Well-Rounded Prospects

[Dantés]

I had a thought the other day. I wondered what would happen in terms of hit rate if you reduced a board down to exclusively guys who checked the boxes in regards to film, athleticism, and production. Obviously it's common sense that if a guy has all three of those working for them, they're probably pretty good, but the problem is how do you quantify it? So what I propose to do it post lists of various prospects who meet all of the following criteria:

-A draft grade of 6.20 or higher from Lance Zierlein, or being ranked in the top 100 by Jeremiah, Brugler, or PFF (basically checking this box means that someone who has a reasonable idea of what they're watching thought you looked good on tape).

-A RAS of 8.0 or better.

-At least two years of minimum acceptable production (to be determined by position).

My contention isn't that these are the only guys we should draft, but I'm curious for future reference how strong the hit rate will be on these lists.

 

[Dantés]

Defensive Linemen (ED and IDL): Production defined as 7.5 or more TFL's in a season for edge players and 5.0 or more TFL's in a season for interior players.

Checked All Three:

-Aidan Hutchinson, ED, Michigan
-Kayvon Thibodeaux, ED, Oregon
-Jordan Davis, iDL, Georgia*
-George Karlaftis, ED, Purdue
-Nick Bonitto, ED, Oklahoma
-Sam Williams, ED, Mississippi
-Joshua Paschal, ED/iDL, Kentucky
-Travis Jones, iDL, Connecticut
-Isaiah Thomas, ED, Oklahoma
-Myjai Sanders, ED, Cincinnati

Missing RAS Data:

-Arnold Ebiketie, ED, Penn State
-Phidarian Mathis, iDL, Alabama
-Deangelo Malone, ED, W. Kentucky

Notables Left Out:

-David Ojabo, ED, Michigan (1 season of production)
-Jermaine Johnson II, ED, FSU (1 season of production)
-Devonte Wyatt, iDL, Georgia (1 season of production)
-Boye Mafe, ED, Minnesota (1 season of production)
-Travon Walker, ED, Georgia (1 season of production)

*I cheated Davis in on production; technically his highest TFL total prior to 2021 was 4.5

 

[tynimiller]

So essentially I do something similar initially when building my boards. From there though I really like to dig into the guys then that played in smaller schools, juco transfers, or limited years of production (Kevin Austin is an example from ND)

Then I usually circle back and really try to hone my lists with as much tape and measurables (RAS) while also one thing I note is their age. The younger of two guys that are close will almost always get my nod….Junior over RS Senior almost always for me if close.

Certain positions I also chart a specific metric - Tackles that arm length gets locked in and is a weighted thought for decisions - like if we’ve already taken a tackle that has the frame and length of tackle I may dip back into my tackle board for a guy with athleticism but shorter arms with the concept of sliding him inside (something Packers do routinely)

RBs are an enigma in that one year or production can be a great thing if behind a stud and they made do with that one year as well.

 

[El Guapo]

One thing that us fans will largely never know is about the in-person interviews. That can make such a difference to know the psyche, smarts, and attitude of each player.

 

[tynimiller]

One thing that us fans will largely never know is about the in-person interviews. That can make such a difference to know the psyche, smarts, and attitude of each player.

Cannot be understated, this is where the true separation can occur and at times is where some "surprises" can happen of guys falling or being picked "out of nowhere" I feel.

 

[Mondio]

I think it's more important than every to cultivate relationships all over the place. These guys prepare for the test. Sure some slip and the obvious cases get caught, but by and large I think it's more training to not screw it up than they get big insight.

You have to have people on staffs, on the ground, at schools who know the ins and outs of these teams and players. We can all see how they play, their measureables are, well measured. But attitude and focus, mental stamina, strength, what happens when you're not winning or the spot light isn't on you is more important than ever.
I think the interviews are probably the most important part at the combine with medicals, but at the same time, some people interview well despite them having crap to offer as an employee. It takes a skilled person to read through that stuff. I can get a pretty decent read on people working with them, but not much from an interview. Probably why my job isn't to interview people LOL

 

[El Guapo]

I can agree with that. When and if I interview people, they've already passed through the gates with their resume. Same at the combine. You've watched the tape and seen the measurables. Now talk to me. Let me see your personality, your knowledge, your understanding, your humor, etc.

 

[PikeBadger]

Cannot be understated, this is where the true separation can occur and at times is where some "surprises" can happen of guys falling or being picked "out of nowhere" I feel.

Tyni, What's your hit rate historically on who Gutekunst has actually drafted or signed as UDFA?

 

[tynimiller]

Tyni, What's your hit rate historically on who Gutekunst has actually drafted or signed as UDFA?

Oh geesh no clue.

We talking on prospects I like and think fit the Packers or hit rate of say my final two mocks right before the draft?

Either way I've never kept track. I do know I strongly supported the concept that if Stokes fell to us (I didn't think happens) Gute couldn't resist. He's the most recent...well him and I liked us to nab Cole Van Lanen

 

[Schultz]

You also touted Amari Rodgers.

 

[tynimiller]

You also touted Amari Rodgers.

I do believe Amari projects well when used right, and still believe there is going to be an above average slot receiver there for us to play with. I did share often he wasn't a pure WR IMO and was that hybrid RB/WR type guy is what I saw.

I didn't expect him to explode off the stat lines in his rookie year given the type of WR he was and uphill curve to a more pure role rather than some of the manufactured touches he got at Clemson.

