What if Rodgers gets hurt again....

[HardRightEdge]

Damnation, I was looking forward to the tarring and feathering. Some people spoil all the fun.....D`oh !

I'm sure somebody will provide a better opportunity before long. Alternatively, you could have proposed hide-strapping his *** to a pine rail and sending him up the Monon line.

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[Heyjoe4]

I’m a little surprised that some thought this was a dumb question. It’s not. If Rodgers goes down, so does the team.

Gluten decided to let the backup QB situation remain as is. That means Kizer and Boyle. I’m not naive and know quality backup QBs are rare. That said, I would like to see a veteran backup or former starter sitting behind Favre.

Kizer has proven that he’s Hundley by another name. I don’t know much about Boyle, but hope he’s given a lot of snaps in PS.

I don’t expect miracles out of a backup, but I do expect that they can keep the team at .500 if Rodgers goes out. I don’t have any faith that Kizer can do that. Where’s Ryan Fitzpatrick these days?

 

[Heyjoe4]

While that’s probably true, I didn’t say less than 15pts. Although looking at it I likely should’ve said <=20pts per game allowed. That would allow us to go .500 or above with a good backup IMO.

The point you made on a QB not wanting to come is actually a valid argument. But at $7M? Etc.. you might just be surprised who would show up.

The point about not having cap? It’s all about what you prioritize. I prefer having a better backup and I can look around the league and assure you I’m not alone in that camp. But it’s preference and philosophy.
btw our cap # increases by more than that $7-$9M annually, so I don’t regard that part as a reason not to have a really good backup if one was available. Of course I’d try to get one a little cheaper on a 2-3 yr deal etc.. such as 3yr/17M etc..

the whole point I’m trying to make is not arguing over 3M or 5M or 9M but I don’t want to split hairs and rather get someone we feel good about. A good starting LB is paid 15M a year, so I can see why folks don’t think a good backup QB would want to participate for 2-3M or whatever. I’d fully support drafting one every other year also as a third option to keep one in the pipeline.

I don’t believe we emphasize the value of having a adequate backup anymore. It’s not like we still have Favre and he’s on his 10th consecutive year without an injury. We’re largely a pass first team in a pass leaning trajectory NFL, but we get occasionally get caught with our pants down having ill prepared or backups that aren’t ready to shine.

Other teams are figuring this philosophy out and staying ahead of the injury curve. Injury protocols are sensitive and are becoming more and more part of the equation. We would all agree that QB is the most important position, yet we talk about depth for nearly every other position But QB. Nothing is going to matter if we put all our eggs in one basket and that basket drops.

It’s been a while since GB valued the backup QB position. That guy was probably Matt Flynn. That’s why they should draft a QB late. He either turns into a reliable BU, gets cut, or gets traded. In the meantime, he can keep the team at .500. Nick Foles was an aberration, and even that only lasted two years.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Kizer can move and he can throw the ball fairly well. A new offense might just show the fans a new QB in the same body. Hundley could move and throw the ball too but both have had trouble with the offense and I think much of it was created by inexperience in the passing targets. That was the achilles heal and what made the MM offense so hard to defend. When everyone was on the same page, it was very difficult to defend. But it took experience and playing time and time to get everyone there, you couldn't plug and play.

Other offenses i don't think are so read heavy at every level of the play so it's easier for newer, less experienced, or even less football savy guys to be productive enough. Though when a defense figures out all your tells, everyone studies that tape and your days as a high flying offense are over.

anyway, Kizer may just prove to be a decent back up in this offense.

Good point and I hadn’t thought of that. It IS a new system, and ideally, everyone improves from the last system. We’ll find out soon enough.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Where’s Ryan Fitzpatrick these days?

He's in Miami on a 2 year / $11 mil contract with a 2019 cap number of $5.5 mil. His competition for a starting job is Josh Rosen.

So, that contract would push the Packers up against their cap limit. Ryan Fitzpatrick would not have taken that money from the Packers anyway had it been offered because Ryan Fitzpatrick would know the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Rosen.

This is what happens to adequate vet QBs you would want as a backup--they go where the unproven young QBs are so as to have a better chance to play while getting paid accordingly. Fitzgerald has a decent chance of being Miami's opening day starter or starting later if Rosen is benched.

It’s been a while since GB valued the backup QB position. That guy was probably Matt Flynn. That’s why they should draft a QB late. He either turns into a reliable BU, gets cut, or gets traded. In the meantime, he can keep the team at .500. Nick Foles was an aberration, and even that only lasted two years.

