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Week 16 who to root for

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by adambr2, Dec 19, 2014.

  1. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Washington - A Redskins win over the Eagles, though unlikely, gives the Packers a "win and they're in" game at noon at Sunday.

    Dallas - Yes, it's strangely a Cowboy WIN over the Colts that helps the Packers. It seems counterproductive, but Dallas winning helps us.

    If both of those things happen, we're in without needing anything else. Basically, 2 out of 3 of us, Washington, and Dallas winning gets us in.

    Arizona - This is personal preference on my part. If Arizona wins, they lock up the #1 seed. Why is that good? Well, it assures that Seattle will need 3 wins to get to the Super Bowl and are almost surely going to be playing all 3 on the road. That would be a huge hit to arguably out biggest competition to get to SB49.

    If you were holding out hope for a Bears win over Detroit, don't bother. Even should that happen, we still need to take care of business in Week 17 against Detroit. If it helps you sleep better, the only difference it would make is that it would only take a tie instead of a win vs the Lions.
     
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  2. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Make it simple: THE PACKERS! :D
     
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  3. red4tribe

    red4tribe Cheesehead

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    I really want Arizona to win. Going to Seattle will not end well for us.
     
  4. Pack12TX

    Pack12TX Cheesehead

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    I don't know - while I don't want to go to Seattle, a piece of me wants revenge from Week 1. I know, I know - be careful what I ask for, right? I honestly feel like any team can beat another on any given Sunday. While it would take a Herculean effort to beat them, I still think they can.

    Just imaging this - the loudest stadium in the NFL (Century link) becomes silent as the final whistle blows in the NFC Championship.....

    Our Team, Our Year.
     
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  5. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I've been posting it for several days (although some didn't believe me) that a Cowboys win actually helps the Packers. Now it would be great if the guys on the league's website would realize it as well.
     
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  6. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    You're right, I noticed that too. ESPN, CBS, and others have it right, but the NFL's own website incorrectly says they need a Dallas loss, not win.

    You'd think that if a bunch of dudes at home using ESPN Playoff Machine can figure it out, the NFL could too, but I guess not.
     
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  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Yup. It's simply a case of the Packers being locked in if there's a Wild Card tie with Philly, whereas most Wild Card tie scenarios against the others put the Packers on the losing end.

    Of course if the Packers could be guaranteed a win in week 17 for the Division title, it would be reasonable to prefer Philly as a possible playoff opponent as opposed to Dallas. Besides Philly looking more ordinary since Sanchez took over, the fact Philly leads the league in +20 plays surrendered (reminiscent of the 2011 Packers) despite decent macro numbers plays into Rodgers' wheelhouse, which we've already seen once.

    While Dallas' defense is not fear inspiring, with a poor pass rush (23 sacks) while surrendering a lot of short throws (66.4% against), they have had decent success keeping passes out of the end zone. That style is not a preferred match up.

    But that's cart-in-front-of-the-horse stuff. The animal metaphor that applies best is "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

    Go Dallas!
     
  8. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Here is the logic as best as I can decipher and explain without going on a very long-winded unreadable tangent:

    We automatically hold the tiebreaker over Philly (head to head), and right now, we would own the tiebreaker over Dallas (conf. record). However, Philly holds the division tiebreaker over Dallas (div. record).

    Here is where Dallas beating Indy comes into play. If Dallas LOSES to Indy and we lose either remaining game, our conference records will be tied, and they then have the tiebreaker on us via common games record. This sets up a potential doomsday scenario for us where us, Philly, and Dallas all tie at 11-5. Philly wins the division, and Dallas (and Seattle or Arizona) get the wild cards over us.

    If Dallas beats Indy, we are safe from this scenario. Even if all 3 teams tied at 11-5 and Philly won the East, we would still win the tiebreaker over Dallas on conference record.
     
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  9. PackerfaninCarolina

    PackerfaninCarolina Cheesehead

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    The Only team outside of us I'm wanting to see in is the Cardinals. Detroit's game at Chicago doesn't matter unless we squander the Tampa Bay game, which hopefully we will not. Bottom line, we just need to take care of business and then hope the Cards do theirs.
     
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  10. PackerfaninCarolina

    PackerfaninCarolina Cheesehead

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    I think I see what you're saying here. And correct me if I'm wrong.

