Week 9: Packers in New England

[PackAttack12]

Turnovers lose games, even though we are 6-2 this year despite all those INTs.

Here's what loses games - 77 passing yards at the pro level.

Good gracious how long are you going to base your entire argument on one game.

 

[sschind]

Are moderators allowed to remove this troll? Or do we have to live with it due to freedom of speech and all that junk? Rather yet, can we just ignore this poster? Clearly is not here to have civil discussion.

apparently not

 

[Alex]

You're talking about two different eras of football.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's a terrible metric to focus on. That includes TDs from a short field as a result of STs and turnovers, and it also negates to detail who was targeted in coverage. And "whopping" is a ridiculous claim.

The goal in football is to score touchdowns, therefore claiming its a terrible metric to focus is absolutely ridiculous.

BTW as I've mentioned repeatedly the Patriots secondary has been responsible for 16 of the 17 touchdown passes the team has allowed (D. McCourty 5, Gilmore 3, Jones 2, Rowe 2, Chung 2, Harmon 1 and J. McCourty 1)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Allison is doubtful for Sunday's game at New England. In addition the Packers listed Cobb, Perry and Whitehead as questionable.

 

[C-Lee]

MVS time baby!

 

[PackerDNA]

Allison is doubtful for Sunday's game at New England. In addition the Packers listed Cobb, Perry and Whitehead as questionable.

Perry. I'm shocked.

 

[Poppa San]

That's a terrible metric to focus on. That includes TDs from a short field as a result of STs and turnovers, and it also negates to detail who was targeted in coverage. And "whopping" is a ridiculous claim. It's only a couple of TDs more than other teams who have had good pass defenses this season.

You mean other team's defenses don't have to deal with short fields and turnovers against and who was targeted? At least you didn't play the injured card because a defender had a broken fingernail.
[mod hat = ON]
ABOUT the TROLL comments: Until the comments start to violate or even push the envelope of the posted rules, he is allowed to spew forth whatever drivel his Doritos stained fingers can create. We've had much more effective trolls in the past. Looks like this one just lost his training wheels. We will survive this too.
[mod hat = OFF]
Digging up past seasons results without mentioning the injury list or weather or even emotional off field issues is just skewing the facts.

 

[rmontro]

Many packer fans cite Starr's championships when determining the best QB in Packer history so why should it be any different with Brady. For the record I disagree with using championships as the main determining factor as football is a team sport like you said, but it is one of the factors.

I'm a huge Starr fan. It's amazing that he still holds the record for highest postseason passer rating. Of course, three of his five championships came before the Super Bowl era, so he'll never get the credit from some. For some people, those years practically don't exist, or don't really count.

I also don't agree with simply using championships to determine GOAT. Not even in individual sports, because so much changes from era to era (tennis especially).
But if you really want a claim to being the GOAT, I think you need multiple championships to back it up (even if that's unfair).
Like the Michael Jordan vs LeBron James argument: Jordan has six, but the fact that James has three is enough to put him in the conversation. If he only had one, I'm not so sure it would. Bottom line, Rodgers really needs to win one more, and preferably two.

 

[brandon2348]

The Patriots hugely benefitted from Jeremy Lane getting injured in the first quarter while intercepting Brady. The Patriots quarterback then took advantage of his replacement Tharold Simon, throwing two touchdowns into his coverage.

Cliff Averil got hurt as well and allowed them to double Bennett.

 

[BostonBlackie]

Patriots rule out two in final injury report for Week 9
12 hours ago
The Patriots have already ruled out two player for Sunday's primetime showdown with the Packers at Gillette Stadium. On Friday, New England released their final injury report of the week and ruled out starting right guard Shaq Mason along with backup lineman Brian Schwenke for Week 9, while ruling thirteen others as questionable for the contest.

As it relates to the two players ruled out, Mason is clearly the more impactful of the two. The right guard suffered the injury in Monday's win over the Bills and didn't practice all week, so him being ruled out for this game isn't entirely a shock. Now, this means that Ted Karras will in all likelihood get the start at right guard in-between center David Andrews and possibly right tackle Marcus Cannon.

The third year lineman has started three games in his NFL career thus far after the Patriots drafted him in the sixth round of the 2016 NFL Draft out of Illinois.

As for the Patriots who are questionable for this matchup, the most noteworthy addition to this group is receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, who was added to the injury report on Friday as he was limited in today's session due to a neck injury.

Rob Gronkowski was limited on Friday after missing Thursday's practice for what was reportedly just a maintenance day. While he's officially ruled as questionable for this matchup, Mike Giardi of the NFL Network reported on Friday that the team does expect the tight end to suit up and play against the Packers. On Monday against the Bills, Gronk was able to catch just three of his eight targets in the win for 42 yards.