I would not say the Packers particularly "valued" Matt Flynn. I'd say it was more a case of being pleasantly surprised, as with us fans, after the fact.

Flynn, a 7th. round pick, sat on the bench for 4 years on a cheap contract. Over that time, he was a cheap, unproven backup going 0-1 in his one start until the fateful last game of his 4th. season in 2011. With the #1 seed locked up, Flynn got the start and went off with a 6 TD game. Seattle then signed him in FA to starter money. He was a bust losing the starting job to Wilson as a rookie.

Flash forward to 2013. The Raiders cut Flynn on Oct. 7; the Bills then signed him on Oct. 14. There was a one week window where the Packers could have signed him while Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien were the backups. Flynn would have preferred Buffalo anyway even if the Packers saw him as upgrade. With the Bills #1 and #2 QBs injured, he would have had the chance to steal the job from the #3, Jeff Teul.

Flynn did not return to the Packers until after the Bills cut him just 3 weeks after signing him. And the only reason the Packers did so was because Rodgers and then Seneca Wallace were injured and they needed a backup to Tolzien. It was only when Tolzien sh*t the bed that Flynn had the only stretch of starts in his career starting 4 games, nearly all of a 5th., going 2-2-1. Flynn was damaged goods when the Packers signed him, busting out in Seattle, Oakland and Buffalo, with rumors of a dead arm. It was not a move out of love, rather desperation.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The point about not having cap? It’s all about what you prioritize. I prefer having a better backup and I can look around the league and assure you I’m not alone in that camp. But it’s preference and philosophy.
btw our cap # increases by more than that $7-$9M annually, so I don’t regard that part as a reason not to have a really good backup if one was available. Of course I’d try to get one a little cheaper on a 2-3 yr deal etc.. such as 3yr/17M etc..

Other teams are figuring this philosophy out and staying ahead of the injury curve. Injury protocols are sensitive and are becoming more and more part of the equation. We would all agree that QB is the most important position, yet we talk about depth for nearly every other position But QB. Nothing is going to matter if we put all our eggs in one basket and that basket drops.

There are only two backup quarterbacks in the league making $7 million a season in Bridgewater and Tannehill entering 2019.

The Packers need to find a decent backup QB on a rookie deal capable of winning some games if Rodgers is injured but definitely can't overpay for one.

I can be told repeatedly that having an adequate backup QB doesn’t work for a plethora of reasons, but I haven’t heard one solution to the fact that every time #12 goes down we look lost. This has been going on since Seneca Wallace days when we ran with 2 QB. I’m hearing lots of contesting the investing at backup QB backup, but ZERO solutions.

What’s the solution?????? I’m not looking for “can’t do it”. You guys are better than this.

The solution should be either to draft a decent backup or trade for one still on a rookie deal. The Packers did that with Kizer last offseason. Hopefully he will perform at a higher level in LaFleur's offense.

the Packers are barely playoff contenders WITH rodgers. without him, even for a short time, would kill the season. there's no cap for a vet anyway. best to save what's left for emergencies at other positions.

If Rodgers performs at an elite level this season the Packers might even be a legit Super Bowl contender as long as the defense improves as expected.

I've mentioned the team doesn't have enough cap space to sign a veteran backup quarterback.

It’s been a while since GB valued the backup QB position. That guy was probably Matt Flynn.

Gutekunst traded for Kizer last season, proving he puts value into the backup quarterback.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Patriots backups:

There are only two backup quarterbacks in the league Tannehill is only $1.9 mil in 2019 with no subsequent liability. Miami took making $7 million a season in Bridgewater and Tannehill entering 2019.

Tannehill is costing Tennessee only $1.9 mil in 2019 cap on the last year of his Miami contract with no subsequent liability.

https://overthecap.com/player/ryan-tannehill/717/

That $7 mil contract average does not reflect current realities, with Miami taking an $18.4 mil dead cap hit on that trade, absorbing prorated signing bonus against their cap. Tennessee gave up 4th. and 6th. round picks for the privelege of acquiring Tannehill plus a 7th. rounder. Mariota has missed one or more games to injury in each of his four seasons; Tennessee's cost adds up to a 4th. round pick and a little money for a one year insurance policy.

