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Week 9: Packers in New England
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 797576"><p><strong><u>Matchup Stats Observations</u></strong></p><p><strong><u></u></strong></p><p>The stats indicate the only major matchup factor differentiating these teams other than home field advantage is red zone performance, suggesting the key to a Packer upset is either outperforming their season averages on offense and/or defense in the red red zone or NE underperforming, which are just two sides of the same coin. If these teams play to their season mean performances, these matchup breakdowns suggest a spread in the range of NE -8 to -9. I did not look at the betting line this week until right now. It started at -7 and now sits at -5. I suppose the drop is a result of NE O-Line injuries.</p><p></p><p>Other than red zone and home field, these teams playing to their mean performance to date is about a wash.</p><p></p><p><strong>Passer Rating - slight edge NE:</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>NE's good passer rating against would appear to give NE the edge. However, that's largly a function of the 11 INTs. Rodgers throws none in a typical game, thereby neutralizing the advantage. Brady's 7 picks in 8 games is uncharacteristically high, leading to a sub-100 passer rating. However, the Packers have not been very opportunistic in this regard while the guy accounting for most of their picks has been traded.</p><p></p><p><strong>Sacks - edge GB:</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>Quite the contrast. NE yields few and gathers few. The Packers are the opposite in like proportion. NE O-Line injuries should tip the balance toward the Packers</p><p></p><p><strong>Fumbles - slight edge NE: </strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>NE is -1, GB is -3. Over 7 1/2 games the 2 fumble advantage = 0.27 fumble per game NE advantage.</p><p></p><p><strong>Red Zone TDs - big edge NE:</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>NE has a 14% edge on offense and a 4% edge on defense for a net 18% edge. This is significant.</p><p></p><p>Let's say in a typical game each team gets 4 tries in the red zone, a total of 8. The typical result is either 7 or 3 points. The typical difference between 100% and 0% TD success for 8 instances is 56 - 24 = 32 points.</p><p></p><p>Having an 18% edge equates to 32 x .18 = 5.8 points. That ain't chicken feed.</p><p></p><p><strong>+20 Yard TDs - slight edge NE</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>Underperforming in the red zone can be offset by a propensity to score from long range, +20 yards. GB's differerential is -2. NE's is +2. However, 3 of NEs +20 TDs came on special teams and a pick 6. Non-offensive long play TDs are abberations. Of all these stats, non-offensive long TD past perferformance is least indicative of future results.</p><p></p><p><strong>3rd. and 4th. Down Coversions - slight edge GB</strong></p><p></p><p>The 3rd. down coversion matchup is a wash with NE 4% better on offense, GB 5% better on defense.</p><p></p><p>The Packers get a slight edge on 4th. down conversions chiefly on NE's poor 5 for 9 defensive performance. It's such a small sample size and the situation has arisen on an average of slighly more than once per game for these teams taken together. I'll give the Packers a slight edge on NE's poor performance.</p><p></p><p><strong>Rushing - edge GB</strong></p><p></p><p>GB's YPC of 4.8 YPC vs NE's 4.1 YPC, while both defenses are at 4.4 against, giving the Packers a meaningful 0.7 YPC edge.</p><p></p><p>NE gets 5% more first downs per rush, 1 per game relative to GB or NE attempts of 25 per game.</p><p></p><p>Net edge to GB.</p><p></p><p><strong>Penalties - edge NE</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>NE has a net +25.5 yards per game and a net +1.4 first down edges on penalties. This is meaningful.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 797576"] [B][U]Matchup Stats Observations [/U][/B] The stats indicate the only major matchup factor differentiating these teams other than home field advantage is red zone performance, suggesting the key to a Packer upset is either outperforming their season averages on offense and/or defense in the red red zone or NE underperforming, which are just two sides of the same coin. If these teams play to their season mean performances, these matchup breakdowns suggest a spread in the range of NE -8 to -9. I did not look at the betting line this week until right now. It started at -7 and now sits at -5. I suppose the drop is a result of NE O-Line injuries. Other than red zone and home field, these teams playing to their mean performance to date is about a wash. [B]Passer Rating - slight edge NE: [/B] NE's good passer rating against would appear to give NE the edge. However, that's largly a function of the 11 INTs. Rodgers throws none in a typical game, thereby neutralizing the advantage. Brady's 7 picks in 8 games is uncharacteristically high, leading to a sub-100 passer rating. However, the Packers have not been very opportunistic in this regard while the guy accounting for most of their picks has been traded. [B]Sacks - edge GB: [/B] Quite the contrast. NE yields few and gathers few. The Packers are the opposite in like proportion. NE O-Line injuries should tip the balance toward the Packers [B]Fumbles - slight edge NE: [/B] NE is -1, GB is -3. Over 7 1/2 games the 2 fumble advantage = 0.27 fumble per game NE advantage. [B]Red Zone TDs - big edge NE: [/B] NE has a 14% edge on offense and a 4% edge on defense for a net 18% edge. This is significant. Let's say in a typical game each team gets 4 tries in the red zone, a total of 8. The typical result is either 7 or 3 points. The typical difference between 100% and 0% TD success for 8 instances is 56 - 24 = 32 points. Having an 18% edge equates to 32 x .18 = 5.8 points. That ain't chicken feed. [B]+20 Yard TDs - slight edge NE [/B] Underperforming in the red zone can be offset by a propensity to score from long range, +20 yards. GB's differerential is -2. NE's is +2. However, 3 of NEs +20 TDs came on special teams and a pick 6. Non-offensive long play TDs are abberations. Of all these stats, non-offensive long TD past perferformance is least indicative of future results. [B]3rd. and 4th. Down Coversions - slight edge GB[/B] The 3rd. down coversion matchup is a wash with NE 4% better on offense, GB 5% better on defense. The Packers get a slight edge on 4th. down conversions chiefly on NE's poor 5 for 9 defensive performance. It's such a small sample size and the situation has arisen on an average of slighly more than once per game for these teams taken together. I'll give the Packers a slight edge on NE's poor performance. [B]Rushing - edge GB[/B] GB's YPC of 4.8 YPC vs NE's 4.1 YPC, while both defenses are at 4.4 against, giving the Packers a meaningful 0.7 YPC edge. NE gets 5% more first downs per rush, 1 per game relative to GB or NE attempts of 25 per game. Net edge to GB. [B]Penalties - edge NE [/B] NE has a net +25.5 yards per game and a net +1.4 first down edges on penalties. This is meaningful. [/QUOTE]
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