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Week 11: Packers @ Colts
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 889395" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p><strong>Defense:</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>The Colts at #1 in the league in yards allowed per play at 4.8 (Packers at 5th best on offense at 6.5).</p><p></p><p>Their scoring defense is 4th best at 19.7 ppg allowed (Packers are 3rd best at 30.8 ppg scored).</p><p></p><p>They allowed a mere 3.5 yards per carry on average, which is 3rd in the league.</p><p></p><p>And their net yards per attempt allowed in the passing game is 5.8, which is 5th best.</p><p></p><p>Pro Football Reference has them 12th in pressure %, but that's without blitzing very much at all (their 19.4% blitz rate is 3rd to last in the league).</p><p></p><p>They rush four, they cover, and they <em>tackle</em>. Their 35 missed tackles as a team is the lowest number league wide. Packers more than double that number at 72.</p><p></p><p>The hole in the armor, if you want to call it that, appears to be 3rd down conversions. They allow 40.5% of 3rd downs to be converted, which is basically league average. The Packers' offense is one of the best 3rd down units in the league (overall, but they lack in short yardage).</p><p></p><p><strong>Offense:</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>The Colts are 15th in the league in yards gained per play at 5.7 (Packers at 19th on defense at 5.8 allowed).</p><p></p><p>Their scoring offense is 14th at 26.9 ppg allowed (Packers at 15th on defense at 24.9 allowed).</p><p></p><p>They gain a paltry 3.8 yards per attempt on the ground 27th overall (Packers allowed 4.6 YPA which is 23rd).</p><p></p><p>Their net yards gained per attempt is pretty strong at 7.2, 7th in the league (Packers allow 6.7, which is 21st).</p><p></p><p>Rivers has only been sacked 9 times on the season, for the lowest percentage in the league (2.7%). He gets the ball out extremely quickly.</p><p></p><p>Because their offense relies on a quick passing game, tackling is paramount. The Packers can't give the terrible effort we've seen at times.</p><p></p><p>Their 3rd down conversion % is terrible at 37.5, which is 30th in the league. Green Bay's defense is 15th overall at 39.8% allowed.</p><p></p><p><strong>My Take:</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>I think this game will come down to 3rd downs. The Colts defense is extremely tough, with very few weaknesses.</p><p></p><p>The Packers will most likely not break off many big chunk plays. But if they can methodically attack the defense with long drives, converting on 3rd downs, they can score on this unit.</p><p></p><p>On defense, the Packers will need to play with more intensity, swarming to the ball and getting guys on the ground. The Colts offense is efficient in ways, but not on 3rd downs. Tackle and force their drives to end in a kick (either FG or punt) and they should be in good stead.</p><p></p><p>I'm going to optimistically predict that the defense shows up with better intensity and predict a final score of 27-23.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 889395, member: 12283"] [B]Defense: [/B] The Colts at #1 in the league in yards allowed per play at 4.8 (Packers at 5th best on offense at 6.5). Their scoring defense is 4th best at 19.7 ppg allowed (Packers are 3rd best at 30.8 ppg scored). They allowed a mere 3.5 yards per carry on average, which is 3rd in the league. And their net yards per attempt allowed in the passing game is 5.8, which is 5th best. Pro Football Reference has them 12th in pressure %, but that's without blitzing very much at all (their 19.4% blitz rate is 3rd to last in the league). They rush four, they cover, and they [I]tackle[/I]. Their 35 missed tackles as a team is the lowest number league wide. Packers more than double that number at 72. The hole in the armor, if you want to call it that, appears to be 3rd down conversions. They allow 40.5% of 3rd downs to be converted, which is basically league average. The Packers' offense is one of the best 3rd down units in the league (overall, but they lack in short yardage). [B]Offense: [/B] The Colts are 15th in the league in yards gained per play at 5.7 (Packers at 19th on defense at 5.8 allowed). Their scoring offense is 14th at 26.9 ppg allowed (Packers at 15th on defense at 24.9 allowed). They gain a paltry 3.8 yards per attempt on the ground 27th overall (Packers allowed 4.6 YPA which is 23rd). Their net yards gained per attempt is pretty strong at 7.2, 7th in the league (Packers allow 6.7, which is 21st). Rivers has only been sacked 9 times on the season, for the lowest percentage in the league (2.7%). He gets the ball out extremely quickly. Because their offense relies on a quick passing game, tackling is paramount. The Packers can't give the terrible effort we've seen at times. Their 3rd down conversion % is terrible at 37.5, which is 30th in the league. Green Bay's defense is 15th overall at 39.8% allowed. [B]My Take: [/B] I think this game will come down to 3rd downs. The Colts defense is extremely tough, with very few weaknesses. The Packers will most likely not break off many big chunk plays. But if they can methodically attack the defense with long drives, converting on 3rd downs, they can score on this unit. On defense, the Packers will need to play with more intensity, swarming to the ball and getting guys on the ground. The Colts offense is efficient in ways, but not on 3rd downs. Tackle and force their drives to end in a kick (either FG or punt) and they should be in good stead. I'm going to optimistically predict that the defense shows up with better intensity and predict a final score of 27-23. [/QUOTE]
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