As you say, for all intents and purposes, Bridgewater's is being paid $7.25 mil for one year with a $3.25 mil cap charge in 2019. The voidable years in the contract for 2020 and 2021 don't count for much as a salary cap management gambit.

https://overthecap.com/player/teddy-bridgewater/2971/

Putting $7.25 mil in cash in Bridgewater's pocket was an inducement to keep him around rather that having him going to Miami, one rumored suitor who ended up going with Fitzpatrick @ $11 mil over two years to pair with Rosen. Brees is 40 years also with two voidable years on his contract after 2019. Bridgewater is an insurance move and a placeholder in substitute for using a high pick on a QB-in-training, a pick the Saints have not had the last couple of years. Theoretically, the Saints could decide to not resign Brees after 2019, absorb the $21 mil in Brees dead cap, and sign Bridgewater to a long term deal starting in 2020 with a big signing bonus deferring the cap hit on that deal past 2020. Then the beat goes on.

It might be worth noting Rodgers is not 40 years old.

 

[HardRightEdge]

So you think a back up QB that will never come close to Aaron Rodgers level would be money better spent than getting Zdarius or Amos? Or giving Adams an extension? Let Kenny Clark walk?

It’s not like homeowners insurance, that gets me a new house. It’s more like paying new home costs for a mobile home replacement to sit in your driveway

Perhaps a better way to look at it is whether a veteran backup QB could perform as well as Rodgers did last season on a gimped up knee. As unlikely as that outcome would be, he still only gets you to 6-9-1 with that roster.

The available cap (and then some when you look at the cap consequences in 2020 and 2021 of this offseason's FA signings) was applied toward not being a 6-9-1 team again (or worse with a vet backup).

If somebody can make a convincing argument that this is a 12-4 roster without Amos as you say, with his money going to an expensive backup QB, then spending that money on an expensive insurance policy migh have some merit. That argument would take a considerable stretch. Maybe next year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Tannehill is costing Tennessee only $1.9 mil in 2019 cap on the last year of his Miami contract with no subsequent liability.

https://overthecap.com/player/ryan-tannehill/717/

That $7 mil contract average does not reflect current realities, with Miami taking an $18.4 mil dead cap hit on that trade, absorbing prorated signing bonus against their cap. Tennessee gave up 4th. and 6th. round picks for the privelege of acquiring Tannehill plus a 7th. rounder. Mariota has missed one or more games to injury in each of his four seasons; Tennessee's cost adds up to a 4th. round pick and a little money for a one year insurance policy.

As you say, for all intents and purposes, Bridgewater's is being paid $7.25 mil for one year with a $3.25 mil cap charge in 2019. The voidable years in the contract for 2020 and 2021 don't count for much as a salary cap management gambit.

https://overthecap.com/player/teddy-bridgewater/2971/

You're right about Tannehill, I was actually only taking a look at average salary for quarterbacks.

With the Saints having signed Bridgewater to a specially structured contract that leaves not a single team actually paying their backup quarterback $7 million a season.

Quite a difference from what OldSchool is trying to make people believe.

 

[Pugger]

I would prefer the Packers to have a veteran backup quarterback as well but they didn't have a lot of cap space to work with to sign one this offseason.

Yes, we needed to address other positions with our cap so I have no issue with us not signing a vet. As was said above - if Rodgers gets hurt for any length of time we are screwed anyway...

 

[Heyjoe4]

With Green Bay not taking the back up qb spot seriously.. they will simply be doomed lol u think they would have fixed that problem after Rodgers injuries etc.. like it’s okay to spend a a little money on a adequate back up..

I agree Snoops. This year, they stood pat with Kizer and Boyle. After what we saw from Kizer in extended play last season, that’s a mistake I didn’t think Glute would make.

I understand the arguments that it’s tough to get a quality backup. It’s even tougher if you don’t try. I approved of Glute’s move last year to get rid of Hundley and acquire Kizer. But Kizer is another Hundley - great in camp and the PS, a deer in the headlights at showtime.

I thought they’d use a 7th rounder on a QB or even an undrafted FA. Not to be. And that may not be the answer, but standing pat, IMHO, is a mistake.

All we can hope for is that 1) we don’t need the services of a backup and if we do 2) Kizer shows us something different in LF’s system.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As was said above - if Rodgers gets hurt for any length of time we are screwed anyway...

That might not be true if the Packers had someone like Flynn as their backup.

I agree Snoops. This year, they stood pat with Kizer and Boyle. After what we saw from Kizer in extended play last season, that’s a mistake I didn’t think Glute would make.

I understand the arguments that it’s tough to get a quality backup. It’s even tougher if you don’t try. I approved of Glute’s move last year to get rid of Hundley and acquire Kizer. But Kizer is another Hundley - great in camp and the PS, a deer in the headlights at showtime.

