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Week 1: Green Bay at Chicago in Primetime!
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 841179"><p>Raw sack numbers isolated to one game can be misleading. If it's a first down scramble with a one yard loss, the damage is not very great. A strip sack turnover is very costly.</p><p></p><p>An underappreciated and underanalyzed aspect of drive killing is the 10 and 15 yard offensive penalties, mostly offensive holding along with the occasional illegal use of hands and the less common face mask. An offensive line's propensity to hold can be more damaging in a particular game than an equal number of sacks surrendered.</p><p></p><p>To take an example, the consensus following Bakhtiari's very solid rookie season was he needed to improve his run blocking. While that was true, his high penalty count was an equal area for improvement. I recall posting the numbers at the time with no reaction.</p><p></p><p>Consider his 2013 penalty stats:</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2013" target="_blank">http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2013</a></p><p></p><p>Compare to his 2018 All Pro penalty stats:</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2018" target="_blank">http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2018</a></p><p></p><p>The decline in 10+ yard penalties from 8 to 2, for just one player, is significant.</p><p></p><p>While PFF made a point of Jenkins' zero pressures on some 45 pass protection snaps through preseason week 2, I noted two holding calls in one game. While his run blocking left something to be desired, especially second level blocks, these penalties would also have been a factor in the starter decision.</p><p></p><p>Compare to Lane Taylor's penalty count from last season:</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/l-taylor-green-bay-packers?year=2018" target="_blank">http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/l-taylor-green-bay-packers?year=2018</a></p><p></p><p>In PFF's -2 to +2 scoring of each player's every play, I would not be entirely confident they accurately capture the negative affects of penalties.</p><p></p><p>In general, penalties are an underappreciated and underanalyzed aspect of team performance. We quote yardage gained and yardage surrendered stats as one measure of offensive and defensive performance without making adjustments for penalties.</p><p></p><p>Even if those adjustments are made, gross yards alone don't account for drive killing affects (or drive extending on the defensive side). Then there's the matter of special teams penalties which are field position killers. These penalties are particularly thorny. A needless hold or block in the back away from the ball can cost lost yardage on a return in addition to the penalty yards which exists but can't be statistically measured.</p><p></p><p>On an encouraging note, the Titans were the least penalized team in the league last season on both occurrances and yards, 5.1 penalties per game for 45.4 yards. The Chief's were the most penalized, with 8.2 per game for 68.6 yards. That difference is not trivial, probably worth a point or two in spread per game.</p><p></p><p>Where we would like to see LaFluer's emphasis on penalty discipline show up in particular, if there is one to be had as the data might indicate, would be in a filtering down to a Mennengas improvement in the return game. The mistakes were simply to frequent last season, and not just in penalties which were frequent. A generalized emphais on role discipline might avoid things like having a punt bounce off King for a touchdown or Davis letting punts hit the ground as often as has been his habit.</p><p></p><p>These are small things that add up to points.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 841179"] Raw sack numbers isolated to one game can be misleading. If it's a first down scramble with a one yard loss, the damage is not very great. A strip sack turnover is very costly. An underappreciated and underanalyzed aspect of drive killing is the 10 and 15 yard offensive penalties, mostly offensive holding along with the occasional illegal use of hands and the less common face mask. An offensive line's propensity to hold can be more damaging in a particular game than an equal number of sacks surrendered. To take an example, the consensus following Bakhtiari's very solid rookie season was he needed to improve his run blocking. While that was true, his high penalty count was an equal area for improvement. I recall posting the numbers at the time with no reaction. Consider his 2013 penalty stats: [URL]http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2013[/URL] Compare to his 2018 All Pro penalty stats: [URL]http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/d-bakhtiari-green-bay-packers?year=2018[/URL] The decline in 10+ yard penalties from 8 to 2, for just one player, is significant. While PFF made a point of Jenkins' zero pressures on some 45 pass protection snaps through preseason week 2, I noted two holding calls in one game. While his run blocking left something to be desired, especially second level blocks, these penalties would also have been a factor in the starter decision. Compare to Lane Taylor's penalty count from last season: [URL]http://www.nflpenalties.com/player/l-taylor-green-bay-packers?year=2018[/URL] In PFF's -2 to +2 scoring of each player's every play, I would not be entirely confident they accurately capture the negative affects of penalties. In general, penalties are an underappreciated and underanalyzed aspect of team performance. We quote yardage gained and yardage surrendered stats as one measure of offensive and defensive performance without making adjustments for penalties. Even if those adjustments are made, gross yards alone don't account for drive killing affects (or drive extending on the defensive side). Then there's the matter of special teams penalties which are field position killers. These penalties are particularly thorny. A needless hold or block in the back away from the ball can cost lost yardage on a return in addition to the penalty yards which exists but can't be statistically measured. On an encouraging note, the Titans were the least penalized team in the league last season on both occurrances and yards, 5.1 penalties per game for 45.4 yards. The Chief's were the most penalized, with 8.2 per game for 68.6 yards. That difference is not trivial, probably worth a point or two in spread per game. Where we would like to see LaFluer's emphasis on penalty discipline show up in particular, if there is one to be had as the data might indicate, would be in a filtering down to a Mennengas improvement in the return game. The mistakes were simply to frequent last season, and not just in penalties which were frequent. A generalized emphais on role discipline might avoid things like having a punt bounce off King for a touchdown or Davis letting punts hit the ground as often as has been his habit. These are small things that add up to points. [/QUOTE]
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