I am still pissed when we traded up we didn't grab Nico Collins, whom I personally had a 1st round grade on that was picked 89th (Amari was 83rd)...oh well its passed and Nico is doing well already (446 yards once he got used and started in Houston). I suspect Amari will be much more comfortable this year, as I said especially on returns he simply looked uncomortable - way different than in college.

Who knows once two or three seasons have passed I could be proven completely wrong thinking he and MLF system was a match that would work - hope not but Lord knows I don't bat 100% on my takes LOL

 

[OldSchool101]

As I was going through the previous 6 or so drafts, I was surprised at how many times I crossed paths with a current pretty good starter that was selected outside top #50 but inside that top 100 area. It was arbitrarily prompted by me looking where Vince Biegel (acquired through trade back) was nowadays (I thought he was #101 but actually he was #109)

From a WR or O weapon (TE,RB) perspective here’s the entire list from that 2017 draft (#50-#100) and anyone that catches a ball for the Offense
#62 Ju Ju Smith-Schuster
#67 Alvin Kamara
#69 Kooper Kupp
#72 Taywan Taylor
#79 Ardarius Stewart
#82 Carlos Henderson
#84 Chris Godwin
#86 Kareem Hunt
#89 D’onta Foreman
#96 Kenny Golladay
#98 Chad Williams
#100 Jonnu Smith

There were a few misses, but as a group that was a fantastic place to grab a producer. That group produced 8 Probowlers.

As a comparison, just 1 Defender in those same (#50-100)parameters made a Probowl (Shaquill Griffin #90).

 

[KiDcUdI]

A receiver I really think is going to be a star is Alec Pierce. Not ot compare because hes a white receiver but him and Jordy have a lot in common. Same size. Sneakily athletic. Really good hands and runs good routes for a young receiver. His RAS was a 9.62 before everything became official and I was high on him before that. I would love to try and slide down out of the 1st and take him in a similar place we got Nelson-Adams. I believe we will see him become one of the best receivers in the league if paired with a good QB.

 

[tynimiller]

A receiver I really think is going to be a star is Alec Pierce. Not ot compare because hes a white receiver but him and Jordy have a lot in common. Same size. Sneakily athletic. Really good hands and runs good routes for a young receiver. His RAS was a 9.62 before everything became official and I was high on him before that. I would love to try and slide down out of the 1st and take him in a similar place we got Nelson-Adams. I believe we will see him become one of the best receivers in the league if paired with a good QB.

He and Christian Watson are both very similar in their size, abilities and athleticism. I am lower on Pierce than Watson and also prefer Pickens to him but that doesn’t mean I’d be said if we picked Pierce. For me he would be like AJ Dillon pick was, love the player but think second is early for him.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I’m not a big believer that interviews tell you that much. These guys, the expected high round picks, practice so much before interviews that i doubt you really get much. Unless a guy royally screws up, i don’t think you garner much from interviews. Everyone study has shown that in-person interviews for jobs are basically “barbecue tests” ( would the interviewer invite the candidate over for a backyard bbq) and, for the most part, detract from bringing in good candidates. I doubt NFL teams have discovered something that Fortune 500 companies are unaware of.

Look at what guys have done, look at physical traits, and look at circumstances. Short of telling a team they hate football or want to kill puppies, i don’t think interviews are that important. Now that i think about, wanting to harm puppies might be a positive for a linebacker.

 

[Poppa San]

My contention isn't that these are the only guys we should draft, but I'm curious for future reference how strong the hit rate will be on these lists.

What is the historical hit rate for these types of numbers? Say the 2017-2019 drafts. Players drafted, became starters, became bona fide elite for more than a season.

 

[Dantés]

Wide Receivers: Looking for guys here who are at least 5'10", 180#; who have a RAS of 7.5 or higher; who have at least one season of 750+ yards and 6+ touchdowns; who won't turn 24 during rookie season.

Qualified:

-Garrett Wilson, OSU
-Chris Olave, OSU
-George Pickens, UGA*
-Christian Watson, NDSU
-Skyy Moore, WMU
-Alex Pierce, CIN
-Jalen Tolbert, SAU
-Khalil Skakir, BSU
-Tyquan Thornton, BAY
-Kevin Austin Jr, ND
-Jalen Nailor, MSU
-Derek Wright, USU

Below Thresholds:

-Treylon Burks, ARK (RAS)
-Jahan Dotson, PSU (RAS)
-Justyn Ross, CLEM (RAS)
-David Bell, PUR (RAS)
-Bo Melton, RUT (production)
-Calvin Austin, MEM (size)
-Kyle Philips, UCLA (production)
-Wan'Dale Robinson, UK (RAS)
-Velus Jones Jr, TENN (Age/RAS)
-Danny Gray, SMU (RAS)

Missing RAS Data:

-Jameson Williams, UA
-Drake London, USC
-Romeo Doubs, NEV

*Pickens technically doesn't meet the production threshold, but everyone knows he would have if he had been healthy. He very nearly did it as a freshman in the SEC.

 

[gopkrs]

One thing that us fans will largely never know is about the in-person interviews. That can make such a difference to know the psyche, smarts, and attitude of each player.

Yes, I am sure that could be an important aspect. But most of all, I think the tapes are what tell the story and I imagine that pro teams have a lot more tape and a lot easier to find and watch and re-watch. And getting players on the radar, it has to be good to have scouts actually go to college games.