I thought they’d use a 7th rounder on a QB or even an undrafted FA. Not to be. And that may not be the answer, but standing pat, IMHO, is a mistake.

All we can hope for is that 1) we don’t need the services of a backup and if we do 2) Kizer shows us something different in LF’s system.

The Packers signed Manny Wilkins as an undrafted free agent. It's unrealistic to expect him, another late round pick or UDFA to beat out Kizer for the job though.

Gutekunst made a move for a backup last season and it's smart not giving up on him after he was a second round pick only two years ago and gets a chance to play in a new system.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

What if Rodgers gets hurt again....

This is what happens when you put to many eggs in one basket.

 

[XPack]

This is what happens when you put to many eggs in one basket.

What? Big omelette? Get a bigger basket?

I'm eggcited for the new season!

 

[Terry Ott]

If Rodgers goes down, we're screwed. The idea of Favre coming back is a cross between comical and lunacy.

Not as big a problem today as it would have been a couple days ago. Hernan Perez cleared waivers. Clearly, according to some, he can play any position.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This is what happens when you put to many eggs in one basket.

It's close to impossible to adequately replace an elite quarterback no matter what. The only way is by a team getting lucky with a backup still on a rookie contract.

 

[gopkrs]

Or like the Eagles where a QB was probably downgraded because he was not coached or game planned properly after he had showed a lot of promise. Coaches need to be flexible and work with the talent they have by not having them play in a game plan totally unsuited for the player...any position. imho

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Talented QB's need talented players...smart coaches...talented scouts...and talented people calling the plays.
That's asking a lot from this Packer team with first year head coach and staff.

I'm ready for the season to start and will be watching with enthusiasm here in the sunshine state.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Or like the Eagles where a QB was probably downgraded because he was not coached or game planned properly after he had showed a lot of promise.

The Eagles were in a different situation with Wentz still being on a rookie contract allowing them to pay Foles several millions a year though.

 

[gopkrs]

The Eagles were in a different situation with Wentz still being on a rookie contract allowing them to pay Foles several millions a year though.

My point was that Foles had one or two very good seasons and then all of a sudden he got very ordinary. It seems that the offense changed during that time period and probably a different coach...and so he was just sitting there on the bench with talent that people wrongly assumed was a one season wonder. That can happen with players at many different positions.

 

[HardRightEdge]

for The Eagles were in a different situation with Wentz still being on a rookie contract allowing them to pay Foles several millions a year though.

Beyond that, folks seem to forget there was a slight whiff of bust surrounding Wentz after his 2016 rookie year. Foles was signed by the Eagles going into 2017 as performance insurance, in the event Wentz did not make the second year jump, as much as for the typical backup role as injury insurance.

The Eagles signed him for 2017-2018 to a 2 year, $11 mil deal with $7 mil guaranteed. That's at the high end among vet backups, in line with the kind of contract offered to performance insurance QBs. In this situation, or a similar one in this past 2019 free agent period, had the Packers offered more would the player take it? Unlikely. As with the Foles/Eagles situation the chance of starting in or order to get back on track to a starter contract would be more attractive.

Chase Daniel, then under contract with the Eagles, seeing the handwriting on the wall, asked for his release saying, "I can be a starter in this league." Daniel signed with New Orleans on a cheap one year deal for 2017 but his opportunity came in 2018, signing a 2 year / $10 mil deal in 2018 to back up Trubisky who, like Wentz, had the whiff of bust after his rookie year.

In both the Foles/2017 and Daniel/2018 signings, the mere fact those teams offered that money in itself were expressions of uncertainty regarding their franchise-of-the-future, attractive opportunities for these players to get back on the starter track.

After winning the Super Bowl, and the timing of Wentz's return uncertain coming off an ACL injury, the Eagles renegotiated Foles' 2018 year with an incentive laden deal, up to $15 mil according to one report. He probably earned a chunk of that incentive money starting the first two games, then the last three plus the two playoff games after Wentz suffered a stress fracture in his back.

Signing on with the Eagles as a performance insurance opportunity worked out for Foles even if for different reasons. Getting the opportunity to start and with a Super Bowl win under his belt, he ended up where he wanted to be, getting a 4 year / $88 mil deal with the Jaguars.

Daniel didn't get his opportunity, he's still with the Bears for one more season it would appear. At least he has a consolaltion prize: $6 mil cash money in 2019 in the form of roster bonus and salary with $3 mil guaranteed. The Bears can afford to keep him with that $6 mil cap number even if the performance insurance premium in that deal is no longer needed because Trubisky is on that cheap rookie deal.