Here's the full injury report for the Patriots:

RG Shaq Mason (calf) - OUT

OL Brian Schwenke (foot) - OUT

LT Trent Browns (ankle) - Questionable

RT Marcus Cannon (concussion) - Questionable

LS Joe Cardona (shoulder) - Questionable

WR Julian Edelman (ankle) - Questionable

WR Josh Gordon (hamstring) - Questionable

LB Nicholas Grigsby (illness) - Questionable

DL Geneo Grissom (ankle) - Questionable

TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle/back) - Questionable

LB Dont'a Hightower (knee) - Questionable

TE Jacob Hollister (hamstring) - Questionable

RB Sony Michel (knee) - Questionable

WR Cordarrelle Patterson (neck) - Questionable

DE John Simon (shoulder) - Questionable

For the third straight time this week, Sony Michel was able to practice in limited fashion, which seemingly bodes well for his chances to play against the Packers. The rookie back told reporters on Friday that if it were up to him he'd play, but will leave it in the hands of the coaching staff.

As for the Packers, it doesn't look like they'll have wide receiver Geronimo Allison on Sunday he was ruled doubtful for the matchup after missing Friday's session.

Here's Green Bay's full injury report:

WR Geronimo Allison (hamstring) - Doubtful

WR Randall Cobb (hamstring) - Questionable

LB Nick Perry (ankle) - Questionable

S Jermaine Whitehead (back) - Questionable

The Patriots and Packers will kickoff this Sunday Night Football matchup from Gillette Stadium at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-engla...-in-final-injury-report-for-Week-9-124131145/

 

[PackAttack12]

The right side of NE’s offensive line is vulnerable.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The right side of NE’s offensive line is vulnerable.

The Patriots offensive line doesn't feature an elite player. As a whole the unit is pretty good blocking for the run and they benefit of Brady getting rid of the ball quickly in pass protection.

 

[childerm]

Why are we even letting this troll run rampant on the forum?

Because it’s funny

 

[OldSchool101]

While overall NE is always a threat, the Brady led Offense was largely inconsistent this week. If not for Pats Defensive surge, the NE Offense graded out poorly scoring just 15 points all day.

In the 2018 head to head comparison:

Bills vs Packers

-GB put up 278 yards more than the Bills totals and the hobbled Aaron Rodgers led Offense totaled 428 yards with an average of 5.7 yards per play.

-GB averaged a respectable 5.7 yards per play
The GB Defense held the Bills to a paultry 2.6 yards/play total.

-The GB D came out with 7 sacks and left the Bills stunned with 145 TOTAL yards and scoreless, in one of the worst defeats in Bills history.

Patriots vs Bills

-The NE Offense struggled to outmanage the Bills Offense by just 54 total yards.

-NE Offensively scored just 15 points and had ZERO TD passes and reached the goal line just one time (rushing TD) all day with under 5min in the 3rd quarter. After that lone TD, the NE Offense never came close to seeing the goal line again.

-This week, the inconsistent 2-6 Bills actually put up a respectable 5.3 yards per play against the Patriots Defense. The NE Defense however redeemed themselves with a sack strip fumble (Bills 29 yard line) and a late pick 6 that directly led to 10 defensive points.

Tom Brady threw for ZERO TDs and had a 85.8 passer rating and 54.5 QBR to finish the night



While the Patriots can never be underestimated with Tom Brady leading the charge, this is not an Offensive performance worth bragging about. This recent NE team is very beatable even for an average performing team. If GB has any early success or gets started scoring early, if anything you can expect this to be a tough game for NE to win. The reason Belichik has been so cordial lately is he absolutely knows it and, unlike some of the bolder Patriots fan base who recently are desperately trying to keep the focus off their own recent Offensive struggles, Bill is wise enough not to fall into the trap of setting false expectations and creating a major letdown this weekend.
While GB is certainly an underdog, GB has little to lose and everything to gain this week in creating an upset on the road, against a team who constantly demands respect.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Matchup Stats

Passer Rating

Brady Passer Rating: 97.6 (incl. 7 INTs)
GB Passer Rating Against: 95.6 (incl. 5 INTs)

Rodgers Passer Rating: 100.4 (incl. 1 INT)
NE Passer Rating Against: 85.8 (incl. 11 INTs)

