcfadden's (even Lacy's touchdown withstanding). McFadden couldn't get anything going outside of those runs, which is part of the reason he didn't get a ton of carries and a major reason we won the time of possession battle (by 15 minutes!). We had 15 rushing first downs to their 5. Hell, our defense gave up 11 first downs all game. That's pretty damn good it you ask me.

So, I'm in the camp that thinks there's definitely such a thing as a bend but don't break defense. Our defense may be susceptible to the occasional big play, but I think they've been fantastic over the last few games at limiting damage and keeping our team in some games. That's been reflected in our scoring defense stats.

 

[TJV]

Almost all of the Packers sacks came in the first 5 games. Since then I have been watching and the d line is not getting pressure.

You understand that on passing downs the d line consists of two players, and in base D it consists of three, right? The point is it’s not just the DL rushing the passer and if the pass rush completely fell off the table after the first 5 games their numbers wouldn't be in the upper third – some in the top 10 – of the league. The Packers D has much lower rankings vs. the run than pass, both in yards surrendered per game and average yards per rush.

 

[El Guapo]

I watched the first McFadden run again last night. Burnett was up on the line of scrimmage. The Dallas offensive line and TE did a fantastic job of blocking, including on Clay Matthews and Jake Ryan. Unfortunately we were in a single-high safety defense, they blocked it well, and Clinton-Dix took a terrible angle to make the tackle in the hole. It would have been merely a 5 yard gain. After that there was nothing but green pasture.

The other runs were again mostly about good blocking by Dallas and poor reactions by our defense. This is correctable stuff.

 

[JBlood]

People keep saying that "well it was only two big runs".

Yeah, and people said Arch Duke Ferdinand was a nobody. That was the 30th ranked rushing offense we "held" to only 8 yards/carry. Maybe it's correctable, but at this point I'm depending on the offense to find itself for the playoff run, or we'll be out of it early.

 

[broguy]

I watched the first McFadden run again last night. Burnett was up on the line of scrimmage. The Dallas offensive line and TE did a fantastic job of blocking, including on Clay Matthews and Jake Ryan. Unfortunately we were in a single-high safety defense, they blocked it well, and Clinton-Dix took a terrible angle to make the tackle in the hole. It would have been merely a 5 yard gain. After that there was nothing but green pasture.

The other runs were again mostly about good blocking by Dallas and poor reactions by our defense. This is correctable stuff.

Right, this is another important point in the big runs vs. sustained success argument. Two or three big runs are generally the result of correctable mistakes/play calls, whereas a consistent failure to stop the run is way harder to fix in-season.

 

[Un4GivN]

Eh...obviously big rushing days are built on the backs of big runs, but you're missing the bigger picture. Outside of Mcfadden's 2 carries for 95 yards, he had 7 for 16. Obviously it'd be better if those big runs didn't happen, but there's a huge difference between gashing a defense for a couple of big plays, as opposed to having sustained success against a defense throughout the game. Lacy's yards per rush (~5) were less than half of McFadden's (~12), but I think anyone would take Lacy's day over Mcfadden's (even Lacy's touchdown withstanding). McFadden couldn't get anything going outside of those runs, which is part of the reason he didn't get a ton of carries and a major reason we won the time of possession battle (by 15 minutes!). We had 15 rushing first downs to their 5. Hell, our defense gave up 11 first downs all game. That's pretty damn good it you ask me.

So, I'm in the camp that thinks there's definitely such a thing as a bend but don't break defense. Our defense may be susceptible to the occasional big play, but I think they've been fantastic over the last few games at limiting damage and keeping our team in some games. That's been reflected in our scoring defense stats.

How am I missing the overall picture? Overall in the season we rank near the bottom in every major statistical category for rushing defense.

Including rushing touchdowns...

 

[broguy]

How am I missing the overall picture? Overall in the season we rank near the bottom in every major statistical category for rushing defense.

Including rushing touchdowns...

I was talking more about the bigger picture in terms of why two big plays doesn't mean the defense had a bad day against the Cowboys (which is what you were implying). But the point plays out somewhat over the course of the season. Our run defense has allowed the 6th most big plays (10+ yds) in the NFL, but we rank almost exactly in the middle of the league in rushing first downs allowed. So those big plays are skewing the numbers and the run defense isn't necessarily as bad as it looks on paper (though I'm not suggesting it's good). But we certainly need to figure out how to limit those big plays by the time we get to the playoffs.