The moral of the story is that journeyman QBs with perceived value in the free agent market will want to go where there is a rookie franchise-of-the-future or one of those second year guys who struggled as rookies as performance insurance. These guys want to start. That performace insurance premium and opportunity does not exist in Green Bay. Consequently, the Packers won't offer that premium, a situation further compounded by the "QB budget" expenditure and the cap space.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

As long as you are paying your #1 QB as much as the Packers and many other teams are having to do the same, its very hard to justify spending a lot of money on your #2 QB. Right now, in the Packers situation of being in a bit of a rebuild mode, I have no problem with being frugal on the backup QB position and hoping you hit with someone like Kizer, Boyle or Wilkins.

All that said, if I thought the Packers had a great chance at reaching the Super Bowl, I would gladly sacrifice someone like Tramon Williams to use that money to pay a journeyman with a lot of experience for insurance.

With the team that the Packers have right now, if Rodgers goes down for any length of time, the season is probably pretty much over anyway, no matter who the backup is.

 

[HardRightEdge]

My point was that Foles had one or two very good seasons and then all of a sudden he got very ordinary. It seems that the offense changed during that time period and probably a different coach...and so he was just sitting there on the bench with talent that people wrongly assumed was a one season wonder. That can happen with players at many different positions.

That's not what happened.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FoleNi00.htm

Foles went 8-2 as a starter in 2013 in his second season, replacing Mickael Vick, while putting up some gaudy numbers and making the Pro Bowl. He followed that with a 6-2 record as a starter in 2014, but with a sharp decline in productivity. He then broke his collarbone mid-season and was replaced by Sanchez. Chip Kelly was the coach in both seasons.

Going into 2015, with Kelly still at the helm, Foles sought an extension. Instead, Philly traded him to the Rams for Sam Bradford. The Rams gave Foles a 2 year extension @ $24.5 mil with $13.9 mil guaranteed. Foles productivity declined further, going 4-7 as a starter with a 69.0 passer rating. After the Rams drafted Goff, Foles skipped OTAs and asked for a trade. With an evident lack of interest anywhere in the league in taking on that extension in trade, the Rams cut Foles at the end of July. Foles then entered the journeyman backup phase.

Foles signed with the Chiefs on a one year / $1.75 mil deal to back up Alex Smith, reunited with his first NFL coach, Andy Reid, saying his love of football was reignited after he considered retiring. He played well but only briefly in a couple of games in relief of Smith, winning both.

The Chiefs did not re-sign Foles for 2017; they drafted Mahomes as their QB of the future.

Foles went on to the Eagles for 2017 to back up Wentz who had an underwhelming rookie year in 2016, with an different coaching staff than his first stint with the Eagles under Doug Pederson, the connection being Pederson was Foles QB coach in his 2012 rookie season. As noted earlier, the attraction for Foles may have been the chance to start if Wentz didn't make the second year jump under that 2 year / $11 mil contract as the best offer, or both. The rest is history with Foles truly remakable Super Bowl run in that RPO-based offense.

When a QB takes a team on a Super Bowl winning run, no matter how checkered his past, some team amoung the other 31 will have a serious interest, perhaps forgetting that the 2017 Eagles was one of the most talented teams, top to bottom, of the last decade. That serious interest turned out to be Jacksonville, taking a big gamble with that 4 year / $88 million contract. They don't have a vet backup either or that QB of the future on the roster having a bunch of inexperienced anonymous backups in camp. All eggs are in the Foles basket. I believe Jacksonville will regret this move. Maybe they would privately acknowledge this was an act of desperation. Or maybe wishful thinking? DiFillipo, the Eagles QB coach in 2017, is now the Jags OC. I guess we should expect an RPO-based offense? His other task is to keep Foles head on straight.

 

[gopkrs]

Wow HRE, you are a real Foles expert. I think he did another tremendous job last year in taking over and doing well in the playoffs. Hard to know if you think he did poorly in between very good play because of his attitude or because of the schemes he had play under. But he did make more money than I thought he did although he was just sitting around and not because of lack of ability. I disagree with you about Jacksonville. He will probably do very well now that coaches know how to use him and the fact that he probably is on a team with a great defense.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Wow HRE, you are a real Foles expert.

Not until just now. I believe Foles is a bit of a flake. The point is to illustrate that Foles was damaged goods when he went to the Eagles in 2017, not some obvious choice for a backup.

And again, he went there because of Wentz lackluster rookie year, the possibility of starting if Wentz didn't improve, and the Eagles paid him backup money in line with being a performance insurance backup.