Sacks

NE Sacked: 11
GB Sacks: 23

GB Sacked: 24
NE Sacks: 12

Fumbles

NE Lost Fumbles: 6
GB Recovered Fumbles: 4

GB Lost Fumbles: 7
NE Recovered Fumbles: 5

Red Zone TDs

NE Red Zone TD%: 66%
GB Red Zone TD% Against: 62%

GB Red Zone TD%: 52%
NE Red Zone TD% Against: 58%

+20 yard TDs

NE +20 TD scores: 7 (3 pass, 1 run, 1 KO return, 1 blocked punt return, 1 pick six)
GB +20 TDs against: 7 (6 pass, 1 pick six)

GB +20 TD scores: 5 (4 pass, 1 run)
NE +20 TDs against: 5 (5 passes)

3rd. and 4th. Down Conversions

NE 3rd. Down Conversions: 43%
GB 3rd. Down Conversions Against: 38%

GB 3rd. Down Conversions: 39%
NE 3rd. Down Conversions Against: 43%

GB 4th. Down Coversions: 38% (3 for 8)
NE 4th. Down Conversions Against: 56% (5 for 9)

NE 4th. Down Coversions: 50% (2 for 4)
GB 4th. Down Conversions Against: 33% (1 for 3)

Rushing

NE Yards Per Carry: 4.1
GB Yards Per Carry Against: 4.4

GB Yards Per Carry: 4.8
NE Yards Per Carry Against: 4.4

NE First Downs Rushing: 60 on 227 carry, 26%
GB First Downs Rushing Against: 40 on 188 carries, 21%

GB First Downs Rushing: 46 on 151 carries, 30%
NE First Downs Rushing Against: 43 for 191, 23%

Penalties

GB net penalty yards per game: -14.8
NE net penalty yards per game: +10.6

GB net penalty first downs per game: -1.1
NE net penalty first downs per game: +0.3

 

[HardRightEdge]

Matchup Stats

Passer Rating

Brady Passer Rating: 97.6 (incl. 7 INTs)
GB Passer Rating Against: 95.6 (incl. 5 INTs)

Rodgers Passer Rating: 100.4 (incl. 1 INT)
NE Passer Rating Against: 85.8 (incl. 11 INTs)

Sacks

NE Sacked: 11
GB Sacks: 23

GB Sacked: 24
NE Sacks: 12

Fumbles

NE Lost Fumbles (incl. ST): 6
GB Recovered Fumbles (incl. ST): 4

GB Lost Fumbles (incl. ST): 7
NE Recovered Fumbles (incl. ST): 5

Red Zone TDs

NE Red Zone TD%: 66%
GB Red Zone TD% Against: 62%

GB Red Zone TD%: 52%
NE Red Zone TD% Against: 58%

+20 yard TDs

NE +20 TD scores: 7 (3 pass, 1 run, 1 KO return, 1 blocked punt return, 1 pick six)
GB +20 TDs against: 7 (6 pass, 1 pick six)

GB +20 TD scores: 5 (4 pass, 1 run)
NE +20 TDs against: 5 (5 passes)

3rd. and 4th. Down Conversions

NE 3rd. Down Conversions: 43%
GB 3rd. Down Conversions Against: 38%

GB 3rd. Down Conversions: 39%
NE 3rd. Down Conversions Against: 43%

GB 4th. Down Coversions: 38% (3 for 8)
NE 4th. Down Conversions Against: 56% (5 for 9)

NE 4th. Down Coversions: 50% (2 for 4)
GB 4th. Down Conversions Against: 33% (1 for 3)

Rushing

NE Yards Per Carry: 4.1
GB Yards Per Carry Against: 4.4

GB Yards Per Carry: 4.8
NE Yards Per Carry Against: 4.4

NE First Downs Rushing: 60 on 227 carry, 26%
GB First Downs Rushing Against: 40 on 188 carries, 21%

GB First Downs Rushing: 46 on 151 carries, 30%
NE First Downs Rushing Against: 43 for 191, 23%

Penalties

GB net penalty yards per game: -14.8
NE net penalty yards per game: +10.6

GB net penalty first downs per game: -1.1
NE net penalty first downs per game: +0.3

Matchup Stats Observations

The stats indicate the only major matchup factor differentiating these teams other than home field advantage is red zone performance, suggesting the key to a Packer upset is either outperforming their season averages on offense and/or defense in the red red zone or NE underperforming, which are just two sides of the same coin. If these teams play to their season mean performances, these matchup breakdowns suggest a spread in the range of NE -8 to -9. I did not look at the betting line this week until right now. It started at -7 and now sits at -5. I suppose the drop is a result of NE O-Line injuries.

Other than red zone and home field, these teams playing to their mean performance to date is about a wash.