    Assuming for us, we by another series of bad luck, dropped this one against Tampa, or just plain old lost to Detroit, it would stack up like this

    Detroit Division winner at 11-5
    Packers as runner-ups at 11-5

    our conference record would sit at 8-4

    Assuming if that holds true, if Dallas loses the game vs Indy but wins vs Washington and Philadelphia wins their remainers, I believe the Cowboys would get the wildcard spot regardless of what happens in the NFC West because they have wins over our 2 common opponents in New Orleans and Seattle in addition to tied conference records. So yes I see what you're saying.

    That being said, we can also hope for a Redskin or Giants win over the Eagles, because if that happens, Philly is likely out of the playoffs. and would probably give us an automatic in.

    Another interesting scenario is what happens if the Cardinals lose out but we win one of our remaining two. We'll have tied conference records, but I think we might win the tiebreakers over them. This isn't likely, but with them down to Lindley at QB, it's possible even the cruddy 49ers might pull one on them.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    In this case the Cowboys would win the tie-breaker because of a 4-1 record in common games compared to the Packers being 3-2.

    If the Packers win one of their remaining games a loss by the Eagles would clinch a playoff spot.

    The Cardinals would win the tie-breaker vs. the Packer because of a higher strength of victory.
     
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  12. PackerDNA

    PackerDNA Cheesehead

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    Odds are pretty good that we end up no better than the #2 seed.
    So, for me , the question is if we make it to the NFC title game, and the opponent is either the Cardinals or Seahawks on the road, who would you rather play?
     
  13. Jdeed

    Jdeed Cheesehead

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    ok nm dallas wins helps colts win hurts.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2014
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Just as a point of clarification, Arizona has already clinched at least a Wild Card spot. So any Wild Card tie breaker scenarios are limited to Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle and Philly.
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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  16. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    Part of me would say Seattle because I think and want to beat them there so badly but the weather forecast at the time of that game in Seattle will be windy and rainy. Like a nasty windy and rainy. So not to take anything away from the Cards or my respect for there defense I would prefer the confines of warm weather due to the profile of our offense in a playoff road game. I mean with our "3 receiver set" and not having a big dominant TE threat to take the pressure off moves me to not liking anything about "windy and rainy".

    I'm cheering for the Cards Sunday night. It would be great to see the Seahawks end up in the Superdome in a reversal of roles of the January 2011 wild card game between these two teams.

    So that should tell you I believe both New Orleans and Dallas will win this weekend too.
     
  17. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    There's no doubt I would rather play the Cardinals starting either Drew Stanton or Ryan Lindley at QB than have to go to Seattle.
     
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  18. Hincha

    Hincha Cheesehead

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    I like simple.... PACKERS! :tup:
     
  19. Carl

    Carl Cheesehead

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    The Packers should get a tie every season like last year so we don't have to think about all these scenarios.
     
  20. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    I'd rather just win 'em all so tie breakers are irrelevant.
     
  21. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    Done.

    It can potentially be good for the Packers either way in this game. If you're still holding out for HFA, you want Seattle to beat Arizona and then the Rams to beat Seattle. However, if the Rams don't come through, Seattle ends up with HFA. That said, I like our SB chances better with an Arizona win tomorrow. I'm not terribly worried about going to Arizona in the NFCC. If Cards win tomorrow and we win out, I think the most likely NFCC scenario would be Seattle at Lambeau, and I really like our chances in that game.
     
  22. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Me too. I'm not saying we can't win in Seattle, but given the option, I would certainly take Arizona, good weather, less hostile crowd, more beatable secondary, and ??? at QB in the NFC Championship anyday.
     
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  23. GoPGo

    GoPGo Cheesehead

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    I think the Cards and Seahawks are a pretty good match. That's why I think chances are good if the Cards win tomorrow we would see the NFCC at Lambeau. I think it would be tough for either of those teams beating the other twice in a row. Obviously, this would be if we win out and then win a home Divisional game first.
     
  24. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    I am all in for the Cards tomorrow. I think the 2 seed is the best seed for the pack.
     
  25. Twiddlemylobes

    Twiddlemylobes Fat Tuesday Orleans

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    Hey Carl, What is MAtt Flynn wearing to Christmas Dinner?
    A tie
     
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