Passer Rating - slight edge NE:

NE's good passer rating against would appear to give NE the edge. However, that's largly a function of the 11 INTs. Rodgers throws none in a typical game, thereby neutralizing the advantage. Brady's 7 picks in 8 games is uncharacteristically high, leading to a sub-100 passer rating. However, the Packers have not been very opportunistic in this regard while the guy accounting for most of their picks has been traded.

Sacks - edge GB:

Quite the contrast. NE yields few and gathers few. The Packers are the opposite in like proportion. NE O-Line injuries should tip the balance toward the Packers

Fumbles - slight edge NE:

NE is -1, GB is -3. Over 7 1/2 games the 2 fumble advantage = 0.27 fumble per game NE advantage.

Red Zone TDs - big edge NE:

NE has a 14% edge on offense and a 4% edge on defense for a net 18% edge. This is significant.

Let's say in a typical game each team gets 4 tries in the red zone, a total of 8. The typical result is either 7 or 3 points. The typical difference between 100% and 0% TD success for 8 instances is 56 - 24 = 32 points.

Having an 18% edge equates to 32 x .18 = 5.8 points. That ain't chicken feed.

+20 Yard TDs - slight edge NE

Underperforming in the red zone can be offset by a propensity to score from long range, +20 yards. GB's differerential is -2. NE's is +2. However, 3 of NEs +20 TDs came on special teams and a pick 6. Non-offensive long play TDs are abberations. Of all these stats, non-offensive long TD past perferformance is least indicative of future results.

3rd. and 4th. Down Coversions - slight edge GB

The 3rd. down coversion matchup is a wash with NE 4% better on offense, GB 5% better on defense.

The Packers get a slight edge on 4th. down conversions chiefly on NE's poor 5 for 9 defensive performance. It's such a small sample size and the situation has arisen on an average of slighly more than once per game for these teams taken together. I'll give the Packers a slight edge on NE's poor performance.

Rushing - edge GB

GB's YPC of 4.8 YPC vs NE's 4.1 YPC, while both defenses are at 4.4 against, giving the Packers a meaningful 0.7 YPC edge.

NE gets 5% more first downs per rush, 1 per game relative to GB or NE attempts of 25 per game.

Net edge to GB.

Penalties - edge NE

NE has a net +25.5 yards per game and a net +1.4 first down edges on penalties. This is meaningful.

 

[rmontro]

The main things that concern me about this game are
1) The Patriots are really good at home
2) The Packers had excellent effort last week against the Rams, and it was all for naught.

 

[shockerx]

Good stuff.. But maybe if we avoid a fake punt, a punt downed on the one, a 25 yard punt and a fumble on a kickoff we can beat these guys. Special Teams has to play much better.

 

[Mondio]

The main things that concern me about this game are
1) The Patriots are really good at home
2) The Packers had excellent effort last week against the Rams, and it was all for naught.

I agree. Even if we've been humming on offense all year and everything is hunky dory in Packerland, it's still the Patriots in New England. That's a tough game every time.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Good stuff.. But maybe if we avoid a fake punt, a punt downed on the one, a 25 yard punt and a fumble on a kickoff we can beat these guys. Special Teams has to play much better.

You have to consider Newton's 3 Laws of Football Error Dynamics :

1. A team that persists in a state of committing critical errors will continue in a straight line unless it is compelled to change that state by a force impressed upon it.

2. The effect of an error is equal to the change in momentum relative to change in field position. EE = M/CFP

3. For every error there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Seriously, though, just as winning and losing are habits so is making critical mistakes. It is a function of talent, experience, discipline, attention to detail.

 

[BostonBlackie]

............... unlike some of the bolder Patriots fan base who recently are desperately trying to keep the focus off their own recent Offensive struggles, Bill is wise enough not to fall into the trap of setting false expectations and creating a major letdown this weekend.

No one I know around here harbors any false expectations about the Patriots offense. The question is how do we keep winning these races with a 3 legged horse?

As for Belichick being cordial, one, he always talks up our next opponent, and two, he undoubtedly respects the hell out of Rodgers.

 

[pacmaniac]

Rewatched highlights from the 2014 game. Forgot Davante had a drop while crossing the goal line. We should have won 33-21.

Also Brady seemed really emotional throughout the game - not just his repeated Fs at the end. He knows his legacy is dependent on him beating the other top QB in the league.

 

[BostonBlackie]

Ha ha

 

[HardRightEdge]

[Brady] knows his legacy is dependent on him beating the other top QB in the league.

I don't see how he would. As Rodgers himself said this week, to paraphrase, "5 rings ends the discussion".

Brady wants to beat the other top QB in the league (though Brees might have something to say about that) because he is highly competitive. His legacy is secure.